[Mtl JP]

With election over …

EURO s back to 1.0465-ish after gaming initial political enthusiasm to 1.0528ish

and now that post-election things are sobering players are likely to focus on the attempt by trudeau in europe trying to collude with the german against trump’s tariffs on autos: is a canadian/german collusion going to tame down the belligerence OR is it going to evolve into bonafide trade war between the US vs Canado/German cabal.

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP

Dollar close to unchanged after post-German election trading.

Focus on the EU and EURUSD after the German election results were about as expected.

Initial positive reaction was partly driven by hope a new government would remove the debt brake and more spending would boost the Econ. Perhaps on second thought is the reality of trying to put together and then govern with a three party coalition from opposite sides of the political spectrum.

EURUSD is back to square one after failing to hold 1.05+

Modest bounce in USDJPY but still below 150

European and US stocks up

Gold up modestly

Light data day

[Adam Global]

Gold has been hitting all time high

3000.00 is Tp for many

That’s my TP too

Now it’s $330

Aiming for $1000

[Adam Global]

Eur is still battling the 1.05000 quarter point

Some are buying

Some are selling

[Adam Global]

Ive been posting signals inhere & majority hit Tp

Even GBP Tp hit 61.8

Now dropping

[Adam Global]

Japan trying to pick up & stay on 150.000

Will it resist or back up to 155.0000

[Adam Global]

With election over

Germany-40 index is trying to pick up

my trendline still holding

[Topnine]

XAU/USD (GOLD) was at an all high price of 2955 as at lastweek Friday. From there it went bearish to the price at 2918 area. It has slowly climbed back and it is now at 2947 area. I see it getting to resistance point at 2955 and further breaking above it to 2980 area.

The Metal Gold is a bullish one. It has been steadily on the climb since 1996 and it is not yet tired of climbing. Let’s Trade carefully with tight Stoploss/Takeprofits. Do not risk more than 2-5% of your Capital. A word is enough for the wise.

Thanks,
TOPNINE.

[GVI Forex 2]

JP good point about the gap.

German vote was about as expected

FDP got shut out so one less candidate for a coalition govt

As for EURUSD, keeps a bid if it can stay above 1.0450

[Mtl JP]

GVI 10:04 / you should look at the boatloads of houses for sale in washington …

and also take a look at canadian’s sentiment about the cad$ being in and potentially heading deeper in the toilet about the effect on their not just current but also future financial well-being.

to the fine tune “A Change Would Do You Good” (Sherryl Crow)

[Mtl JP]

GAP – a small uP GAP in eurdlr

too tiny , for me , to get excited for now

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

Between the drop in the February NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index by 5 points to 42 and the 4.9 percent fall in January existing home sales to 4.08 million units, there are emerging signs of weakening in the housing market. Despite moderation in home prices, builders and buyers are reacting to uncertain economic conditions with increased caution. Builders aren’t as optimistic about the outlook despite the prospect of loosened regulation. They are facing renewed upward price pressures on materials and labor, and potentially shortages of needed inputs. Consumers are worried about decreasing purchasing power with an uptick in inflation and their job security. And finally, there is little chance of meaningfully lower mortgage rates in the near future with the FOMC set to maintain restrictive monetary policy for the time being.

Econoday

[Mtl JP]

another joke. no, actually two jokes:
–
RBC among four banks to settle U.K. bonds collusion case for US$127 million
Traders unlawfully shared details on pricing and trading between 2009 and 2013, says U.K. markets authority

Traders at Citigroup Inc., HSBC Holdings PLC, Morgan Stanley and Royal Bank of Canada unlawfully shared details on pricing and trading in chatrooms between 2009 and 2013, the Competition and Markets Authority(CMA) said on Friday. Deutsche Bank AG, was exempted from the penalty as it was the first to self report its involvement. … – financialpost

[Mtl JP]

POOF! … the end
“Zelenskyy ‘willing to step down’ in return for Ukraine’s NATO accession
The Ukrainian president said that he is focused on Ukraine’s security today and called for further guarantees from Europe and the US.” – euronews

could not step down fast enough. but nooooo he still tries to set conditions

[Belgrade Bobby]

German elections – not all votes have been counted

 

[Anonymous]

EURUSD:- fwiw… My target on this pair is still 1.1036.

[Anonymous]

fwiw… German unemployment hovering around 6% and it’s been undergoing a recession for the past 2 years.

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Supports: 1.26250, 1.25500 & 1.25350

Resistances: 1.26800, 1.27250 & 1.27500

Pattern calls for another leg Up – tomorrow.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Getting ready for trading tomorrow

Resistances: 1.04700, 1.04850 & 1.05050

Supports: 1.04500, 1.04050 & 1.03750

Lots depends on the open tonight – Gap or no Gap

Probability is to the Upper side.

[Mtl JP]

London ST 12:03 “clearly important … shift”
–
outside of Rheinmetall being up some 30% over last month or so, what other meaty or juicy profit opportunities do you see coming up ?
tia

[GVI Forex 2]

The German election has not been much of a factor but with the result coming later today, it pays to take a closer look.

Do the German Elections Matter?

[GVI Forex 2]

German election

…First projections will come in once the polls close at 6 p.m. Sunday in Germany (noon E.S.T. in the United States). Because they are based on extensive exit polling, those numbers tend to be very accurate. During the last election, the exit polls were within 1 percent of the final vote that was posted hours later, once all ballots were counted.

But this year, exit polling could be less predictive. An unusual number of voters have told pollsters they had not yet made up their minds and an increasing number of voters use mail-in ballots and so they do not figure in exit polls…. (NYT)

[ST London]

As of February 23, 2025, Germans have begun voting in a national election anticipated to shift power to the conservative CDU/CSU bloc under Friedrich Merz. Pre-election polls suggest the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is poised to achieve its best results to date. However, the CDU/CSU is unlikely to secure an outright majority, leading to potential coalition negotiations in a fragmented political environment. The election follows the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government and reflects public concerns over living standards and immigration. Exit polls are expected shortly after polls close at 6:00 PM local time (12:00 PM EST). From the internet

[ST London]

German elections clearly important as likely a major shift will occur

Ukraine no one cares they are dead and finished one way or another

Only the stupid Brit’s care but then Stamar is now hated domestically so he is a one time pm

And may not be able to push thru anything internationally. There is a rising swell of uk first similar to the US

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Highlights Week Ahead: 24-28th February 2025

Highlights include US PCE, NVDA earnings, German election, China NPC, PBoC MLF, ECB Minutes, Australian and Tokyo CPI

[SF Monedge]

Rafe I agree with all you said.  Thank you for educating.

[Anonymous]

haaha!! non-events move markets here meaning “cast a shadow over the likelihood of further rate cuts” …. They have more effects on Indian markets than they do on mainland markets…just a “shadow over” is enough to crash stocks… When anything goes wrong in India they blame the US president but not the local politicians… That’s pretty darn stupid…

Tariff woes extend small cap selloff as over 400 stocks fall up to 53% this week

Over 400 smallcap stocks saw negative returns during the week, with 23 experiencing double-digit losses. Suratwala Business Group was the biggest loser at -53%, followed by Best Agrolife (-31%), Dee Development Engineers (-27%), and PTC Industries (-21%). Conversely, 52 stocks, including KDDL, Sandur Manganese, Pennar Industries, Taj GVK Hotels, IKIO Lighting, and Benares Hotels, yielded returns between 10-40%.

Adding to the market’s woes during the week was the hawkish stance from the FOMC minutes, which cast a shadow over the likelihood of further rate cuts, complicating the economic outlook.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/tariff-woes-extend-smallcap-selloff-as-over-400-stocks-fall-up-to-53-this-week/articleshow/118469783.cms

[Anonymous]

Holding 81000 crores in losses? I would get together with the other big investors and sue the regulators and the media in the courts for unlimited amounts of money and seize their assets to recover losses they got the gall to have caused. because on top of that they are writing articles to mock the large investors and rub salt into their wounds.

[Anonymous]

The managements of those listed companies including the middle managers, supervisors and even employees and even shareholders maybe subscribed to this same and other newspapers, remembering of reading how the media had spread mass hysteria to pump up stock prices then and then destroyed the same stock prices now… how many subscriptions is that. Media blames the game on geopolitical tensions now which were stronger then in the pandemic than they are now… When everything goes wrong then prostitutes blame the president of another country but not leaders in their own country or even themselves much less. Is that how media’s whoredom is working?

Smallcap rout: Over 900 stocks fall up to 41% this week. Natco, Senco among top laggards.

Out of the 938 stocks in the BSE Smallcap index analysed by ETMarkets, 909 stocks ended the week in the red with the highest fall of 41% witnessed in NGL Fine-Chem.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/smallcap-rout-over-900-stocks-fall-up-to-41-this-week-natco-senco-among-top-laggards/articleshow/118269236.cms?

[ST London]

EurJpy

Trend week down,

Anticipate spill over selling early next week
that once it breaks x (to be determined)

– btw for those that still want to buy the dips as they have all this past week I say
beware because we could get a decent quick run to 146ish and later to 135 and 120.

I am no longer targetting the 128-132 level

BTW

note that the almost exact same levels are cropping up for UsdJpy

which if I am right means EurUsd has no place to run to either up nor down.

– We shall see

 

 

[Author]

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