[GVI Forex 2]

In FX, tug-of-war EURUSD vs GBPUSD over weaker EURGBP

[GVI Forex 2]

Swiss cclose to a trade deal

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[GVI Forex 2]

House likely to vote on Wednesday

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[GVI Forex 2]

Senate passage now wideely expecred

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[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• Extending its high to 4105 with targets 4138 and more important 4160 above it.
• To build momentum 4071 needs to hold as support and see a break of 4105

XAUUSD  1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD UPDATE

• USD (up) trymg to mirror stocks backing off but EURUSD so far holding above its 1.1541 low.
• BUT only back above 1.1550 negates the risk,

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US stocks backing off… US500 back below 6800

My question still asks: Is it just a relief rally of more?

[Mtl JP]

1.1550 as I type
I am biased so my Qtn is …
which way will euro go:
a) towards 1.1620-ish OR
b) low 1.15-eens

TIA

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1550 again and again and again and again and again
–
ok grasshopper, what does it mean ?
– that the dlr is confused ?
— that players are already eyeballing thin market tomorrow ?
— keeping powder dry for tom”s ZEW ?

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY UPDATE

• Use 154 as a pivot
• 154.50 appears to be the current line in the sand
• US yields backjing off after firming overnight (correlation?)

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks popped higher at the opening (US500 above 6800)

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• All green candles since the spike low to 24610.
• To make this more than a relief rally and put 26000 in play again, 25783 would need to be firmly taken out.

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

• Relief rally or is there more to it?
• For more to it, would need to establish 6800 as support (current obstacle) and regain 6833+.
• On the downside, keeps a bid while above 6747
• Intra-day support starts at 6775-89

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Pre-Market Movers

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[ST London]

Fun trading times ahead

The prospect of a deluge of delayed U.S. economic data over the coming weeks is likely to make for noisy and potentially volatile trading, even though there’s a chance some reports may never be released in full, due to data-collection issues.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD UPDATE

• Key levels are above 1.32, which is the pivotal obstacle
• Keeps an intra-day bid while above 1.3139
• Note, getting some support out of as dip in EURGBP (why EURUSD has been lagging)

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUYSD UPDATE

• Inside day, currently about unchanged on the day
• Key levels 1.1529 amnd 1.1590
• Break of 1.1590 needed to build upward momentum
• Below 1.1528 would break up momentum

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

Politics as usual

The 8 Democrat Senators that broke ranks and voted to reopen the government were either retiring or not up for re-electionm until 2028 or 2030.

So it was an orchstrated breaking of ranks to give Democrats cover to end the shutdown without losing face.

[Mtl JP]

From a piece on cnbc

Europe Markets Millennials are piling into alternative assets. Here’s where they’re investing Hugh Leask, Nov 10 2025

* Millennials favor alternative investments — such as venture capital and private markets — as a way of capturing innovation and growth opportunities, particularly in tech.

* Goldman Sachs Asset Management data shows alts now make up about 20% of millennials’ portfolios, while allocations to traditional equities are lower than older age groups.

* As private markets funds chase retail dollars, investment pros acknowledge that more work may be needed on investor education, including among millennials.

hahaha … investor education — is that a bis opp ? when the market delivers “education” all by itself, always

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDJPY UPDATE

• Following path of least resistance buying AUD and selling JPY (AUDJPY)
• Faces resistance at 100.90 and ahead of key 101.21
• Keeps its bid while above 100.39

AUDJPY 4 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

The “US Senate vote”d …
–
sooo … the so easily predictable stock reaction is an excellent gaming political headline bet.
in the meantime the hurdle to reach a final deal is still far from clear
as bernie sanders is frothing
–
EURO 1.1569 as I type
– a technical phenomenon H&S easily recognizable on the 5 – 15 min charts has developped
– – offering a properly risk-parametered trade

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• Break of 4046 (top of the range) so far pausing at 4084
• Targets 4138 and more important 4160 on a firm, 4084 break.
• If not, then support at 4030-46 needs to hold to keep a bid, stronger bid if above 4046..

XAUUSD  4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

• The dollar is trading mixed following the Senate vote that paves the way to end the government shutdown
• The JPY is the underperformer as US bond yields are up
• AUD (followed by NZD and CAD) is the outperformer\
• Green arrows = currencies up vs the usd
• Red arrows = currencies down vs the usd

Whether thus is just a relief reaction remains to be seen.

Not Tuesday is a US holiday but stock markets are open

[GVI Forex 2]

Notable FX Options Expiring Today (NY Cut)

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[GVI Forex 2]

5 Things You Need to Know

APAC stocks traded higher amid the improving US-China trade environment and with hopes of ending the US government shutdown as several Democrats supported Republicans to pass a measure through the procedural vote in a rare Senate session on Sunday.

US Senate voted 60 vs 40 to advance the government funding bill through the procedural hurdle, moving it closer towards passage, after 8 Democrats supported the measure in a rare Sunday session.

Chinese inflation data over the weekend which printed above forecasts, although factory gate prices remained in deflation.

NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO said they have very strong demand in Blackwell chips and asked TSMC (2330 TT) for more wafers to meet strong AI demand.

European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 1.4% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.8% on Friday.

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[ST London]

WASHINGTON – The U.S. Senate on Sunday moved forward on a measure aimed at reopening the federal government and ending a now 40-day shutdown that has sidelined federal workers, delayed food aid and snarled air travel.

Big winners

Gold, Bitcoin stocks Aud

Loser

JPY, chf

[GVI News]

I posted this on Friday so a kick the can deal should not be a total surpise.

Modest relief reaction so far.

Posted on Friday

With Thanksgioving less than 3 weeks away, pressure is on both sides to find a way to end the shutdown. This raises the risk of a surprise headline even though at this point the differences appear to be irreconciable.

Why?

For holiday air travel, the busiest travel day of the year in the U.S. is typically the Sunday after Thanksgiving.

Busiest day: Sunday after Thanksgiving (travelers returning home).
Runner-up days: Wednesday before Thanksgiving and the Friday after.

[Mtl JP]

BoJ Summary of Opinions
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/opinion_2025/opi251030.pdf

[Mtl JP]

so now gamers are free to game the “officials” i.e. BoJ / takaichi and his alleged and speculated on upcoming economic stimulus

[Author]

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