[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: Follow the yield

Markets ignoring negative headlines and following a dip in oil that has pulled yields down, weighing on the USD and helping to boost stocks.

EURUSD                                    US500                                        XTIUSD

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.143x
looking “toppish” i.e neutral/confused/ despite (re?)newed hawkish yak from ECB suits
as players are re-calculating odds of rate hike by yr-end

so bottom line bias slightly up w 1.1380 sup and res 1.1450/80

[Mtl JP]

hmm ..  yields “weighing on the USD”

odds would lean towards 100.5 ?

[Adam Global]

GOLD 💛 got me 📈 thought they will reject 4100.00 then drop but nope 🙅🏻‍♂️ went higher

[Adam Global]

Us100Cash 📈 bounced up when $29K hold up

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: NAS100 outperforms

NAS100 outperforming but needs to break 29852 and 30000 to negate downside risk and put bulls back in control.

US500 extended its pivot around 7500 to 7 days in a row and needs to break this pattern and establish 7500 as support to put bulls back in control.

US500                                                               NAS100

[GVI Forex 2]

Dip in US bond yields weighing on the USD (modestly so far)

2-year

10 year

[GVI Forex 2]

US PRE-MARKET MOVERS: AZN, COST, PEP, LEVI, CBRS, IBM, MSFT, ENVX, AZZ, FCEL, CRM, PSKY

ES +0.2% NQ +0.9% RTY +0.3%

• AZN -8.0%: Wainua failed to meet its target in Phase III trial
• COST -1.7%: Total SSS growth in June eased from May
• PEP -2.7%: Earnings weighed by consumer budgets tightening; expects high input cost inflation in H2 vs H1
• LEVI -4.0%: Q3 & FY26 outlook disappointed
• CBRS +5.3%: Announced a major expansion of its European AI infrastructure
• IBM -4.3%, MSFT -1.8%: SBUX is reportedly developing in-house tools with the help of AI that could replace some software applications it now buys from companies such as MSFT & IBM
• ENVX +12.2%: Appointed former Director of Product Operations at Apple, Michael Vyvoda, as COO
• AZZ +7.5%: EPS & rev. beat
• FCEL +10.7%: Announced a collaboration with Siemens to accelerate the deployment of fuel cell-based distributed power generation.
• CRM -4.7%: Downgraded at KeyBanc to ‘Sector Weight’ from ‘Overweight’
• PSKY -2.6%: Downgraded at Arete to ‘Sell’ from ‘Neutral’

v

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Little reaction to slight jobless claims (lower) beat

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Adam Global]

GBPUSD 📉 rejected 1.3400 for a minor retest…moving average or 1.33500 may hold GBPUSD up📈

[Adam Global]

GOLD 💛 found📈 support on 4055.00

Battling 📉 4100.00 as everyone is waiting for unemployment claims to see the next move

[Adam Global]

Oil 🛢 still battling $75/🛢 as 🇺🇸 strikes 💣 🇮🇷 & more retaliation by 🇮🇷 on 🇶🇦🧨 🇰🇼 🧨🇧🇭

[Adam Global]

AUDUSD was little changed around 0.6937 early on Thursday. While the pair has managed to stabilize the sell-off that started from a four-year high

[Mtl JP]

US 10-YR 4.585% Up +0.018 LAST | 7:06:29 AM EDT

–

potential oil price / political driver element: SPR drawdown

[GVI Forex 2]

Military exchanges between the U.S. and Iran intensified overnight as President Donald Trump seemed to double down on his view that Tehran was an unreliable negotiating partner, while also indicating that a full-scale war would not be restarting. Oil markets have so far taken the flareup in stride, with Brent crude staying under $80 per barrel despite yesterday’s surge to multi-week highs.

Global bonds remained weak in Asia trading, while stocks were mixed early on Thursday. A burst of enthusiasm for chip stocks in the U.S. on Wednesday helped lift Asian equities briefly before the rally lost momentum…full report on Reuters US Morning Bid

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR

Getting a reprieve after pause above 4000 but to break momentum and shift it the other way 4123 needs to be broken.

Otherwise, still hostage to the risk mood.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News – 9th July 2026

• US struck around 90 Iranian military targets. In return, the IRGC said it attacked two US bases in Bahrain and two in Kuwait.
• CNN reported that US President Trump is losing patience with the pace of negotiations, particularly on nuclear.
• Crude benchmarks were firmer overnight, but moved lower as the European morning progressed as markets reacted to Trump’s remarks that Iran wanted to make a deal. Brent Sep’26 now off lows, and now flat.
• European bourses are firmer, with US equity futures also following suit; NQ +0.6%.
  G10s are mostly firmer against the slightly lower USD; Kiwi outperforms.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/04), Existing Home Sales (Jun), ECB Minutes (Jun), Banxico Minutes (Jun), Speakers include Fed’s Williams, Logan, BoE’s Breeden, Supply from the US and Earnings from PepsiCo.

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

The dollar is trasding a touch lower but off earlier lows in cautious trading. What caught my eye is that US bond yields remain elevated despite a risk on tone ahead of the US opening.

GBP continues to benefit from firmer crosses as it trades above 1.34, EURUSD pause just below 1.1450 has cooled its upside while USDJPY remains above 162 but wary of BoJ intervention.

Oner currency to watch is USDCAD, which came into the day pivoing 1.42 for 12 days in a row and has yet to test it today. For momentum to build to the downside, 1.4149 would need to be firmly broken.

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: Risk Fights Back

Markets taking a wait-and-see approach in the hope that renewed atrtacks do not escalate has seen crude oil dip with positive ripple effects in other markets. Follow throuigh, however, follow through has so far been limited with EURUSD pausing just below 1.1450 and US500 printing 7500 for the 7th day in a row with a high at 7510 (on this CFD chart).

So another headline watching day where the reaction means more than the news itself

EURUSD                                        US500                                                 XTIUSD.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Stocks mixed and oil bid on escalating US/Iran tensions

SNAPSHOT: Equities mixed, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar down, Gold down

REAR VIEW: US-Iran tensions build amid renewed strikes between both sides; Trump thinks Iran ceasefire is over, believes dealing with Iran is a waste of time; Trump says might hit Iran tonight; Trump says will allow US negotiators to continue to talk if they want; Iran reportedly suspends talks on a final settlement with the US; Trump says cutting of all trade with Spain and all visits; Strong US 10yr note auction; Minutes repeat hawkish statement; RBNZ hikes rates as expected; AAPL announced plans to spend over $30B in a chip-supply deal with AVGO; China reportedly plans to allow some of their biggest AI companies to purchase a “small” number of NVDA H200 chi

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update

All eyes on the reaction to headlines out of the Gulf with stocks showing some resilience with bounce off the lows. US500 focus is on 7500 to see if a 6-day pivot around it can be extended or not. NAS100 move back above 29K giving it a reprieve and likely a bias settiNg level on Thursday as well.

US599 N                                                                 AS199

[GVI Forex 2]

FOMC minutes: A bi of a risk on reaction even though minutes were not dovish,

FOMC MINUTES: Participants generally saw upside risks to price stability as elevated, while downside risks to maximum employment goal had moderated a bit…read full report on

Newsquawk.com

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update

Reaction to Trump presser comments saw buyers step in at the lows despite more sabre rattling

EURUSD following GBPUSD with a lag as EURGBP falls

EURUSD                                   US500                                          XTIUSD

[Mtl JP]

US 10-YR 4.587% +0.058
–
13:00 bessent’s dept peddles off 39Bln of 10-Year paper
14:00 FOMC minutes

Cox suggested earlier that ‘Fed meeting minutes to show ‘family fight’ over rates. The squabble could drag on for a while”

for the moment players appear to have tamed their earlier enthusiastic bets for higher rates

[Mtl JP]

EUR/USD 1.14
–
bias prudently bearish
Res 1.1450-80
Sup: recent lows around 1.1380-1.1370

[Mtl JP]

Japan in Toilet

print more ?  are you kidding ?  or not ?

[GVI Forex 2]

Alert

President TRrump’s news conference at the NATO SUmmit is duer to begin shortly.

[GVI Forex 2]

Crude oil spikes to new highs for the day, waiting to see any ripple effects elsewhere

“Iran to close Strait of Hormuz, strike twice as many targets in response to any US attack”, Press TV reports citing a source; Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz under its own arrangements, as per the Islamabad MoU (Newsquawk)

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update

Markets shrugging off latest flurry of threats by Prez T as a wait-and-see approach sets in to see if there is a tit-for-tat or escalation of hostilties.

NAS100 trying to regain 29K but would need to regain 29181 to negate the last leg down or risk stays on the downside.

EURUSD                                           NAS100                              XTIUSD

.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR

Bearish pattern playing out with a 7426 target tested (low 7420).

Key level to watch is 7500, which extended its trade around it to 6 days in a row.

If This level doesn’t trade tomorrow it would be a negative sign but only a firm break of 7420 would build momentum to the downside.

[Author]

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