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XAUUSD 4 HOUR: Yields or safe haven?
Back into a 4000-4100 range after finding a visit above the upper end too tough to hold after the pause below key 4155 resistance.
As noted yesterday, 4029 was support that needed to hold to keep a bid. The pause above it today confirms this as a level that needs to hold to prevent exposing 3970-00.
Debate is whether softer US yields or safe haven buying is behind GOLD’s rebound.
Market Update Indices (Daily CFDFs)
While the bounce off lows (US500 paused just above the 7292 support level cited yesterday and NAS100 rebound back to 27K) might have bulls breathing a sigh of relief, it would take moves back above 7500 and 28K (and the 200 day mva) to signal anything more than a retracement.
US500 (SP500) DAILY (CFD): Meltdown
Meltdown may be an understatement with the solid move below 7500 and the former 7461 low opening a black hole. Rather than guess at the bottom, I will just point out key supports at 7292 (daily) and 7227 (weekly). Upside will be limited unless 7460-7500 is regained.
Given the stock market meltdown, is it time to call out the cavalry (i.e. Plunge Protection Team)? What is the Plunge Protection Team? The Plunge Protection Team, or PPT, is Wall Street’s nickname for the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets. Established in 1988 after the 1987 stock market crash, it brings together leaders from the Treasury, Federal Reserve, SEC and CFTC to coordinate responses to threats to market stability and investor confidence. Traders often credit the PPT when stocks suddenly rebound from a sharp selloff. The group’s formal responsibilities center on policy coordination and recommendations
US STOCKS MELTDOWN: WEEKLY
One look at these charts shows black holes of support below the market, where, at a minimum, US500 would need to regain 7461 and/or NAS100 27000+ to slow the risk (but 7500+ and/or 27500+ to provide breathing room, limited upside while below).
Given the volatility and extent of the meltdown, keep an eye on these levels for clues.
NAS100 (NASDAQ) 1 HOUR :(CFD): Freefall
There didn;t appear to be a specific headline that saw stocks go into freefall other than noting chipmakers and AI infrastructure shares are driving the selloff.
Qualcomm added to the pressure, falling about 10% before the open after disappointing smartphone chip sales reflected sluggish demand and lower Apple-related revenue. Meanwhile, concerns that opposition to data center development could intensify following the midterms are weighing on companies supplying chips, servers and power for the AI buildout.
NAS100 needs to regain 27500, at a minimum, or risk is for 27000
BoE hikes rates as expected (hawkish hike). Note reaction in EURGBP (weaker)
The Bank of England delivered a hawkish message alongside its expected 25-basis-point rate hike to 4.00%, with an 8–1 vote (one vote for 50bps). The BoE sees CPI inflation peaking around 5% in Q2 2027 and warned that the risk of second-round inflation effects has increased since September, adding that it will adjust Bank Rate as necessary.
Market Update (4 Hour)
Crude oil coming off its low following a plunge yesterday. has put glpabl markets in a wait-and-see mode.
EURUSD: Lower high would need to break 1.1213 to turn it into anything more than a pause to the upside and shift the risk back to 1.1180-00. NAS100 lagging as AI memory names weighing.
US500: Focus on 7700 after holding a test of the 7664 breakout level yesterday, which needs to hold to keep a bid.
(Right click on any image (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)
US30 (DJIA) DAILY (CFD): Outperforming
After outperforming yesterday with the best post-midterm day performance in 44 years, US30 is so far doing the same today. This has put it into a critical zone with 53820 and 54245 as obstacles to the record 54662 high. On this chart, needs to hold above 52949 to keep a bid pointed at key levels.
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