[GVI Forex 2]

USD catching A BID…FOCUS OF US data out today is Conference Board Consumer Confidence, expectrd to show a rise

See our Economic Data Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

While not as important as 1.05, EURUSD has traded on both sides of 1.04 on each of the past 4 days.

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN

European equities mostly lower while US futures gain, USD firmer ahead of data

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses are mostly lower, US futures higher with modest outperformance in the NQ.

Dollar is firmer and holding around 108.00, GBP little changed after UK shows no growth in Q3.

Bunds & Gilts pressured in thin trade, USTs flat into data.

Gas heats up on updates out of Qatar and Russia; Crude/XAU flat.

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 1 HOUR –   2600 or 2640?

Key resistance 2640…upside capped while below it and dependent on 2617 and the trendline holding or risk a return to 2600

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – THAT TIM,E OF YEAR

Technical analysis works because others follow the same indicators, patterns, levels, etc. When no one is playing the game, such as now ahead of Xmas, you can’t count on technical to  follow through.

With that said, what caught my eye is EURUSD’s pause below 1.0450, which keeps thoughts of 1.05 at bay and the downside more at risk.

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

Starting off the week on Monday is Canada’s monthly GDP. After a muted 1.4 percent year on year rise in October, forecasters expect November to go up a bit more at 1.8 percent on year.

US consumer confidence is forecast to show another increase in December, from 111.7 to 113.0.

On Tuesday, US new home sales are seen recovering to a 664,000 annual rate in November after plunging to 610,000 in October from a strong 738,000 in September. Weather depressed sales in October. That’s not seen as a factor in November but rising mortgage rates are.

Thursday, US job claims are seen rising to 223,000 this week, not far off the four-week moving average of 225,500 after an unexpected drop of 22,000 to 220,000 last week.

On Friday, Japanese payrolls are expected to post their 28th straight rise on year in November amid widespread labor shortages. Japan’s unemployment rate is forecast at 2.5 percent after ticking up to 2.5 percent in October and improving to an eight-month low of 2.4 percent in September from 2.5 percent in August. The government continues to describe employment conditions as “showing signs of improvement” in its latest monthly economic report.

Meanwhile, Japan’s industrial production is forecast to post its first drop in three months in November, down 3.5 percent on the month.

Econoday

[Idris Sagamu]

THANKS jey
i sincerely appreciate the lesson video about the [FADE]
thanks alot

[GVI Forex 2]

Those trading the past few days should have noticed a series of one way moves

This suggests an end-of-year holiday market dominated by real money flows driven by position adjustments/book squaring rather than fresh positioning that are harder to absorb as participation tends to fall with each passing day… READ HOW, CLICK BELOW.

How to Trade in a Holiday Market

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Trading Cheat Sheets

Candlesticks: For those of you that are familiar with the use of Candlesticks , here is something that might make you smile :

[Belgrade Bobby]

Trading Cheat Sheets

Click HERE

[GVI Forex 2]

It is no coincidence when a pattern repeats itself twice in a month with 2 different currencies.
]
The Magic Levels Trading Pattern Strikes Again

[GVI Forex 2]

House approves spending bill, Senate needs to confirm with just hours to act before shutdown deadline

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 DAILY CHART –Watch the trendline

As I noted yesterday, NAS100 had not broken its uptrend and this remains the case as long as it holds its daily trendline.

So watch the trendline as it checks the downside as long as it stays intact.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – Key levels

For me the only levels that matter are 5800 & 6000.

Having held 5800, US500 needs to regain 6000 to make this a short-lived correction.

[Anonymous]

EURUSD
https://www.ft.com/content/d91d35fc-93ab-4963-8587-7a00fe5c63b4

Europe leads the way Mario Draghi might bemoan Europe’s woeful securitisation markets, but SRTs is one area where the old continent has clearly led the way (yes, despite the “Wall Street” headline). In fact, the concept of such deals was enshrined in the EU’s regulatory framework through its implementation of the Basel II banking rule book in 2006, and in 2014 the European Banking Authority laid out detailed guidelines for them. As the EBA said at the time:

[GVI Forex 2]

If it wasn’t for the central bank surprises, the position squaring you are seeing today is typical of what typically goes on in the pre-XMAS week… as I indicated in

Trader Alert This is Not a Normal Trading Week

 

[michael Calif]

repost.  Euro Low.  current Nov-Dec low remains polar opposite to the July ’23 high; will this send Euro from 1.03-1.04 to 1.12 ….

[SF Monedge]

Very high odds Sterling tanks from 2600 in my view.

[GVI Forex 2]

As I noted today would likely be driven by thin liquidity, book squaring and position adjustments ahead of the holiday week. GBP and JPY have been beneficiaries, EUR, stocks and GOLD as well.

[Anonymous]

Is there a reason for the Stock Markets to print New historical highs?

Technically not. There is just one, that is Institutions start to pump another round of impressive leverage. Which but institutional players better don’t do now as It might be needed in case of extreme crises. They are already overly leveraged and full.

Hence here we are dealing with possibly complex Institutional Strategies redefining themselves as the new trading environment of the next months. It’s new Gamma walls and Collars and a totally new risk profiles in early definition, something we will be capable to start to see more clearly possibly around the beginning/end of January 2025.

Beside that am starting to notice algorithms are going against each other, loosing meaning – usability.
Purpose exhaustion of technological advantages of once.

Hence for the time being I would not chase markets.

Will watch closings later on, better. After the Witches go away.

Take Care

[GVI Forex 2]

Now it comes down to liquidty and end of week book squaring/position adjustments…. for EURUSD 1.04 is acting as a pivotal level… same for USDJPY 156.50 and GBPUSD 1.2550

Stocks catching a bid, note US500 bounce foff 5800.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Daily

This is what I wrote on 12.12.2024. :

Pattern – Bullish

If we get over 152.850 -we might see a run over 154.000 tomorrow

Now do not get me wrong – I don’t want to show off or gloat !

I want to prove the point and share some insights as how I trade…

Continue reading….

[Anonymous]

War often leads to inflation

The fact that war and inflation often go hand in hand has been known for a very long time. Back in 500 BC Sun Tzu, Chinese general and author of a book on the art of war, observed:

“Where the army is, prices are high; when prices rise the wealth of the people is exhausted.”

[Anonymous]

Monetary policy and inflation in times
of war – BIS Paper 2022

https://www.bis.org/review/r220519f.pdf

 

[GVI Forex 2]

And in the US Trump wants to abolish the debt ceiling limit… at some point chickens will come home to roost but not until the bond vigilantes find their Mojo….

Meanwhile EURGBP .8278 … EURGBP 1.0387

[Anonymous]

France

3.300 billion: public debt reaches Its new peak

French public debt now stands at 113.7% of GDP at the end of September. In the third quarter, it increased by more than EUR 71 billion.

 

[SF Monedge]

DX 108 has not been seriously compromised yet.  I am changing my view from positive Sterling to the sell side very short term.  Bear in mind I am fleet of foot and have zero problem changing my stride.

My view on stocks looking out  is no real damage has been done and we are going to see a whopper of a bull run in coming months.  Commentary from another site supporting my view so far:

———

Equity funds saw their largest weekly inflow on record of $68.7 billion, while cash holdings and bond funds experienced significant outflows, according to a Bank of America report, citing EPFR Global data.

US stock funds led the surge with $82.2 billion in inflows for the week ending December 18, amid a bullish sentiment around domestic equities. Concurrently, $63.8 billion exited money market funds, and $6 billion left bond funds, while crypto attracted $3.1 billion.

US equities are on course for a record inflow in 2024, however, BofA flags “abnormally large daily inflows across all S&P 500 funds” on Wednesday, potentially due to the upcoming quarterly re-balance on Dec. 23.

Meanwhile, high-yield bonds posted their largest outflow since February 2023 at $3.7 billion, and municipal bonds saw their steepest outflows in nearly a year at $1.4 billion.

[GVI Forex 2]

Do the math

eurusd 1.0492

gbpusd 1.2547

eurgbp .8282

See now if .8280 holds

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 1 HOUR CHART – Why it pays to pay attention to this cross

Double top at .8313… GBPUSD catches a bid as EURGBP retreats… EURUSD follows with A LAG

[GVI Forex 2]

News algos running a thin market… EURUSD high paused below 1.0420-25 resistance while GBPUSD leading as EURGBP retreats from .83+. causing the EURUSD lag

1.05 is pivotal in EURUSD

Next data Univ of Mich consumer sentiment

[Author]

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