[GVI Forex 2]

Following the choice of a new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, I have added an addendum to this timely article.

Why the Choice of the US Treasury Secretary is Important for Trading.

[SF Monedge]

I would just like to comment regarding the price behavior of Thursday and Friday of this week.

A lot of people were waiting to pounce on a perceived bottom in Euro, Sterling, Swiss, and EurJpy at what amounted to mass positioning at a 6 month low being run through by a very aggressive sword.

Even a lot of professionals were hit hard there when markets fired through it like an out of control train.

So the question many ask is .. well then what use are pivots and if you only go with momentum or a combination you still don’t know positively what the outcome will be so what do I do?

1.      Don’t become top and bottom happy.

2.      Don’t think momentum is the only way to go.

3.      Never convince yourself you are perfect if you go on a long win streak.

 

Answer: Pick those spots but be fleet of foot to adjust when necessary even when it means taking a small loss and immediately going with the reverse of what you thought would transpire.

I have been at this for a long time and have dealt with a lot  of CTA’s on a personal level.  I was one, albeit small.

If you wish to converse I am very receptive and helpful and can be reached through Jay with Global View by email.

[GVI Forex 2]

There is a light economic calendar in the coming week but it pays to look ahead after the way the EURUSD reacted to the weaker PMIs on Friday

NewsquawkWeek Ahead:Highlights 25 th-29nd November 2024

 

[GVI Forex 2]

So US tariffs are a done deal… what size, shape and on what countries/products are the unknown.

Will Trump & Co look to renegotiate USMCA or use the threat to tighten the border?

The United States, Mexico, and Canada updated NAFTA to create the new USMCA.

[GVI Forex 2]

President elect Trump nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary

Mr. Bessent, the founder of the investment firm Key Square Capital Management, has emerged as a central economic adviser… Unlike many on Wall Street, Mr. Bessent, 62, has also defended the use of tariffs, which are Mr. Trump’s favorite economic tool….NYT

[Belgrade Bobby]

NIO Inc.

Little Nio showing some teeth !

Now it has to take out first 5.00 and then 5.50 .

Once above, sky is the limit 😀

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin

High so far 99.804,98 – few bucks short of 100K 😀

So what next ??

Technically speaking , it has more room to go – that upper trend line is at 108.285 right now.

Experience wise : we should see another 2-3 days of blow of rally…

Trading wise – it is about time to cash in on any further rally.

[SF Monedge]

Very simply Yen is in a buy cycle and UsdJpy is not.  I would love to see futures dip again to start next week for another solid entry in spot.  EurJpy is not moving with UsdJpy well and so for that one remains a good sell.  Maybe long term.  You really do benefit from at least paying attention to fundamentals.

[SF Monedge]

Yen options are mixed today all the way out to March.  Nearby is more on the sell side.

[GVI Forex 2]

BTCUSD came within 500 of 100K…. Seems just a matter of time?

3 out of 4 parts of the Trump Trade today

Firmer dollar
Firmer stocks
BTCUSD pushing closer to 100K
Bonds not joining in today

[SF Monedge]

Yen futures are sideways.

[SF Monedge]

Interestingly there was a span of 12 minutes where there was near zero change in the volume of advancing vs declining shares in the Dow before the turn of the hour and one would not think so on a Friday such as this.

[GVI Forex 2]

Best hope for EURUSD is a slight reprieve as next week is a big holiday one for the US that will make it a 4-5 day holiday for most. So not usually one to add on risk.

Otherwise, talk will likely buid for parity unless 1.0446=1.0500+ is regained.

[SF Monedge]

Moving forward in reverse I have been selling every uphill break in EurJpy all morning and overnight and I think the odds are improving the next one, if there is one, may yield greater returns than 15 pts each.  Maybe in around a half hour.

[GVI Forex 2]

CME Fedwatch

Odds on a 25 bps Dec rate cut stands 55/45.

If Fed does not cut, it would probably piss off President-elect Trump and his pro growth agenda.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD WEEKLY CHART -8 down weeks in a row

EURGBP at .8310 says GBPUSD is being pulled along for the ride by the falling EURUSD.

It has been 8 down weeks in a row so until/unless this pattern changes, it will stay in a sell mode but dependent on EURUSD for direction.

Key focal point is 1.25, solidly below it would be needed to put 1.2444 and the 1.2298 2024 low in play.

1.0220/1.2298 = .,8310

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 15 MINUTE CHART – FOLLOW UP TO PRIOR POST

NO CHANGE, MARKET IN SELL MOIDE UNLESS 1.0446+ IS RENEWED

ALSO, CHF REMAINS WEAKEST,

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1.0537 resistrance proving tough

[GVI Forex 2]

EURCHF 30 MINUTE CHART

Conspiracy theory says some central bank was in to stem/slow/smooth the EUR freefall.. ECB? SNB (IN eurchf)?

 

[GVI Forex 2]

These comments have seen the CHF weaken, now the wordt performer vs the USD on the day. EURUSD may be getting some support from EURCHF.

Source. Newsquawk.com

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Once 1.04250 lost ( yesterday it was on 1.04350) orderly Downtrend becomes more difficult to predict.

We have now 1.04250 as a possible Resistance that can serve as a pivotal as well.

Resistances : 1.04250 , 1.04600 & 1.04950

Supports : 1.03350 , 1.02250 & 1.01950

[GVI Forex 2]

US-German 2 year bond spread is at the highest since 2022… a weight on the EURUSD

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Darkening skies over Europe’s economy, trade and politics sent the euro plummeting to its lowest in two years – just 3% from dollar parity – as post-election U.S. crypto optimism sees Bitcoin flirt with $100,000 for the first time.

Morning Bid: Euro/dollar stares at parity, Bitcoin eyes $100k

[GVI Forex 2]

Treat any move to the EURUSD upside as a retracement unless 1.0446+ is renewed.

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN

Dismal EZ PMIs hit risk sentiment, with Bonds bid and EUR at lows

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

Equities began the session on a firmer footing but now reside in negative territory after dismal EZ PMI metrics.

USD firmer and ultimately benefiting from poor EZ PMIs which forced EUR/USD briefly onto a 1.03 handle. Sterlinghit on its own data and Retail Sales beforehand.

Bonds soar in reaction to dire EZ PMIs which have boosted the odds of a 50bps ECB cut.

Crude is slightly firmer, XAU bid and base metals hit by sentiment.

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD FIBOS 1.0498 – 1.0332 ,,, NOTE 61.8%…HIGH 1.0437… LAST 1.0418

See our Fibonacci Calculator

[GVI Forex 2]

I use my platform like a heat map,,, GBP and EUR leading USD buying while USDJPY is down slightly so JPY getting the safe haven flows.

[GVI Forex 2]

Curremcies rarely move in a straight line so some backing and filling is ,ore typical than not.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Safe haven bid

Someone is taking the threat of Ukraine-Russia escalation seriously and GOLD had been a beneficiary.,

Resistance 2704-10

Support  2665-75

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD MONTLY CHART = BLACK HOLE

I posted yesterday that the downside and 1.0446 were at risk as ;ong as EURUSD trades below 1.05

Well the intra-day high was 1.0498, then 1.0446 was broken but it was hard to call what came next, a plunge into a black hole to a 1.0332 low.

Looking at a monthly chart you can see why 1.0446 was so important and why the black hole creates a void until .9535

This means

No obvious support so use the most recent low. The deck is clear of sell stops until ther 1.0332 low.

Key level on top is 1.0446, trades offered while below it but only 1.05+ would negate the risk to ???

 

 

[Author]

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