[Mtl JP]

Potential for some price twisting
coming up
–
10:00am:
JOLTS and
conf board consumer confidence

[GVI Forex 2]

It looks like JPY cross buying ahead of the BOJ is giving the UDSD support elsewhere.

By cross buying I mean buying JpY on its crosses (e.g. EURJPY selling).

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – MONIN AVERAGES

This chart summs it up:

XAUUSD trading within a band bounded by 100 (blue) and 200 (yellow) moving averages.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF 5 Min Chart – 15.01.2015.

This should make you think and get some perspective when there is an Important Data/News/Central Bank decision

Almost 2.000 pips in 10 minutes, with over 1.400 Pips GAP .

This kind of development will Kill not only your margin, but yours kids college fund, take your home and your panties….

So start thinking and learning NOW.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX DAILY CHART – EURUSD PROXY (57.6% of the index)

Using USDX as a EURUSD proxy, 104.76 equates to eurusd 1.0800-14 support.

Note, EURUSD appears it will break a 5 day pivot around 1.0850, which is a bearish sign and contrary to what one would expect ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorow.

Read Bobby’s eqrlier posts. He summed it up well.

[SF Monedge]

Most of my sentiments below are contra flow with orders outside of current market.

[SF Monedge]

Coming into the session I slightly prefer the sell side of Euro, the buy side more strongly in Sterling, the sell side of Yen against other pairs slightly, the buy side more strongly for Aussie, slightly prefer the buy side of Canadian vs other pairs.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

To the extent that worries about pricey tech stocks and rising AI capex spending were partly behind last week’s market shakeout, Microsoft’s quarterly update should prove a key moment later on Tuesday, just as the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting gets under way.

Morning Bid: Microsoft and job openings to hit pre-Fed vigil

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

US focus in the July 29 week will be narrowly fixed on two times: 14:00 ET on Wednesday when the FOMC releases its policy announcement and 8:30 ET on Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the July employment numbers. Markets are anticipating that the FOMC statement will set the stage for a rate cut in the near future, presumably the September 17-18 meeting. For payrolls, healthy moderate growth of 180,000 is the call.

The Bank of England will announce what is expected to be a rate cut on Thursday, while the Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday but announce its reduction schedule for bond purchases. National CPI’s in Europe begin on Tuesday and will followed by Eurozone harmonised inflation data on Wednesday.

GDP’s unfold on Tuesday with first estimates for the second quarter to open with France then Germany followed by Italy and finally the Eurozone. Marginal to modest growth is generally expected.

Japanese industrial production on Wednesday is expected to fall steeply reflecting new safety test issues in the auto industry. A sleeper in the week but a report that should never be overlooked because of its policy implications is the quarterly US employment cost index on Wednesday. A sharp fall in this index, however unlikely, could raise talk for a rate cut at that afternoon’s FOMC announcement.

 

Econoday

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Weekly

They have penetrated the Support at 1.08150, but no reaction whatsoever …

So to stop banging my head this is the realistic situation :

–          If they close this week above 1.08500 – we go Up

–          If they close this week below 1.08150 –we go Down

Simple as that.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD DAILY CHART – CONSOLIDATING AROUND .6550

 

Having ended 9 down days in a row, AUDUSD has spent the past 3 days consolidating around ,6550.

Watch  .6550 as this level will dictate whether ,6500 comes under attack or the down move is over.

Next up is Aussie CPI on Wednesday.

[Belgrade Bobby]

This Week

Aside the Summer Holidays that slowed down everything , this week’s data makes it even worse…

Drawing lines on Charts is kind of a waste of time and empty expectations.

Being exclusively a Technical Trader, this is Hell for me….

It is difficult for me to explain it fully, but those of you who are long in this know – way how market moves ( or not move for that matter) is just wrong….Bars on smaller time frames are way too small, so even when right you won’t make much…but if they come for your stop it can be doubled…just like that…

Market is very light and all eyes are now locked on the Data.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – WAITING FOR THE FOMC

 

Having paused above 1.08 yesterday EURUSD has bounced but would need to trade at 1.0850 to extend a 5-day pattern where this level has traded.

Whatever the case, logic says the dollar should have a limited upside once the focus shifts to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting but first has to get past the BOJ decision.

For day traders, little to go for unless either side of 1.08 or 1.0871 is taken out.

Otherwise, watch to see if 1.0850 can trade.

[GVI Forex 2]

WASHINGTON, July 29 (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at a two-day policy meeting this week but open the door to interest rate cuts as soon as September by acknowledging inflation has edged nearer to the U.S. central bank’s 2% target.

Fed likely to hold rates steady one last time as inflation fight finale unfolds

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD WEEKLY CHART – NEW 2024 HIGH

 

Having traded to a new 2024 high (1.38653, I went to a weekly chart to fimd

1.3896 – 2023 high

1.3977 = 2022 high

as the next key levels on the upside.

For day traders, 1.3850 will likely set its tone with support on deep dips as long as it trades above 1.38 but no stops left unless a new high is made..

Next key even is the US FOMC deision on Wednesday.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART – WAITING FOR THR BOJ

 

It will be a new ball game tomorrow when the BOJ announces its monetary policy decision.

In the meantime, the brief move above 155 overnight suggests this will be the focal point after the decision within a broad range of 150-152/158-160

The BOJ will likely be lurking in anY case

[Mtl JP]

Bingo !

US HOUSE BUDGET COMMITTEE

U.S. NATIONAL DEBT:
$35,001,687,141,663
JULY 29, 2024

more moRE MORE !!!

10-yr 4.171%

[michael Calif]

covering Shorts in Euro futures from July 18    :gtwo3

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nasdaq – NDX rise on prospect of Big Tech results, Fed decision

The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 rose in choppy, range-bound trading on Monday as investors looked forward to a raft of upcoming triggers such as Big Tech earnings, a Federal Reserve policy decision on interest-rate cuts and key labor data.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) saw its stock rise by 5.6% to $232.15 after Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating and maintained a $310 price target.

Tesla plans to make 2.77 million cars by 2025, focusing on cheaper models priced at $30,000. Despite higher revenue, its EPS fell short, dropping its stock to $219.80, an 11.52% yearly fall.

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC 4 HOUR CHART – 70K tested and then….

 

What can I say, as the chart shows BTC ws setup for a run above 70K and was quickly repelled.

To keep it simple, use 65k-70k as a range, only a break of the lower end would confirm the 70K failure

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nvidia – NVDA

Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) saw a 259% gain over 13 months, driven by bullish trading strategies focusing on technical and valuation metrics.

Nvidia’s stock soared 130% in 2024, fuelled by Al excitement, even as investors shifted from high-value stocks to small caps due to market responses to Tesla and Alphabet earnings.

Nvidia stock rose in premarket trading, gaining 0.79%, then 0.6% after a previous 0.7% increase, as investors awaited Al comments during tech earnings.

[SF Monedge]

I predict, unless there are illegal vote riggings or some other sudden “surprise” such as an unexpected war days before the election, that Trump will obliterate the leftists gunning for power.  I live in a very liberal area just north of San Francisco, which is highly liberal.

 

If you read the comment sections of the area media sites, they are overwhelmed with people calling for the “destruction” of the democrat party and they want Biden and his entire administration in prison and facing charges of Treason.  A complete 100% shift from years 4 ago.

[SF Monedge]

I have an increasingly hard time believing EurGbp trades agressively under 6410 near term.

[Mtl JP]

THIS is soooo …. brutal, barbaric

How DARE they !

EU diplomats ordered to cancel parties after budget crunch

The EU’s external action service, in effect the bloc’s foreign ministry, has been told to cut €43mn — almost 5 per cent of its planned budget — after breaching agreed spending limits, said five officials briefed on the demand. …

psst: suggest to put you depends if u r going to click the link

[SF Monedge]

Taking the sell side of Yen pairs coming up shortly.  I hope some of you guys bought defense stocks last week or so when I thought it looked good.  Lockheed blasted uphill highly robust about 48hrs later.  We are in very dangerous military waters at present.

[SF Monedge]

I would consider selling UsdSgd (Singapore) in the 3450/60 area if seen.

[SF Monedge]

I see reason to sell UsdChf if it roams about another 20 pips or so higher.

[SF Monedge]

Gold and Aussie are stacked on the buy side in calls, take the lows if you like the risk.

[SF Monedge]

See sell side interest in Peso at UsdMxn 18.6840 right here

[Author]

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