THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak Tuesday on Capitol Hill in his semiannual monetary policy testimony. His assessment on disinflation, whether it is resuming, will be the central focus. His testimony will be followed on Thursday by US consumer prices where monthly rates are expected to remain cool but not the annual ex-food ex-energy core which is seen rising to 3.5 from 3.4 percent.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold policy steady on Wednesday as is the Bank of Korea on Thursday.
Chinese consumer prices on Wednesday are expected to be quiet and flat while Chinese merchandise trade, estimated for Friday, is expected to show a strong rise for exports and also a rise for imports. Monthly UK GDP on Thursday is expected to remain flat, while India’s consumer prices on Friday are expected to remain steady and high.
Econoday
LONDON, July 7 (Reuters) – France was on track for a hung parliament in Sunday’s election, with a leftist alliance unexpectedly taking the top spot ahead of the far right, in a major upset that was set to prevent Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) from running the government.
EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – OOPS!

EURUSD seemed setup for a gap to the upside but the surprise French vote saw a gap to the downside.
To fill the gap, 1.0838 needs to trade.
On the downside, 1.08 is the obvious pivotal level with support at 1.0794=99 chart support.
This is a tough one to call until the political dust settles so toi keep it simple:
Keeps a bid while 1.0799 holds, below it says that politics rules.
On the upside a move above 1.0850-52 would say politics doesn’t matter.
France Election 2024 Live: Left and centre leading far right, pollsters sa
LONDON, July 7 (Reuters) – France was on course for a hung parliament in Sunday’s election, with a leftist alliance unexpectedly taking the top spot ahead of the far right, in a major upset that was set to bar Marine Le Pen’s National Rally from running the government.
Summary
Polls showed the left was leading
Far-right leader Bardella conceded defeat
French voters turned out in large numbers
The counting has begun
Turnout at 5 p.m. was the highest afternoon level since 1981
Here’s our wrapup of the day so far
EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – Mind the gap!

One trigger for the EURUSD rally was that it bounced after filling last week’s opening gap.
Given the French elections and EURUSD closing around its high, there is a risk of another gap opening on the upside.
Scroll down for an update showing key levels on the upside.
NEW YORK, July 5 (Reuters) – A recalibration of how the U.S. presidential election plays out is causing bond investors to bet yields stay higher for longer as November approaches.
Bond market re-focus on US elections throws wrench into 2024 rally hopefully
Once the dust settles on the French election attention will shift to the U.S. with CPI and Powell testifying/ See the full preview
EYE ON YELLEN
and the UK
–
According to NYT
“Rachel Reeves, Britain’s First Female Chancellor, Turns to Janet Yellen for Inspiration”
Rachel Reeves, who will oversee Britain’s budget, is expected to pursue an agenda influenced by Janet Yellen’s more activist approach to job-creation and investment in the United States.
EURUSD DAILY CHART – 1.09-1.10?

Chart is clear. If 1.0852 is firmly broken and sustained, risk is for a run at targets in the 1.09-10 area.
On the downside, expect support on dips as long as it trades above 1.08.
Note French 2nd round vote is on Sunday and price action suggests a view (and relief) that the far right will not win an outright majority.
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