[Mtl JP]

USDCAD 1.3667
– BoC’s macklem yaks at bottom of hour (notes already out)
with Q&A

[GVI Forex 2]

ISM Services PMI Big beat

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[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX Index Moves Higher

Still under heavy pressure…

Frankfurt’s DAX 40 gained ground to trade more than 1% higher on Wednesday, in line with other European peers, following reports that Iran had offered to discuss the conditions for ending the conflict.

While doubts remain about a swift resolution, this news offers a welcome respite for investors.

At the same time, President Trump stated on Monday that the US Navy could escort oil tankers through the paralyzed Strait of Hormuz, alleviating upward pressure on oil prices.

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

European markets wrap: A bit of a breather as dollar, oil prices cool

[Belgrade Bobby]

FX option expiries for 4 March 10am New York cut

EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. The expiries might just help to keep price action more restricted in the session ahead but as is the case in the days before, expect the impact to be rather limited at best. That as there are bigger drivers of trading sentiment in play.

Right now, the dollar remains in a firmer spot amid the broader risk retreat and general unease amid the US-Iran conflict. Adding to that, the downside pressure for EUR/USD is growing after the technical breakdown yesterday here. That is making for a stronger argument for EUR/USD to keep below 1.1600 on the day.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Market Pulse 2

[Belgrade Bobby]

Market Pulse 1

[GVI Forex 2]

Unless I am living in a bubble, is anyone really surprised by the Iranian denial? The surprise (for me at least) was the market reaction to the NYT report.

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[GVI Forex 2]

Crude oil moved up on this jeadline

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[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Catching a bid above 6800 but to build momentum off the 6711 low, the 6905 level would need to be taken out.
• Otherwise, a case can be made for consolidation while between 6700-6900 with 6800 pivotal in dictating the tone.
• Key levels: Trendlines on both sides, 6841 (former resistance), 6805 support

US500 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

SP500 6500?

(X)

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD UPDATE

• Pause above 1.15 has seen a rebound that will have a limited upside unless the former breakdown level at 1.1670 is regained.
• Intra-day, 1.1650 is the pivotal level (high 1.1655), minor support at 1.1625 blocks a return to 1.16.

EURUSD DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US PRE-MARKET MOVERS: CRWD, GTLB, ROST, MRNA, INTC, TSLA, CRWV, ANF

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[GVI Forex 2]

BTCUSD (BITCOIN) UPDATE

• Trying to build momentum off higher lows with the move above 70K requiring a firm break of 72171 to breakout of the current range.
• Back below 70K would be needed to cool the risk.

BTCUSD DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

ADP employment beats, prior month revised lower

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[GVI Forex 2]

Bessent on tariffs

(X)

[GVI Forex 2]

Bessent: Re trade embargo vs Spain

(X)

[Adam Global]

ßitcoin made a huge gain 📈

4% rebound above $70K

[GVI Forex 2]

This seems to be the US game plan but it is not clear why Bessent is commenting on war strategy

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Adam Global]

GBPUSD 📈 is also making gains

Holding below 1.3400

[Adam Global]

EurUsd found support on 1.1600 making gains 📈

[Adam Global]

AusUsd formed a double bottom on 0.700

 

[Adam Global]

GOLD retracing back 📈 with a 2% gain

[ST London]

Asia fallout

The ongoing Middle East eruption shocked Asia’s stock markets on Wednesday, with South Korea’s Kospi plummeting 12% for its worst day ever and Japan’s Nikkei and Taiwan’s benchmark each losing about 4%.

The Korean won hit its weakest in 17 years, while Seoul and several other Asian centers were forced to suspend trading periodically thanks to the scale of the selloff. Reuters

[GVI Forex 2]

XTIUSD UPDATE

• If USD strength is seen as an energy play, then forex traders need to pay attention to the oil market.
• Chart shows a lower top which would need to break 71.60 to build momentum and then break 70.14 to break the uptrend and move into the gap.
• Otherwise, it is just consolidation and headline watching with a focus on the reaction to war news.

XTIUUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News – 4th March 2026

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[ST London]

Why is the USD firming?

Dollar Strength Returns, But For a Different Reason

The dollar strengthened, not purely as a safe haven, but due to relative energy dynamics. The U.S. remains a net energy exporter, meaning higher oil prices hurt Europe and Asia more than the U.S.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• Consolidating within a broad 4996=5419 range after yesterday’s wild session that found support on the brief break below 5000, confirming this as the major bias setting level.
• No nearby levels on the bounce so watch 5200, as above it is needed to give it a better bid. High so far 5202

XAUUSD  1  HOUR  CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

NYT article: US officials skeptical

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

As noted below, Otherwise, it is another headline watching day with the focus mainly on the reaction to news.

Headlines shouldn’t have been market moving (Iran is in the process of choosing a successor) but it’s the reaction that counts as news algos react first and traders reassess later.

[Author]

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