[GVI Forex 2]

THERE ARE SOME TIMELY ARTICLES DUE OUT NEXT WEEK, MAKING THIS A TIMELY ARTICLE WORTH READING

News that Moves the Forex Market

News that Moves the Forex Market

[SF Monedge]

JP – does this mean I should trade in my 1968 Peugeot ?  thank you in advance

[Mtl JP]

BoE stays pat at 5.25%
—
Paris Olympics defence system mistakes air conditioners for drones

Concern for the 500,000 Britons expected to attend the Paris Olympics has risen amid claims that France’s new €350 million anti-drone system cannot distinguish between unmanned terrorist and air conditioners.

personally … am not sure this was a smart idea to make it public, geezus

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 1 HOUR CHART – LOONIE TUNES

Sometimes the CAD is referred to as the Loonie and for good reason but not this time USDCAD was trading soft even when the USD moved higher earlier today. So it should be no surprise to see it trade down when the USD turned soft.

As this chart shows, there are layers of support between 1.3620-80 that needs to break for the move down to pick up steam.

Look for a limited upside if it stays below 1.3713.

Note the key Canadian jobs report is released on Friday.

[Mtl JP]

coming up
–
13:00 – 25 Bln of 30-yr paper
14:00 – daly — at some fireside chat (sounds so homey, friendly … doesn’t it)

[SF Monedge]

All Treasuries have flatlined in the sell cycle.  20yr has to eclipse and hold 91.70 to support Eur appreciation.  Eur-Aud-Gbp all bid overall albeit lacking drive at the moment.

[SF Monedge]

I think if the 30yr clears and holds 115’12 it would be unhealthy for the Dollar.  115’07 at present.

[michael Calif]

Option Profile remains SHORT June Gold futures from the Apr 19 TOP; new sell point 2355

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD just popped above 2332.

[SF Monedge]

Vix futures have been sideways for 12 hours with a slight undertow in volume (short side).  Dow covered calls fell off of a cliff around at session end yesterday, since there was zero impetus the odds were stacked that stocks would catch a bid today.  That said there is already an increase in underlying puts to a slight extent which could assist in putting a cap in the gains.  I like your 106 DXY notation earlier Jay.  Result with consideration to many other things could end up being some bit of a continuation in risk appetite only to be followed by an offered scenario in risk coming up I think.  Hence why I am already scaling in the long side of USD from below.

If the mood changes I switch, that simple.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART –

I was not even looking at gold until I saw commodity currencies rallying and this chart tells it all.

The failure to establish below 2300 has seen a pop that faces a resistance at 2332, If broken then 2352 becomes the target.

On the downside, XAUUSD keeps a bid as long as it stays above 2323.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD minor 4-hour down trendline at 1.0764 has been broken. One look at EURGBP will tell you where some of the demand is coming from. although the USD is softer in general despite a bounce back in bond yields. (4.502%)

[michael Calif]

for us, Option Profile remains SHORT USDJPY from the Apr 29 TOP despite the current rally.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – WARY OF THE BOJ

USDJPY has slipped into the background as the market seems wary of provoking the BoJ.

As I noted, the BoJ pays attention to the same technicals we do and in this regard will try to keep USDJPY below 156.28.

On the upside, USDJOY trades with a better bid while above 155 so currently trapped between 155.00-156.28.

Word of caution… be wary of an intervention surprise on a thin Friday but if I was the BoJ I would not be in a rush to intervene again with USDJ

[Mtl JP]

10-yr, DLRx, USDCHF, EURDLR
I am biased
–
biased to buy things dlr when energy vectors are at conjunction

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – BOUNCE OFF SUPPORT

EURUSD bounce off 1.0724 (AT) support has been enough to put the 1.0650 bias-setting level in play again.

Chart shows key resistance is distant and a down trendline still intact

Note a firm EURGBP (i.e. above .8600) provides some support.

[SF Monedge]

I think its unlikely the sell cycle in Dow runs out of steam overall until tomorrow and then the risk turns toward a bid bias.  Time will tell.  If so then 3880 would hold.

[GVI Forex 2]

Reaction to the weekly jobless claims shows the state of the market and how sensitive it is toi even 2nd or 3rd-tier data. US yields have ticked back up, looks like a Power of 50 in 10-year yields at 4.50% (last 4.4943% vs. 4.477% low post data)

[SF Monedge]

In the water long UsdChf / short European Union.

[SF Monedge]

Mixed reaction in 30yr Bond, as long as 115’10 holds then so should EurUsd 10700 I believe to this point.

[GVI Forex 2]

US weekly jobless claims rise more than expected

Yields dip, USD dips, stocks pop

Note this is not the BLS survey week

See our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART – Watch .8600

Looking at this chart, technicals are still pointed up but the range is .8581-.8619, with .8600 as the midpoint.
For me this suggests using .8600 as a barometer of GBP strength (relative term) or weakness.

On the upside, a firm break above .8620 would put the major,8744 level in play.

On the downside, a firm break of .8580 would suggest the high is in for now and cooling pressure on GBPUSD.

Likely see support on dips while above .8581.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HIUR CHART

Break off 1.2466 has so far been unable to reach 1.2422-40. The significance of these levels is below it would open the floodgates on the downside (major support is at 1.2298).

Otherwise, there are two pivotal levels

1.2500-05 on top

and

1.2450 (Power of 50 level) for intra-day trading bias (currently back above it)

As I noted, also loom at EURGBP as an indicator of GBP weakness or noit.

[GVI Forex 2]

BOE was dovish enough so no buy the rumor sell the fact reaction.

You can use EURGBP as one indicator of GBP weakness.

In GBPUSD 1.2450 now becomes the pivotal level for day traders.

[Mtl JP]

Learning To Read The Sign(s)
Keywords: greed, greed, greed, naivety, greed
–
Binance Pledged to Thwart Suspicious Trading—Until It Involved a Lamborghini-Loving High Roller
Former company insiders say the firing of an internal investigator showed that the crypto exchange neglected evidence of market manipulation.

[Mtl JP]

cry me a river
–
“Junior bankers crumble under 90-hour weeks prompting fresh pushback” – MarketWatch

Working conditions for analysts and associates are in the spotlight once again, and juniors are pushing back against brutal hours

[GVI Forex 2]

Scroll down to see the GBPUSD chart I posted last night.

Low so far 1.2470 low vs. 1.2466 support.

The market seems setup for a buy the rumor sell the fact reaction but much depends on how dovish the BOE comes across.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Trendline’s Supports and Resistances
Supports :
1.06650 , 1.04950 & 1.04700
Resistances :
1.08150 , 1.08250 , 1.10500 & 1.11500
Currently in a Buy Mode – as long as we are above 1.06650 we have to treat it as Bullish.

Moving Average’s Supports and Resistances:
Supports :
None
Resistances:
1.07300, 1.07450 & 1.07650
Currently in a Sell Mode – as long as bellow 1.07650 it is Bearish

Continue reading…

[GVI Forex 2]

Summary

BoE expected to keep Bank Rate at 5.25%

Investors watching for hints of a rate cut in June

ECB expected to move next month, Fed going more slowly

UK inflation heading for 2% target but wage growth strong

LONDON, May 9 (Reuters) – The Bank of England is likely to take another step towards its first interest rate cut in four years on Thursday as inflation falls, but will probably be cautious about signalling that a move is imminent.

Bank of England likely to move closer to first rate cut since 2020

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX 4 HOUR CHART – Why I look at USDX

Why am I looking at USDX if I don’t trade it?

I take a look at USDX as part of my daily routine. With EURUSD representing 57.6% of the index, it often acts as a proxy for this currency.

More than half the battle is to identify the side to trade and this index helps confirm (or not) what I see on a EURUSD chart.

Looking at this chart. USDX continues to recover from last week’s post-US jobs report fall.

It is trying to build momentum to the upside but still faces a key resistance at 106.00. It would likely need EURUSD to extend its retreat to challenge this level.

[Author]

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