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Despite booming earnings, Taiwan Semiconductor’s stock gapped down to a two-month low of 406 on Thursday before staging a comeback close near 421. Although it’s still resting 13% below October’s record-high of 486 the bulls managed to defend a vital Iong- term support trendline near 410, signaling that a bullish revival remains possible.
Newsquawk Daily US Opening News – 16th October 2026
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Bullish Key Reversal (after a downtrend): The week pushes to a lower low, then rallies strongly to close above the previous week’s close.
Vice versa for a Bearish Key Reversal.
While outside days happen frequently on daily charts, outside weeks are much rarer and carry significantly more weight on a weekly timeframe.
NOTE: To filter out false signals in currency trading, professional traders rarely trade a key reversal in isolation. They use a multi-variable confirmation system.
USDCAD DAILY: Outside week or reaction to a double top?
One way street up followed by consolidation and now an outside week (key reversal?) or a case can be made for a reaction to a double top as only a new high was made by 1 pip.
In any case, this leaves it dependent on 1.4150-54 holding to check the downside or face a void on the downside.
COMING UP: Data: EU Final Inflation (Sep), Italian Final Inflation (Sep), US Import/Export Prices (Sep), Industrial Production (Sep).
Speakers: BoE’s Bailey; Fed Chair Warsh; BoC’s Macklem.
Supply: Australia. Credit Ratings: Morningstar DBRS on Italy.
US Market Wrap: Stocks recover from recent weakness as AI concerns ease
SNAPSHOT: Equities mixed, Treasuries down, Crude mixed, Dollar down, Gold up
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NAS100 (NASDAQ) DAILY: History lesson
As posted earlier, history showing NAS retracements have proved short-lived and followed by news highs is again being put to the test.
To give history a chance to repeat,as a first step 30000-100+ would need to be regained and then see 30686 + the trendline broken.
BTCUSD vs ETHUSD
BTCUSD: I am not sure what to say about a 4 hour candle with a 3.6% range other than to say bids stepped in following a run through stops below 80K. That’s like a 400 pip candle in EURUSD. Is this mission accomplshed (i.e. stops below 80K) or just a pause before a fresh assault? In any case, 82K+ is needed to shift the focus from 80K.
ETHUSD: Performing better with a higher low above 2312. To translate this into momentum, 2500+ would be needed. Note 4 hour candle had a 5.4% range.
Market Update: Correlations
Correlation has been weaker stocks (led by NAS) => lower bond yields => weaker USD
Stocks rallying (NAS still below 30K, USA500 back above 7700) =< bond yields ticking up (10 year 5.098% vs. 5.038% low)=> modest correlations the other way (EURUSD back to 1.12, USDJPY back above 158)
US500 4 HOUR: Watch 7700
This caught my eye earlier: Yardeni cuts S&P target to 7,900 from 8,400; warning that investor caution could push stock valuations lower Meanwhile, focus has shifted to 7700 to set the tone as US500 follows a weaker NAS100 with a lag.
1) Should 7700 become resistance then 7617, a level bulls do not want to see broken, becomes a target.
2) If not, then needs to get back above 7707 and then 7732 (on this CFD chart) to be back in its old range.
Sept Retail Sales beat but only a brief reaction to slew of data with bond yields slipping following a brief uptick…so far limited ripple effects (e.g. USD dip) elsewhere… keep an eye on correlations with bond yields
s
