Ukraine – Russia conflict – Geopolitical Crisis
The view from the Financial Markets angle
As I noted in my article, Will Current Geopolitical
Risks Escalate, in our more than 25 years on the
web, we have tried to keep politics off our Forex
Forum…With that said, we do not ignore
geopolitical risks but only focus to the extent they
might impact markets and trading.
Two Geopolitical Crises
This is the case with the two geopolitical crises
facing the world today, Ukraine and the Middle
East, and the impact on financial markets.
Given the complexity of each situation, I will focus
on Ukraine and discuss the Middle East in a
subsequent article.
Ukraine
The thing about trading on a geopolitical crisis is
that the initial reaction often sees the sharpest
reaction and then markets settle in to see if risks
escalate. Whatever the case, the event goes on, the
more immune financial markets get to news
headlines unless there is a shift in risk on either side
(i.e. more or reduced risk).
This is the case with the Russia-Ukraine conflict,
which is about to enter its third year. The fallout on
financial markets has so far been contained after a
bumpy start to the war.
While fighting rages on, the focus has shifted to
whether the US government finally approves an aid
package that would provide some breathing room
for Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky to
continue the war.
Looking ahead, it is doubtful there will be any sort
of cease fire as Russian President Putin will likely
wait to see the results of the US national elections
as Republicans are seen as less supportive of
Ukraine.
This suggests that barring a turn on the battlefield,
the Russian-Ukraine war should not be a factor for
financial markets, at least until the election results
are known
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