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This is a good read as markets continue to try and trade on hope with little success
Hope Is Not a Trading Strategy: Understanding Hope Trades
COMING UP: Data: Japanese Tankan Survey (Q3), Australian Trade Balance (Aug), Swiss CPI (Sep), US Challenger Job Cuts (Sep), Jobless Claims (Sep/26), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3) Events: BoJ SOO (Sep).
Speakers: BoE’s Bailey, Mann, Pill; ECB’s Cipollone, Lagarde, Schnabel; Fed’s Barkin, Collins, Schmid, Waller, Jefferson, Bowman, Cook, Williams, Logan; BoC’s Rogers.
Supply: Spain, France. Earnings: Accenture, McCormick, Nik
Newsquawk US Market Wrap – Stocks mixed and yields rise despite soft PCE
SNAPSHOT: Equities mixed, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold down.
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NAS100 4 HOUR: New month, new ball game?
‘Diverging with US500 abut run to the upside so far failed to stay above 30500, a level that could become pivotal if trade is between 30-31K.
Otherwise, for bulls to maintain control, 30100-30250 need to hold as support.
Test in the new quarter will be if stocks can keep a bid should US bond yields continue to march higher.
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR: 6 days in a row
Ending the quarter unable to shake a focus from 7700, which traded for the 6th day in a row. Weak close to the quarter, however, puts the risk on the downside where 7650 (tested) needs to hold to keep 7700 on the radar and thoughts away from 7600. Focus in the days ahead will be whether the weak close is month/quarter end driven nor there is more to it (e.g. weight of firmer bond yields).
EARNINGS PRIMER: Micron (MU) earnings due 30th September at 21:00BST/16:00EDT
Market Update: Month/Quarter End
A bit of a disconnect as month/quarter end flows dominate.
- OIl (up)
- Bond yields (still elevated but lower)
- Stocks; Rangebound but so far unable to regain a bid (e.g. US500 still below 7700)
- USD: Month/quarter end flows a factor: EURGBP (down), AUDJPY (down). GBPUSD up but so far meeting resistance at 1.3300, EURUSD lags. Keep an eye on the 4PM London fixing.
Wait on October
On the last day of a brutal third quarter for bonds, a few questions have emerged about the now overwhelmingly hawkish interest rate outlook.
Even though Treasury yields continued to climb on Tuesday, with the long bond yield hitting its highest point since 2002, US consumer confidence readings plunged to their lowest level since 2014 this month as August job openings also fell more than forecas… Reuters Morning Bid U.S,
Newsquawk Daily US Opening News – 30th September 2026
(Right click on any image (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)
USDCAD DAILY: One way street
It has been a one-way street up from the 1.3730 low over the past 3 weeks (all green candles except one small red one) that has come close to retracing the whole move down from 1.4247 (high 1.4201).
Best hope for the CAD would be if there are month/quarter end flows in its favor
If not, then 1.4200 is pivotal as firmly above would put 1.4247 on the radar.
Supports: 1.4175 (tested), 1.4139, 1.4129
XAUUSD 4 HOUR: Is the low
Bounce off 4110 would need to regain 4200 (tested, high 4202) to cool the downside risk, 4235+ to put it back into its old range.
If not,needs to hold 4165 to keep a bid focused on 4200.
Otherwise, look for 4150 to be pivotal in settiung the tone (bid above, offered below) while within 4100-4200
