[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: Post data

Limited reaction to US data (GDP, PCE, Jobless Claims). EURUSD back near neutral 1.1150 (caps upside while below it) ahead of the ECB, US stocks, led by NAS struggling, but within existing ranges.

[Adam Global]

Premarket

[Adam Global]

Oil 🛢 is 📈consolidating📉 & waiting for next week 🇺🇸 Election scenario 🇺🇸

[Adam Global]

ßitcoin disappointed some buyers 📈 after failing to break $81.5K but $80K still supporting 📈

[Adam Global]

GOLD is waiting for advance GDP, Core PCE price index & unemployment claims since federal rates didn’t change the overview outlook for GOLD

[Adam Global]

EURGBP is consolidating near 0.8356, a multi-month📉 low, after breaking below the key 0.8455 support area earlier this month

[Adam Global]

EURUSD is on a ECB countdown 🔄 as high inflation & French debt worries complicate main refinancing rates

[GVI Forex 2]

Up Next: US Economic Data (focus on inflation)

SEE CONSENSUS FORECASTS

 

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR: Waiting for the ECB

Bounce from a double bottom (1.1113) and higher low not going far enough to break the downside risk. For that to happen, 1.,1195 would need to be taken out.

This keeps EURUSD on the defensive (while below 1.1150) but consolidating ahead of the ECB meeting where the surprise would be a rate hike.

Note for US traders: ECB decision is due at 9:15 EDT, one hour later than usual as US clocks do not due fall back until Sunday

ECB President Lagarde announces she will step down after the February 2027 meeting.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 1 HOUR:  Negative tilt within a 4000-4100 range?

Short-term momentum turning down (blue lines) but so far just a swing within a 4000-4100 range with key supports outside of it at 3975-3989 (double bottom). .

Back above 4046-50 would be needed to shift the current negative tilt the other way.

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

The dollar is trading on the firm side after selling following the FOMC saw limited follow through., CHF and JPY lagging as US yields dip along with softer crude oik prices.

• EURUSD:: On the defensive (while below 1.1150) ahead of the ECB decision.
• USDJPY: Bounce off a 157.60 low keeps 158 pivotal amid defense ahead of Friday’s BoJ meeting.
• GBPUSD: Clinging to a bid above 1.33 after a stop run below yesterday failed to follow through.
• USDCAD:: Back to unchanged as focus stays on pivotal 1.40 to set its tone after a bounce from just above its 1.3968 low (near double bottom)
• AUDUSD; Still bid above .7000 but again struggled to hold above .7050

[GVI Forex 2]

2 CB meetings down, 2 more to go this week.  Next up: ECB Policy Announcement on Thursday

SEE DETAILED PREVIEW

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: Closing Indices

Take your pick what stands out after a wild ride after earnings. NAS100 bounced off 30K while US500 stop run through 7772 stalled as both lacked follow through. So an inconclusive (but disappointing) close

[GVI Forex 2]

Alphabet Misses Earnings and Revenue Estimates Despite Cloud Strength

Alphabet (GOOGL) reported third-quarter 2026 earnings of $2.12 per share, below the $3.03 forecast. Revenue totaled $127.6 billion, slightly short of expectations for $127.91 billion. Operating income came in at $40.58 billion, missing the projected $43.16 billion. Google Services revenue of $96.30 billion also fell below the $98.4 billion estimate, while Google Search and other revenue reached $63.35 billion versus expectations of $64.85 billion.

[GVI Forex 2]

Microsoft Tops Earnings and Revenue Forecasts in Fiscal Q1

Microsoft (MSFT) reported fiscal first-quarter 2027 earnings of $4.92 per share, exceeding expectations of $4.72. Revenue reached $92.3 billion, beating the $90.6 billion forecast. Operating income also came in above estimates at $45.9 billion, compared with expectations of $44.1 billion. Net income totaled $36.6 billion, surpassing the projected $35.1 billion. The results put Microsoft ahead of forecasts across all four reported measures, with revenue exceeding expectations by $1.7 billion and earnings per share beating estimates by 20 cents.

[GVI Forex 2]

US Bond Yield Snapshot Post-FOMC

Mixed with yield curve steepening, 2 year down, 10 and 30 year up. FX market (USD down) . Stocks waiting for earnings.

[GVI Forex 2]

No surprise

Fed keeps rates unchanged as expected…. vote was not unanimous (2 dissenters)… next up Fed Chair Warsh’s presser

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: FX, Stocks, Gold pre-FOMC

Yields backing off highs but still up on the day

[Adam Global]

US500 index is extending a three-session rebound from the April uptrend line near 7,615 & more bullish 📈 is expected to go beyond all time high

[GVI Forex 2]

Bond Yields Snapshot

Yields moving up ahead of the FOMC as crude oil is up sharply. Few ripple effects but may be weighing on the JPY and CHF.

[GVI Forex 2]

CME FedWatch: Dec 9 FOMC meeting

Markets pricing in around 93$ odds for no change at today’s meeting and around 88% odds for a December rate hike.

[GVI Forex 2]

Earnings Snapshot

US stock bulls hoping to get through the FOMC and get a lift from US earnings reports, specifically ALphabet and MSFT after the close

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR: What about the BoJ?

With USDJPY trading back above 158, the question is whether there is a level the BoJ would not like to see broken. The level that stands out is 158.60, both chart resistance and the 200 day moving average. While below, 158 is the obvious pivotal level.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR (CFD): Trying…

Trying to build momentum to the upside (rising red lines) that would need to take out 7772 to shift the focus and put 7800+ in play again. If not, still keeps a bid while 7700-18+ trades but stronger bid if the upper end can hold as support

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR (CFD): What it will take…

Making a bid to break downside risk but to do so, 29935 and the key 4-hour trendline along with a firm move above 30K would be needed to confirm. Otherwise, needs to hold above 29130 to keep the downside in check. In any case, how it closes the day will be more important than how it starts out following the FOMC decision and key earnings reports (Alphabet and Microsoft).

[GVI Forex 2]

Bank of Canada Rate Decision

USDCAD back to pre-announcemnt levels (1.4050) after a choppy reaction to the expected 25bps rate hike  with the Bank of Canada raising the risk of further increases but indicating it will proceed with caution.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 4 HOUR: Waiting for the BoC

Surprise would be a BoC hold so assuming a rate hike, the reaction will be more important than the headline. In this regard, key levels on the upside are at 1.4082 and 1.4112 and on the downside, 1.3998 and 1.3968. Perhaps more important will be how it trades vs. 1.40

 

[GVI Forex 2]

BoC Rate Decision Preview

Rate hike, hawkish hike or dovish hike or non-commital, or long shot no change surprise – SEE DETAILED PREVIEW

 

 

[Adam Global]

EURUSD found resistance 📉 but the meltdown continues…maybe 1.11000 could be support 📈

[Adam Global]

Us100Cash bouncing 📈 off edging higher to 3000.00…..placed my buy limit on 28500.00 but 29000.00 remains a strong support 📈

[Author]

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