[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 YEAR BOND YIELD  – Down on the day but up from pre-CPI data…Forex paying notice

[GVI Forex 2]

Dollar got hit on CPI miss on downside but as I said, this is pre-tariff data

Bond yields barely moved… EURUSD 1.11 is a pivotal level

[GVI Forex 2]

US data next on deck

CPI is for March beforte the tariff chaos

SEE our Economic Data Calendar

[Mtl JP]

heading into NY session
–
Looking at CNBC f-page, all US stocks boxes are red implying a “down” open. USD is also weak(er), bonds are higher. CPI at 8:30 but that is likely to have an effect of mosquito splatter on windshield grandly subject to trade tariffs related headlines especially as “to the end” is not yet near or at it.

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – ger30

In just 3 days DAX has recovered about 50% of a previous loss.

Heavy Fundamentals are going to continue to drive it, and until Geo Political situation is solved ( or at least calmed down) we can expect this kind of violent behaviour to continue.

We have to continue drawing trendlines and watch how it all looks on the big picture, but do not be fixed on that.

One “wrong” statement can send it in  both directions within a day – Up and the Down in the same hysterical way.

As long as DAX stays above 19.500 on the weekly basis, it will consolidate.

In some wild dreams, using experience with similar situations I can tell you that it is possible to see DAX rallying Up all the way to 25K , just as a market reaction to previous Drop.

In reality, it should slowly consolidate once all the bullets are spent ( in geopolitical BS arena), and start to make smaller waves up and down….and it should take at least months .

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

1.10950 Resistance

Next hurdle 1.11500

Supports: 1.10500, 1.10300 & 1.09850

This is anyone’s guess now – but for EURUSD to continue Up and above 1.11500 , Today it has to stay above 1.09850 at any cost – or else….

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

USD softer, European bourses gain and US futures wane ahead of CPI

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses gain as they react to Trump’s 90-day tariff pause whilst US futures wane.

USD is softer vs. most peers as markets digest Trump’s tariff walk back.

“Beautiful” trade for USTs, Gilts bid but fading, Bunds languish in the red.

Crude remains subdued while base metals surge and gold holds onto gains.

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART –  One level wtanding in the way

Back above 3136, the only level standing in the way of the record high, would need to be taken out to put 3168  in play again.

Keeps a bid while above 3045-55

Trading tip: This is a classic example of what happens after a correction runs out of steam when it harder for the market to absorb (in this case) fresh buying…. BUT will need to make a new high for this to play out in a classic way.

 

[Mtl JP]

beware of honey on lips and poison in heart
–
China says dialogue with US must be based on mutual respect
By Reuters
April 10, 2025 3:33 AM EDT

BEIJING, April 10 (Reuters) – China’s commerce ministry said on Thursday that China is open to dialogue with the U.S. but this must be on the basis of mutual respect and equality.

Pressure, threats and blackmail are not the right way to deal with China, ministry spokesperson He Yongqian told a regular press briefing when asked about whether the world’s two largest economies have started tariff negotiations.
China will “follow through to the end” if the U.S. insists on its own way, He said.

Reporting by Beijing Newsroom; Editing by Jacqueline Wong

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

…

…markets that have gone fton fear (panic) => then relief => and now caution

The dollar has backed iff but is well within current ranges

What caught my eye is the quick. USDJPY retreat from 148, EURUSD back above 1.10 (still pivotal)

XAUUSD extended its rebound back above 3100

Global stocks staged relief rallies, US stocks lower after yesterday’s mega rallies… US500 backed off after reaching s 50% FIBO retracement

Looking ahead. US weekly jobless claims, CPI for last month before tariff turmoil

[Mtl JP]

in reference to JP 10:16 asia aping US stocks or not

Japan’s Nikkei jumps over 9% to lead gains in Asia after Trump pauses tariffs

Nikkei 225 closed 9.13% higher at 34,609 while the broader Topix index advanced 8.09% to 2,539.40.

South Korea’s Kospi index surged 6.60% to close at 2,445.06 while the small-cap Kosdaq gained 5.97% to 681.79.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 4.54% to end the day at 7,709.60.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 rose 1.31% to end the day at 3,735.32 while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 2.06% to close at 20,681.78.

monkey c monkey do
but it is not a hard rule, is it ?

[ST London]

SP500

All it did was come back 50%
This therefore gives opportunity to those that did not previously sell to now sell and then likely we create a trading range
Fridays close will be interesting

[Mtl JP]

GVI 10:37 – concider that it is “amateur hour”. It has been an “amateur hour” for some time now.

The good thing about it being an “amatature hour” is that the amateurism dumbfounds all the butter-fly bow wearing assorted professors and PhDs, co-authoring op pieces in NYT.

Amazingly, even co-channeled collecive exhasperation that President Trump is doing things in a way that has never been done before does not suggest that they could successfully trade current environment.

In the meantime, it is likely that some cleaning out of money from markets has occured. Such as those h/fs trading on margin for example.
Is that a good thing ? Is cutting off gangreened toes a good thing ?

===

China has screamed and vowed to ‘fight to the end’ against Trump tariffs.
I think the forum – me included – could use an interpretation from a Chinese culture-al what “to the end” means.

[GVI Forex 2]

In our blog

Reciprocal Tariff Formula: Is it Amateur Hour at the White House?

I wrote an article that I almost fell off my chair as I watched Trump announce reciprocal tariff rates on April 2. Well, this time I fell off my chair as I read an article on how those punitive rates were appeared to be the result of miscalculations and inaccurate methodology.

Reciprocal Tariff Formula: Is it Amateur Hour at the White House?

 

 

[Mtl JP]

ST London / all my msm (libtard) news channels that I flip through this 6pm news express total amazement at markets turnaround, crediting “trump”.

—

Asia markets are still closed at this time.
Any calls on how traders will or not ape american markets ?

[ST London]

Here is what happened

Trump and friends saw equities plummet and bonds join in

It was the bond market that made him blink,

After paying no attention to the stock market collapse that Trump created, he is taking credit for the big jump today.

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 4HOUR CHART – Up like a rocket

When NAS rockets 12+% higher in one day, all I can do is present the chart with levels on it.

As noted with US500, the low is in and at a minimum a two-way risk has been restored.

The question is, if we know the bottom, where is the top

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4HOUR CHART – What can I say?

What do you say when stocks move up 9+%?

If we know the bottom, where is the top?

Well, low is in and at a minimum it restores a two-way risk to a one-way market.

Next obstacle is to regain 5470 and 5500. .

Now I don’t want to take credit for the tariff delay, I wrote this over the weekend in

Wake Up White House, you have a panic on your hands!

How about postponing tariffs for a month to calm markets and give time to negotiate with other countries?

To put the price action in perspective. Here are FIBOS for 6143-4798

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

Dollar – Russian Ruble – USDRUB

An interesting development.

One would expect Ruble to be worth nothing till now, especially taking into account 374,62 Sanction packages out of EU…

In last 4 months it got 30% stronger…I should stop watching News ..something is wrong with this picture ( if you really believe in news media that is)

Dollar found a support just above 80, and now has resistances at 88 & 90 respectively.

In my view, this is a median price – channel being between 58 & 115

[Belgrade Bobby]

TESLA – TSLA

OK – technical levels still mean something…

Resistance 275.00 & 291.85

Supports: 258.00 & 230.00

That was a strong bounce, but before it can surmount 292 pressure keeps to be on the down side.

[Belgrade Bobby]

NIO Inc.

Resistance at 3.40 & 3.55

Support 3.05 & 2.90

In this sharp downtrend , question is not “is it going to turn Up” but “how low it can go”

Now below 3.60, two levels are possible targets : 2.40 & 2.10

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nasdaq – NDX

2.500 pips rebound – guys meant it seriously…

Resistance: 19.500 & 20.350

Support: 18.300 & 16.950

Scary ranges…

This is something Trump Was right about – some people will get very rich 🙂

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks surge3 higher…see headlines below

Conspirscy theory saysa someone knew the news given the way dtocks get boiuncung back earlier

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Anonymous]

EURUSD:- Target @ 1.1036 breached.

XAUUSD:- Target @ 3000.40 breached.

USDCHF:- looking very gorgeous ;-P

Will post ST and LT forecasts when not so busy.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART –  Classic example

This is a classic example of what happens after a correction runs out of steam when it harder for the market to absorb (in this case) fresh buying.

Now needs to hold 3045-55 to keep a bid.

Back abive 3136 would be needed to out the record high in play again

[Alex Lugano]

“This seemingly ‘sell America’ trade is one that’s now dominating the rising recession risk theme that typically would have pushed yields down,” economists at ING said.

The dollar – often a safe haven in times of turmoil – fell broadly, while investors fled to the Swiss franc and gold.

The dollar index  DXY, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.5% to 102.26, with the euro  EURUSD up 0.78% at $1.1037. Against the Japanese yen  USDJPY, the dollar weakened 0.98% to 144.84.

Against the Swiss franc  USDCHF, the dollar weakened 1.01% to 0.839. Spot gold  class=”logo-PsAlMQQF xxxsmall-PsAlMQQF letter-PsAlMQQF” crossorigin=”” v:shapes=”_x0000_i1032″>GOLD rose 3.03% to $3,074.35 an ounce.

The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes  US10Y rose 12.4 basis points to 4.384%, from 4.26% late on Tuesday.

Potentially adding to the pressure on Treasuries was an auction of new 10-year notes later on Wednesday – hot on the heels of a weak three-year sale the day before – that could prove a crucial litmus test of investor appetite for U.S. government debt.

US STOCKS RISE EARLY

U.S. stocks were in positive territory early, with investors weighing whether recent sharp selling may have been overdone, although trading remained choppy as it has been all week.

[Alex Lugano]

Treasuries, U.S. dollar sell off as Trump trade war drives recession fears

Key points:

·         Trump’s tariffs on China trigger fears of recession

·         U.S. Treasuries and dollar hit by selloff, yields rise sharply

·         U.S. stocks higher in early trading, led by Nasdaq

·         The latest escalation in the trade war between the United States and China rattled global markets again on Wednesday, with Treasuries and the U.S. dollar falling in a selloff of some U.S. assets.

·         U.S. stocks edged higher in early New York trading, however, led by a more than 1% rise in the Nasdaq and with technology  S5INFT leading gains among S&P 500 sectors.

·         U.S. President Donald Trump’s eye-watering 104% tariffs on China came into effect on Wednesday, prompting a swift retaliation from Beijing in the form of duties of 84% on U.S. imports.

·         U.S. Treasuries saw fresh selling pressure Wednesday in a sign that investors were dumping their safest assets and heading for cash.

·         The violent selloff in Treasuries was reminiscent for some of the dash-for-cash at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, and it reignited fears of fragility in the world’s biggest bond market.

·         Many investors worry that Trump’s wide-ranging tariffs will be severe enough to trigger a recession and force the Federal Reserve into cutting interest rates, and so they dumped their Treasury holdings, driving up yields as bond prices dropped.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 20 min

Are we getting ready for another attempt Up ?

For reasonable good signal, it has to stay above 1.10500 in this 20 min bar.

However it is a bit late in the day, so I do not expect lots of action.

1.10850 might prove hard nut to crack this time….

[ST London]

I sent this to Jay last night

Watch 1.1040 / 1.1120 / 1.1190 see how these levels might potentially line up with your software

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD up $100

More logical than collateral damage following through

Stays bid while shove 3045/55 (scroll down to see chart)

[Author]

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