[michael Calif]

re-post:    TIME SHIFT:  time vibrations nearbby futures now Short USD, Long Euro, sooner than expected    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

Now we are seeing some risk off….

[Mtl JP]

[GVI Forex 2]

It feel like a slow drip higher for the US

Some key or pivotal level

USDCAD 1.3838-60

GBPUSD 1.30

USDJPY 150.32

EURUSD is back below 1.0850

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 YEAR TREASURY DAILY CHART (CFD)

Trading to lows (higher yield) not seen in over 2-1/2 month… one last low seen about 2 weeks agoi left on thsi chart

In the absence of news today higher yields are giving the USD some support.

[GVI Forex 2]

I have been searching for reasons why GOLD has been rising to record levels so I can get a clue how to react to any news. Here are the most commonly cited reasons

Economic uncertainty (not reflected in US stocks but China struggles)

Geopolitical (Ongoing Middle East tensions and waiting for Israel to retaliate v. Iran)

Central bank demand (this may be the strongest factor?)

No mention of upcoming US election but could be a contributing factor.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHartT

From Our Weekly FX Chart Outlook’

Short-Term Trend up but…

Market got its taste of the long forgotten 150+ level but failed to maintain it.

To put 150+ in the rear-view mirror, back below 148.82 would need to be broken.

To suggest this is more than a retracement of the broader 161.93-139.58, moves above the 100 and 200 daily mvas (blue and yellow lines) are needed.

[GVI Forex 2]

What is a yield curve? Note, the US yield curve iu
s positive.

Key Takeaways

Yield curves plot the interest rates of bonds of equal credit and different maturities.

Normal curves point to economic expansion.

Downward-sloping curves point to economic recession.

Yield curve rates are published on the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s website each trading day.

(Investopedia)

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Open

US futures mixed ahead of Fed speakers; dollar firmer and bonds pressured

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

(Click below to read the full report and listen to the guys doing the podcast)

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses are generally trading in negative territory, but the FTSE 100 remains afloat owning to gains in Energy/Mining names; US futures are mixed.

Dollar is firmer, JPY underperforms with USD/JPY attempting to test 150 to the upside.

Bonds are entirely in the red, Bunds were initially lifted by soft German producer prices, but ultimately succumbed to selling pressure.

Crude climbs higher attempting to recoup some of the prior week’s losses, XAU & base metals continue to advance.

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

A relatively quiet start to the week for world markets leaves Wall Street pondering the sustainability of the recent record highs as corporate earnings updates pour in, the S&P500 index nears 6,000 and the election looms.

The peculiar sight of a risk-loving rally in U.S. equity markets and corporate high yield debt alongside new records for the traditional safe haven of gold may speak something of the hedged outlook, with geopolitical and electoral risks coloring the booming domestic economy.

Morning Bid: Holding stock records, with a golden hedge

[GVI Forex 2]

There is a mini debate whether markets (stocks, bonds, fx) reflect a market leaning towards Trump (and the Trump Trade) or reflects the outperformance of the US economy.

With polls showing a tossup and the composition of Congress a factor in getting anything meaningful passed, I would argue for the latter but what do I know? I must say this is a rare time predicting is beyond my pay grade.

A GV member has been asking me

I have been asking you if / when politics will be trading theme —- is it starting?

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 4 HOUR CHART – WAITING FOR THE BOC

IN a week with a light economic calendar, the BoC deciion will be a key focus.

As posted in our Weekly FX Chart Outlook

Trend: Up but below major level (1.3946)

The question for the CAD is how much an expected 50bps BoC rate cut on Wednesday is discounted.

Look for aa bid on dips ahead of the BoC where 1.38 will dictate the tone afterwards.

To expose the major 1.3946 level, 1.3838-50 would need to be firmly broken.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART

Nothing goes up forever but XAUUSD is trying to do so.

If I had to pick a possible pause area, I would say 2750 or if not then 2800.

On the downside, expect support on dips while above 2700.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART -Day without news

RANGE SO FAR 1.0846 -1.08715

As posted in our Weekly FX Chart Outlook

Trend down

While 1.0850 sets the intra-day tone, any move to the upside that fails to break 1.09 should be treated as a retracement.

On the other side, as we noted, 1.08 is one of those options strike levels that would likely be defended (low was 1.0811)

Levels to watch: 1.0873 (yellow line – 200 day mva) and 1.0881 breakdown level..

[SF Monedge]

War affects currency flows.

As reported in Reuters today, 2 classified US intelligence reports were leaked detailing Israel’s plans with Iran.  The day after Biden said he knew of Israel’s plans and saw room for ceasefire.

A little bird had me feeling there would be a leak last night through the New York Times, the democrat party’s propaganda source.  Which is exactly what happened.

The goal of the Biden administration and democrats is to foul up Israel’s plans and maybe get lucky right before the US presidential election by being able to claim they stopped Israel.

From protecting itself.

Dear Jewish people.  There is not one democrat who is your friend.

This is going to put heavy weight on into any gallant thoughts over a risk on environment next week.  Therefore it will really take something to convince me and a lot of others that DX gets heavy buy flows that would sustain yet.

The US is not supporting a key, long time ally, over hopes of political gain while being an embarrassment.

[GVI Forex 2]

The upcoming week has a light economic calendar, especially from the US in a forex market that seems to need news to create volatility. Arguing for consolidation, at least to start the week, is a light economic calendar and that there are no key USD buy stops unless last week’s highs are taken out.

Let’s look at daily charts to see the broader picture.

Weekly FX Chart Outlook – October 21-25 (plus XAUUSD)

https://global-view.com/weekly-fx-chart-outlook-october-21-25/

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

Starting off Monday is Germany’s producer price index which is estimated to fall 0.25 percent month over month, after rising 0.2 percent in August.

Wednesday will have Canada’s monetary policy report and US existing home sales data release.

Bank of Canada is expected to cut its policy interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.75 percent. This follows a 25-basis point cut to 4.25 percent last month. US existing home sales are expected to rise at a 3.9 million annual rate in October after falling 2.5 percent to 3.860 million units in September. Also in US reports Wednesday, the release of the Beige Book covering the period between late August and mid-October will show the impacts from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, reports out of Atlanta, Richmond, and St. Louis. This could well pull the overall tone of the report down, and coming on the heels of a lackluster assessment of conditions in the prior Beige Book, it could cause some handwringing about the US economy.

In Thursday’s reports, South Korean GDP is expected to rise 2.1 percent year over year, and the PMI composite flash for the UK is expected to expand in both composite, manufacturing, and services in its flash release.

Econoday

[michael Calif]

TIME SHIFT:    time vibrations nearby futures now Short USD, Long Euro; sooner than expected.    :gtwo3

[Mtl JP]

Just WHERE is yellen ?
worried about Howard Lutnick and trumps potential tariffs
–
BRICS to discuss new global financial system – Reuters
At next week’s BRICS summit Moscow plans to unveil new payments platform for international trade without need for dollar.

Putin says BRICS, not the West, will drive global economic …
(Reuters) The BRICS group will generate most of the global economic growth in the coming years thanks to its size and relatively fast growth compared …

At BRICS summit, Russia to push to end dollar dominance
(Reuters) Russia is seeking to convince BRICS countries to build an alternative platform for international payments that would be immune to Western …

Russia calls on BRICS partners to create alternative to IMF
(Reuters) Oct 10, 2024 — Russia, which chairs the BRICS group this year, has called on its partners to create an alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF)

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC WEEKLY CHART

CRYPTOS ARE THE ONLY INSTRUMENT THAT TRADES 24/7, 7DAYS A WEEK.

Weekly chart shows the obstacles ahead of the record 73780 high, starting with 70000.

To keep a bid on dips 66500 needs to hold.

[Mtl JP]

some week-end comical relief ?
–
Mortgage rates jump, slamming homebuyers despite Fed’s outsize interest rate cuts

UK headhunter ‘scams Wall Streeters with fictional jobs, fake IDs’ to get private info: report
New York Post 10/19/24

probably depends of your sence for comedy

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk.com Week Ahead: 21st-25th October Highlights include PBoC LPR, BoC, EZ & UK PMI

[SF Monedge]

Patience count with currencies.  This is just a counter strike.  You should consider long USD.  The bigger picture is what counts.

[GVI Forex 2]

It is worth revisiting this article

If I told you that there was a large order in the market to buy EUR and sell GBP would you be looking to sell EURUSD and buy GBPUSD, do the opposite or step aside as the order gets executed?

How You Can Use Currency Crosses to Trade Spot Forex

[GVI Forex 2]

Friday market

Stocks up
Gold another record
Dollar down but let’s call it consolidation

[GVI Forex 2]

Look at GBPJPY… as well as EURGBP

Like being a forex detective identifying flows driving the market

[SF Monedge]

With respect to Yen, as all other currencies, it is important to watch the crosses.  It is quite a roadmap.  Watching the crosses tells you where the flows are going.

[GVI Forex 2]

And now the saga continues

EURGBP firms… .8313 => .8326

GBPUSD slips… 1.3065 => 1.3044

EURUSD back up to 1.0860 after dip did not reach 1.0850

Hint: When 2 currencies move in opposite directions it is a clue there is a real money flow in a cross.

[SF Monedge]

Should see the lower figure in Sterling soon.

[GVI Forex 2]

So let’s summarize the price action… I know this is just one flow but has impacted both spot pairs

EURGBP extended its bounce from .8295 to .8323

EURUSD firmed and GBPUSD followed with a lag

EURGBP stalled below .8325 (thanks to The Amazing Trader for that level) and then slipped back

GBPUSD firmed as the cross slipped

EURUSD barely moved

EURGBP did not go far on the downside, GBPUSD lost its cross bid, EURUSD slipped back with a lag

Sounds like a puzzle… this is using crosses to trade Spot101

Contact me [email protected] if you want a further explanation

[Author]

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