[GVI Forex 2]

CME Fedwatch 80/20 odds for a Sept Fed rate cut

 

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD)

Consolidating Friday’s sharp gains as bulls regain control.

However, to build momentum for a run at 3439, the 3377 level would need to be broken and then become support.

Drilling down shows supports at 3350/45/34

XAUUAD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a Heatmap shows

No aftershocks following Friday’s market earthquakes that saw the dollar and stocks tumble

The dollar is off opening week lows as it consolidates but still feeling effects if its tumble

EURUSD so far holding 1.1550

USDJPY briefly tested 148+

CHF is the underperformer (USDCHF up over 0.6%)

Gold is consolidating as well after rising sharply on Friday

US stocks have recovered some of Friday’s losses

US bond yields are up a touch after plunging on Friday on raised expectations of a Sept rate cut

[Mtl JP]

euro 1.1550

could be Sup
or not

[Mtl JP]

USDCAD 1.1780
–
canadian msm blowing hard enthusiasm on behalf of carney / team that a satisfactory deal w / “washington” is coming

[Mtl JP]

just sat down at my screen

EURO 1.1586/87 , coincidently same price at fridays close

price range so far says Trump’s BSL’s treatement a nothing-burger to market.

[GVI Forex 2]

Crude oil opens lower

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[GVI Forex 2]

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening News

]p [‘;;’;;

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[GVI News]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

The week ahead in global economics focuses on central bank policy decisions, trade developments, and key labor and inflation data. In Asia, the Reserve Bank of India is expected to hold its benchmark rate at 5.50% after cutting aggressively earlier this year, citing falling inflation and slowing industrial output. Australia’s household spending and trade figures may push the Reserve Bank of Australia closer to another rate cut, while New Zealand’s labor market report is expected to show a slight drop in employment and a modest rise in the unemployment rate.

In Europe, recent EU-US trade developments have introduced more questions than clarity, with new U.S. tariffs weighing on sentiment—especially in Germany’s auto sector. Upcoming industrial production and trade data from Germany, France, and Italy will help gauge the depth of the impact. Meanwhile, Eurozone retail sales are expected to rebound modestly, offering limited relief.

In the U.S., July’s jobs report sharply disappointed with just 73,000 payrolls added and significant downward revisions to previous months, boosting expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. Although layoffs remain relatively subdued, rising jobless claims and longer unemployment durations are early signs of labor market softening. Productivity is forecast to rebound in Q2, but cost pressures are easing, suggesting mixed signals for the economy’s underlying momentum.

Econodayv

[Mtl JP]

no opening GAPs worth playing
–
only thing somewhat entertaining is the over-the-weekend parade of chicken littles – like l sommers for ex. – having something to squawk about what makes President Trump’s uqnique strenght, namely that he does not shy to tell and say what he thinks, what most people know as well and which more often not matches with that what “polite” people with square careers / social standing think as well but simply will not say in public.

[GVI News]

Small Gaps on the open

These snippets sum up the fallout from Friday’s jobs report

Jobs data revisions raise doubts on Fed’s ability to gauge economic trends

Trump orders removal of BLS head, fueling worries over data integrity

[GVI Forex 2]

[GVI Forex 2]

And here is a reality and maybe the nee normal.

The tariffs are a substantial new source of revenue for the federal government. The budget may start to depend on it.

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, we are living in a different world

This is from the nyt article ST posted

Many businesses chose to absorb the additional tax during the early days of President Trump’s trade war. But evidence is emerging that they are running out of options to keep prices stable in the face of deteriorating profit margins, suggesting that the tariffs could have a more pronounced effect on prices in the months ahead.

[Mtl JP]

GVI 9:55 – Your govt currently spends just a bout a $trillion in interest. Various “expert” yakkers claim that the US can not default and so, allegedly, it wont default. Because, again allegedly, jerome gang’s outfit will print what-ever is necessary to “buy” the debt. This is where understanding of meaning of “depreciation” of money concept comes in.

President Trump’s tariff program is getting a lot of credit for rising prices – i.e. inflation.
By contrast the inflation component in the last two “stagflation” episodes was attributed to price dynamics of crude oil, allegedly an external factor when compared to tariffs.

[GVI Forex 2]

This is turning out to be a timely article

In our blog

Who Ultimately Pays the Cost of U.S. Tariffs?

[ST London]

Reality check for equity markets

After a Lag, Consumers Begin to Feel the Pinch of Tariffs

There are growing signs that President Trump’s levies are filtering through to consumer prices, as companies exhaust options for keeping them stable. NYT

Berkshire takes $3.8 billion Kraft Heinz write-down, operating profit falls. Reuters

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights: 4th-8th August 2025

Highlights include US ISM Services PMI, BoE, BoJ SOO, Canada & NZ Jobs, China Trade and OPEC+

[GVI Forex 2]

With the economy showing signs of slowing and prices likely to rise, it’s time to revisit this article.

In our bl;og

Stagflation Fears Resurface Amid Trump Tariffs and Fed Uncertainty

Stagflation Returns to the Spotlight as Trump’s Tariffs Raise Economic Alarm

[Mtl JP]

Maybe President Trump is mis-rewarding the BLS comissioner:

on that one day market re-priced the odds of a Sep cut from approx 38% to 80.3%

CME Tool

[GVI News]

Purely anecdotal but if typical, watch out.

I saw a news clip about a small chocolate shop in Texas where the owner had to raise prices due to the impact of tariffs.

His cheapest chocolate bar used to cost $9 and is now $11, a 20+% price increase.

[GVI Forex 2]

This article is worth reading with special attention ti questions over the reliability of US economi data

Trump fires US labor official over data and gets earlier than expected chance to reshape Fed

…Friday began with BLS reporting the U.S. economy created only 73,000 jobs in July, but more stunning were net downward revisions showing 258,000 fewer jobs had been created in May and June than previously reported.

“We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social….

[Mtl JP]

Fed Officials Take Cool Jobs Report in Stride
New York Fed’s John Williams says labor market remains solid, even after unusually large downward revisions to job gains for May and June
By Nick Timiraos, Aug. 1, 2025 8:59 pm ET

[Mtl JP]

NYT chicken littles Ben Casselman, Tony Romm write that

“Economists said ousting the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics could undermine confidence in government economic data.”

awww … could eh ?
that d be assuming there is confidence in govvy data

[Mtl JP]

chicken littles have new feed to peck at
quawk ka ka ka kwaak

Politics Trump ‘soft, weak and afraid’ in firing labor statistics chief McEntarfer: Wyden

hair on fire about trump allegedly politicizing things, greatest freee market not easy to fool … yuk yuk yuk

[GVI Forex 2]

The blame game does not work with financial markets

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Mtl JP]

not the shy type
Trump Says Powell ‘Should Resign’ Like Fed Governor Kugler – bloomberg

[Mtl JP]

Fed Governor Kugler is resigning, giving Trump a nominee on committee that sets interest rates – cnbc

[Mtl JP]

EURO high 1.1596 on my toy

market may close – officially – at 17:00 (or is it 16.59.59?
BUT my dealer stops executing at 16:5x.
basta for me

[Author]

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