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Many have seen me say when there is a geopolitical event or crisis, markets tend to price in the worst-case outcome and reassess later. The Trump tariff soap opera feels like a combination of the two (geopolitical event/crisis)..
After President Trump took office markets started to price in the worst-case impact of tariffs (e.g. inflation/higher bond yields/trade war, etc).
EURUSD, for example, set its low at 1.01777 on January 13 and one month later it has had an erratic recovery that has 1.05 on its radar, helped by hope for an end to the Ukraine war.
My point is if you take a step back after the frenetic headline driven whipsaw trading seen each day this week, there is some logic to the price action. The worst-case outcome does not appear will materialize
As you can see in forex, equities and bonds, markets have adjusted accordingly to reality. At a minimum, a two-way risk has been restored to what looked like might become a one-way street.
ETHUSD – Ethereum
This coin behaved perfectly technical so far – after very sharp drop of almost 50% it bounced strongly of the long term support line .
Pattern still suggests more downward pressure and tests of the supports, but as long as 2.190 holds on there is a good probability of renewed Up trend.
I would like to warn you all that time wise it might take another month, unless some news/data sparks immediate interest.
DAX – GER 30
DAX Surges to New High
Nice move away from support at 22.000 and making it very clear now where it tends to go.First target in 23.000 area, next 24K
Market sentiment remained upbeat amid strong corporate earnings and optimism over a potential end to the war in Ukraine, though caution persisted over US trade policy.
Robinhood Markets Inc. – HOOD
Fundamentals at it’s best
Robinhood Stock Jumps as Earnings Blow Past Forecasts
Robinhood Markets Up Over 13%, on Track for Highest Close Since August 2021
Robinhood Markets, Inc. Class A (HOOD) is currently at $63.48, up $7.58 or 13.55%·        Would be highest close since Aug. 4, 2021, when it closed at $70.39
·        On pace for largest percent increase since Nov. 6, 2024, when it rose 19.63%
·        Currently up four of the past five days
·        Currently up two consecutive days; up 19.02% over this period
·        Best two day stretch since the two days ending Nov. 6, 2024, when it rose 22.78%
·        Up 22.2% month-to-date
·        Up 70.38% year-to-date
EURUSD spooked by VAT comment but has since bounced back. Here are some highlights
Source: Newsquawk.com
EURUSD 4h Update
Was it Trump or that nasty Resistance at 1.04450 – you decide….
But 1.03650 wasn’t even touched….so what next ?
Close of this bar above 1.04150 would be pretty Bullish short term.
Any close below 1.03800 will target 1.03400 support .
There are 3h left for it, so sit back and enjoy
EURUSD 4h
What it means that EURUSD was rejected at 1.04400
I have mentioned last night 1.04450 as an important level that separates EUR from surging higher ( always take few pips up or down in consideration as I am trying to give you an insight way earlier , so levels are moving slightly with every passed hour )
We have now following supports:
1.03650 & 1.03400
If later one is lost, road would be open to 1.02100
Resistances are at: 1.04400 & 1.04700
The angle of this Support line below is one that usually comes during corrections and not Overall Direction – so this might be just a correction prior to continuation of the downtrend.
Headlines are starting early… Kudos to Newsquawk for reporting this ahead of newswires
Source: Newsquawk.com
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