Weekly FX Chart Outlook – Sept 30 – Oct 4
This Is another case where the end of the week will be more important than how it starts out (quarter end).
The key focus will be on US data, specifically PMI’, JOLTS, and the US Jobs report as well as Fed Chair Powell’s speech on the economic outlook on Monday.. See detailed previews in Newsquawk’s Week Ahead report.
US stocks will likely set the risk on/risk iff tone with its focus on whether data support a soft landing for the economy.
.Holidays in China will dampen liquidity, setting up for some volatility this week.
EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART
Assume a 1.10-1.12 range unless there is a solid close outside of it.
Within this range 1.11 ii pivotal but within 1.11-1.12, 1.1150 will take on that role.
Key resistance is the new 2024 high set this past week at 1.1214.
On the downside, 1.1120-25 blocks a return to 1.11.
Key event: EZ Flash CPI
USDJPY DAILY CHART
What do I say about USDJPY after a 450 pip range on Friday (creating the whole range for the week).
To keep it simple.
141.70 blocks exposing 140 and he 139.58 low.
On the upside, there is no obvious resistance level after the sharp move down so watch 142 as that will dictate whether the market makes another run at the low.
GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART
GBPUSD remains an outperformer, trading at a level not seen since early 2022.
With the next key level not until above 1.37, use the most recent high (1.3434) as key resistance.
On the downside, 1.3310 is the make or break level, keeping the risk on the high while above it.
Logic says for GBPUSD to make a serious break to a new high, EURUSD would need to establish above 1.12 and/or EURGBP would need to make another leg down.
USDCAD 4 HOUR CHART
USDCAD ending the week with some upward momentum but would need to take out 1.3443 and the 100/200 (blue/yellow lines) to shift the risk back to 1.36.
Whatever the case, 1.35 I pivotal and will dictate the next directional move in this currency.
AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART
AUDUSD is the other outperformer, extending its high before backing off into Friday’s close.
As the chart shows, it needs to stay above .6868 to keep a strong bid. Only back below .6800-14 would confirm the high is in
The high at .6937 is the new key resistance guarding a move towards .70 and above.
All Charts Courtesy of The Amazing Trader
Weekly FX Chart Outlook – Sept 30 – Oct 4
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