Forum Replies Created
-
XAUUSD DAILY:Mission accomplished?
Is the brief break and stops run below 4000 and 3996 (low 3987) mission accomplished? While only time will tell as 4000 is clearly pivotal in dictating its tone going forward, a move back above 4066, at a minimum, would be needed to shift the focus away from it. A level bulls do not want to see broken is 3941.
Forex Market Snapshot
EURUSD: Unable to shake a focus from 1.12, currently trading below, as elevated French vs. German bond yield spreads and PMI misses (led by by France) weigh. 1.1150-80 needs to hold to keep the focus on 1.12 and away from the 1.1113 low. Event risk today: Moody’s French credit review (sometme after US markets close)
USDJPY: Remains on the defensive with the focus still on 157 (currently below it) after the overnight plunge paused just above 156. Watch US bond yields for any correlations.
GBPUSD: Retail Sales miss offset by PMI beat. Charts show a lower high off the 1.3419 top, making it dependent on 1.3350-55 holding to keep a bid and prevent down momentum from taking over. Note GBP lagging vs EUR duw to weak EURGBP.
Market Update: Yields slide
US bonds getting a safe haven bid as the lead NAS100 briefly breaks its low, leaving 29K blocking the key level at 28755.
The dollar elsewhere is off its highs as yields slide while USDJPY is off its low (but still well down on the day) after pausing above 156.64 in what should remain defensive trading.
USD500 (following) vs. NAS100: (leading) 4 HOUR
US500: Failure to hold a brief break above 7765 leaves it dependent on 7664 holding to prevent the 7631 low and key 7607 becoming exposed
NAS100: Failure to reach 30027 leaves it dependent on 29210 holding or risk shifts to the 29072 low and the key 28755 level.
Market Update: Risk off
Stocks tumbling after Meta and Tesla earnings failed to impress, weighing on yields with USDJPY following.
USDJPY currently pivoting 157.00 (low 156.82) with key support at 156.37 the last line of defense before a void on the downside. Upside limited unless 157.50+ is regained.
XAUUSD failing again to catch a safe haven bid with its tumble testing and holding its 4066 low for a double bottom. However, this is so far only offering a respite as back above 4106 is needed to cool the risk.
Tesla
Tesla’s Q3 revenue was flat at $28.05B, in line with forecasts. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.48 beat the ~$0.45 consensus. Gross margin recovered to 19.6%, but operating income fell 56% to $718M as AI and Optimus spending climbed. Free cash flow swung back positive at $1.53B. The earnings call is at 5:30 pm ET.
Meta
Meta beat on both lines. Q3 revenue came in at $64.6B, up 26% y/y, against roughly $63.3B expected, and EPS was $3.83 versus about $3.57. A $9.9B legal charge pushed operating income down 37%; excluding it, EPS would have been $7.40. Q4 revenue guidance was above consensus, and shares rose after hours.
Dollar Steady, Yields Parked Above 5%
Treasuries barely moved: the 10-year was near 5.11%, the 2-year rose 2bp to 4.80%, and the 30-year eased to 5.42%. The euro is under pressure from fiscal concerns in France, trading near 1.1225. Buyers have support near 1.1190 but have yet to clear resistance at 1.1245.
Gold Slips for a Fourth Straight Session
Spot gold fell for a fourth straight session to around $4,121, hitting its lowest since October 15 in earlier trade. The driver is oil feeding rate expectations. Hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI last week showed price pressures remain elevated on soaring energy prices. Gold is down about 5.4% over the past month.
Brent Back Above $110, Then Fades
Oil jumped more than $2, with Brent reaching $110.85 by 1048 GMT. The EIA added fuel: US crude inventories dropped 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million, more than the expected 820,000-barrel decline. The gains didn’t hold, though. Brent later stood at $109.04 and WTI at $97.72
US500 vs NAS100 (4 hour CFD charts)
US500: Break of 7765 so far not holding (high 7772), firmly above still needed to confirm a shift in risk and build momentum for a run at 7800+. Otherwise, upside cools but keeps a bid as long as 7700+ trades.
NAS100: As noted, has a bigger hill to climb to negate its risk where 30027 needs to be taken out to indicate a shift.
US500 vs NAS100 (4 hour CFD charts)
US500 trying to break a 6-day pivot around 7700, which would be a bullish sign but only confirmed by a firm break of 7765.
NAS100 has more of an uphill climb with 30027 needing to be taken out to confirm a break in momentum. Key focus is looking ahead to earnings reports after the close.
USDX (US DOLLAR INDEX) 4 HOUR: Lagging indicator
On the defensive as the dollar side seems to be having more trouble absorbing the various cross flows. Key support is at 101.51 with a weaker EUR (e.g. EURGBP) making USDX more of a lagging than leading indicator. Note EUR represents 57.6% of the index.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) raised its outlook on stronger demand for AI systems,
SpaceX (SPCX) gained after results as AI revenue and Starlink growth encouraged buyers.
Netflix (NFLX), meanwhile, fell after a disappointing fourth-quarter outlook overshadowed better-than-expected earnings, a reminder that beating estimates does not guarantee a higher stock price.
