Big upside beat in NYS Empire Manufacturing Index.
While this is considered a low impact report, any data pre-FOMC will be scrutinized closely. (dollar is up after the report)
See our Economic Data Calendar
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
After an extraordinary 30-month monetary squeeze designed to zap a post-pandemic inflation spike, the Federal Reserve is finally set to cut interest rates this week – and it’s now only a matter of how much.
With another set of weak industrial and retail readings from China on Saturday and the FBI on Sunday pursuing a second failed assassination attempt on Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, the news backdrop to this long-awaited Fed easing week is agitated to say the least.
Morning Bid: Fed hits easing week, China economy weak
USDJPY MONTHLY CHART – Up like an escalator and down like an elevator
It took nearly a year for USDJPY to climb to nearly 162 following the initial move above 140 and 3 months to fall back below it.
This chart shows the risks if the 140 break holds in a market that, at least to start the week, is hoping the Fed cuts by 50bps.
Logic says this suggests the current FX moves are fragile given the size of the anticipated rate cuts is seen as a toss up.
yes and yes and YES
Stock futures are little changed as investors await major Fed decision: Live updates
… “central bankers are expected to cut rates for the first time since 2020” – yes
just as
“The S&P 500 is less than 1% away from its July record and could notch a new all-time high this week” – – yes
and
“as many investors hope the decision could lower borrowing costs for companies and improve overall earnings growth — boosting economic growth“ — YES!
10-yr Yield | 4:52 AM EDT 3.644%
AND A … JOKE
Harris or Trump? Once Again, Election Results Could Take Awhile.
Curtesy New York Times
THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS
The week begins early, on Saturday Chinese time with the country’s release of monthly industrial production and retail sales data, both of which are expected to slow appreciably. The Federal Reserve, despite indications of continued economic strength, is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. The Bank of England is expected to hold policy steady on Thursday as are the People’s Bank of China and the Bank of Japan, both on Friday.
Canadian consumer prices on Tuesday are expected to break lower to a near target 2.1 percent. UK consumer prices on Wednesday, which will help inform Thursday’s BoE meeting, are expected to hold steady at 2.2 percent.
US retail sales on Tuesday are expected to show underlying strength in contrast to US industrial production which, also posted on Tuesday, is expected to remain flat. The first estimate of New Zealand GDP on Thursday is expected to contract a quarterly 0.4 percent followed by Australia’s August labour force survey, which also on Thursday, is expected to show continued strength.
Econoday
fwiw… UBS has forecasted 275bps.
I some what disagree… FED will either hold or raise them by 25bp now because a rate cut now means they cannot raise them later down the line in stormy weather. and that means the true one who is to meant to become the next US president won’t become president. In any case, Japanese can be helpful in buying short term treasuries since they lend at almost negligible interest rates.
They can think of cutting rates after a few more quarters…
The US needs to become a Saviour Economy as it once was. I would balance geo-economical tensions and keep geo-political dominance by ha-flyin-gas-bags in check… holding rates until inflation lingers/stays below the target level during many quarters would cause “inflation and it’s inflationary effects” to fizzle out.
low rates means people would then keep on borrowing, so that kind of servant mentality of theirs has to go, so they have to save their money (at high rates) so they do not need to take loans… or at least I want it to be that way.
think about it if Americans get outta debt the first thing they do is start helping people.
Americans also do tend to do better business by sourcing high quality goods at very reasonable rates from European and UK companies when they are not under economic uncertainty. They can always take loans from japanese funds to pay for european imports into the mainland, since there is negligible interest rate it would be very easy to pay off provide the tariff levels for european imports and egyptian cotton remains low…
eg. asian tiger economies which are still struggling to carry out a covid reset… The world will not recover from covid for many more decades because it will again become a resurgence in a few years of time.
many of the various economic classes in the asian economies lost their sole breadwinners and future sole breadwinners to covid, additionally some children lost their parents to covid and need to grow up to be sober and sensible young business people, and not turn to crime/join gangs etc. So those supporting them tend to look for stability in savings accounts to finance them through their growing years.
TARGET RATE PROBABILITIES FOR 18 SEPTEMBER 2024 FED MEETING CME FED WATCH TOOL
hahaha 50% odds
markets is a masochist
onto itself
everyone LOVES a rollercoaster n’est pas ?
World Braces for Fed Easing Amid 36-Hour Rate Rollercoaster
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A Full News Events Calendar in the Week Ahead
The Fed has the proof it wants that inflation is slowing, but the next move is still up in the air
A week’s worth of inflation data showed that price pressures have eased substantially.
– jeff cox
EURUSD AND USDJPY – Combine the two majors and one gets: EURJPY
And once again a long-term view can produce a shorter timeframe trade
Re: XAUUSD “to the moon.”
It must be Friday the 13th.
Thursday, it was noted by a particular firm out there that it was the 176th trading day of the year. The firm noted that – “As of this afternoon, the S&P 500 was up 17.6% year-to-date, while last year on the 176th trading day of the year, the index was up 17.7% year-to-date,”
This is where you start looking for black cats in Forex.
OnlineBroker.Fr is the best resource for French language information on the best online trading platforms and crypto exchanges in France.
You may find this useful
What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Why is Risk Management Important in Trading?
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
What are Some Common Risk Management Strategies?
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
How to Implement Risk Management in your Trading Plan
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
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