[GVI Forex 2]

Higher core PCE… no reaction

[Belgrade Bobby]

And Explanation about Retest – Daily Chart and typical example

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

1.08200 proved to be a strong Resistance yesterday.

Hence: Close tonight below 1.08000 ( preferably below 1.08900) would be Bearish for tomorrow.

EURUSD Opened just below 1.08000

And that was a typical “Retest” and not re test – English and literature 101 has no place in Trading.

Resistances: 1.07800, 1.08000 & 1.08200

Supports: 1.07600, 1.07450 & 1.07300

4H chart

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

US futures approach PCE in the red following the overnight tone and further risk aversion from earthquakes in Myanmar; Carney to speak with Trump today

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 6 things you need to know for today’s market.

6 Things You Need to Know

European bourses and US futures approach PCE in the red following the overnight tone and further risk aversion from earthquakes in Myanmar

Canadian PM to speak with Trump today; EU has mentioned Apple, Meta and PayPal as part of any potential tariff response

DXY attempts to claw back Thursday’s pressure and is firmer vs peers ex-JPY, which is the best performer after Tokyo CPI

A firmer start for fixed benchmark ahead of US PCE and any tariff/trade developments, no move to the morning’s prelim. HICP figures

Crude choppy, precious metals underpinned by the tone while base metals are lower

Geopolitics in focus amid updates on Panama, Ukraine minerals deal and further damage to the Sudzha station

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Mtl JP]

104.14 my version of DLRx
making 2x top atm

[GVI Forex 2]

HEATMaP is only a snapshot in time… dollar u=is uop now vs all but USDJPY, which is ell off its low.

There may be a reaction to PCE but tariffs will make it a new ball game for those looking ahead.

[Mtl JP]

heatmap “the dollar trading firmer except”

is rather historically aligned with end-of-month theatrics by money managers
usually favoring the dollar

[Mtl JP]

thks to cnbc bi-line

“February’s personal consumption expenditures price index is due at 8:30 a.m. ET and could confirm whether investors should be concerned about sticky inflation, especially after the Federal Reserve recently raised its inflation forecast. Economists polled by Dow Jones see the headline PCE price index reading rising 0.3% in February and 2.5% from 12 months earlier.”

10-yr 4.33 dowm a tad

[GVI Forex 2]

Correlation

USDJPY seems to be correlating with the riwk on/off mood

US stocks bounced off the lows, USDJPY did the same.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD DAILY CHART –    What’s the next target?

New record high… next target is only a guess (3100)

Now needs to hold above 3050-57 to keep a strong bid,,, only back below 3048 would negate the risk.

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

.. the dollar trading firmer except vs. the JPY, a reversal of what wax seen at this time yesterday as mood turns to risk off  (and an unchanged GBPISD… weaker EURGBP)

What caught me eye:

USDJPY came within 10 pips of 151.30 and then went into retreat

EURUSD printed 1.08 (6th day in a row) but no higher

XAUUSD at a new record high

Tame EZ flash CPI

UK retaik salea beat

Looking ahead

Key data focus will be on US PCE

Monday is month/quarter end

Wednesday is reciprocal tariff day

Spring forward for clocks this weekend

 

[Mtl JP]

Carney says Canada cannot rely on U.S. any longer and must achieve ‘economic autonomy’

such as thusly:
““Over the coming weeks, months, and years, we must fundamentally reimagine our economy,” Mr. Carney said. “We will need to ensure Canada can succeed in a drastically different world. The old relationship we had with the U.S. based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military co-operation is over.”

carney’s assertions

[Mtl JP]

usdcad 1.4313
marc carney, sofar current canadian PM explaining and predicting things about president Trump’s tariffs:

Canada election: Carney says ‘nothing is off the table’ to fight Trump’s tariffs

we will … blablabla … roar

[GVI Forex 2]

Just posted in our blog

Will currency rebalancing impact month and quarter end trading

[Mtl JP]

retest is actually two words: “re” and “test”
think about the implications for the energy dynamics of the trading crowd

[Belgrade Bobby]

When we are on it already, let me just say one thing – that “retest” is The best when it comes to R/R and profit size. So lean on it a bit more….

[Dora]

Based on last 10 years testing – 96%

[Belgrade Bobby]

And what is the Probability of “all that” Dora? And not only last week and half, but backtesting that you did 😀

[Dora]

Mtl, when I mentioned “retest” what I meant is not a retest of some level , but represents a pattern that was named by one that thought me all that and it has nothing to do with Candles as well. That much I can say… Thank you on your insights – I really appreciate it !

[Mtl JP]

Dora 7:04 .. retest … under my skin …

the ying yang about whichever s result of a “retest” is that it is game between buyers and sellrs and the chipping away at them and their respective reasons for flushout as multiple returns are a manifestations of new oand/or additional players.

I suggest that the gaming in FX is not subject to the traditional buy low sell high theories seen in stocks.

One can see market commentary here on g-v about something called “sustained” but without numerical value mentioned. For that, I suggest to study the meaning of “wick”s or “tail”s on a time bar – not to minimize the shape of the candle’s body – and see if that can help trade with bit more confidence.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR =  5600-5800?]

No change calling it a 5600-8800 range where 5700 is the neutral… Expect more chop unless either side of 5597-00/-5788-5800 is taken iut

Beware of erratic swings into month/quarter end but hard to see the upside running away ahead of the April 2 reciprocal tariff day.

[Belgrade Bobby]

GME – GameStop Corp.

GameStop Just Went Full Crypto–And Wall Street Is Panicking

GameStop  GME just dropped a bombshell and investors are reeling. The company announced it’s ditching more of its retail footprint and diving headfirst into Bitcoin (BTC-USD), raising $1.3 billion via zero-coupon convertible bonds to buy the cryptocurrency as a treasury reserve asset. Shares initially surged 14% on the buzz, but that excitement didn’t last long. Within 24 hours, the stock nosedived nearly 25% at 2.07pm, giving back all its gains and then some. While retail traders lit up the meme-stock boards, analysts were quick to question whether this pivot is a bold reinvention or a desperate roll of the dice.

Let’s not sugar-coat it: GameStop’s core business is bleeding. Sales fell 28% year-over-year, and it’s closed a quarter of its stores in the past year. Management says the Bitcoin move is about optimizing returns and staying liquid, but the timing raised eyebrows. Crypto markets have already surged 27% since November so why now? Strategy  MSTR pulled off a similar playbook in 2020 and saw its stock skyrocket, but it’s sitting on a massive Bitcoin stash and trades at a tighter premium. GameStop? Not quite the same setup, and investors know it.

Where is Roaring Kitty now…meow meow 😀

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Resistances: 1.08200, 1.08600 & 1.09150

Supports: 1.07700, 1.07350 & 1.07150

Close tonight below 1.08000 ( preferably below 1.08900) would be Bearish for tomorrow.

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURGBP Daily

Resistances: 0.83400, 0.83550 & 0.83850

Supports: 0.83235, 0.83150 & 0.83050

Direction is Down

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCAD Daily

Resistances: 1.43300, 1.44015 & 1.44450

Supports: 1.42750, 1.42350 & 1.42050

Direction is still Down.

Only break of 1.43300 might change that view.

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin

88.750 represents an important resistance level in this moment.

If BTC doesn’t surmount it tomorrow, it might dip again

Resistances: 88.750, 90.800 & 92.750

Supports: 86.850, 86.200 & 85.450

 

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY – Key resistance cited

Chart: Positive but faces a key resistance at 151.30, which stays at risk while above 150.50-60.

Note weak JPY crosses (e.g. firmer GBPJPY) adding to USDJPY demand’

I have not seen any specific news to account for the weaker JPY, which reminded me that March 31 is Japanese fiscal yearend.

I remember when this was a key time for FX and stocks but have not heard much talk about it in recent years. So, no clue whether this has been a factor but something to keep an eye on once March 31 passes.

 

[Dora]

EURUSD 20 min Once again 1,2,3 perfect. 21 pip I will admit : now I watch 4 same charts on different time frames waiting for this signal. I still have a problem with the “retest”, but it is getting under my skin lately.

[Adam Global]

keep buying gold

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART –   New record high but by…

So, as suggested, XAUUSD was biding its time before making a fresh run at a new record high… so far by just 42 to 3059

To confirm a new leg up, the former high at 3057 needs to become support.

In any cade, keeps a bid as long as it trades above 30398.

[Author]

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