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side A – “Credit card delinquencies surged in 2023, indicating ‘financial stress,’ New York Fed says” – cnbc
side B – “Dow climbs as Wall Street attempts to move back toward record levels”
Investopedia:
What Is a Discounting Mechanism? A discounting mechanism operates on the premise that the stock market essentially discounts, or takes into consideration, all available information including present and potential future events. When unexpected developments occur, the market discounts this new information very rapidly.
flip flop yik yak
claimed inflation rate slide speed and hot labor = conundrum
that is a good thing for my book – I expect – when the FED is flummoxed
should mean FED stays pat with its policies as it awaits de-flummoxisation (I just made up that technical term)
sleep well peasant
–
Yellen Says Commercial Property Is a Worry, But Regulators Are on It
(Bloomberg February 6, 2024) — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that while losses in commercial real estate are a worry, US regulators are working to ensure that loan-loss reserves and liquidity levels in the financial system are adequate to cope.
ya hear peasant: private
–
Global debt roundtable to discuss rating agencies at Wed meeting
LONDON (Reuters) – Global creditors are set to discuss how rating agencies arrive at some assessments for sovereign creditors’ ratings at a virtual meeting on Wednesday, two sources told Reuters.
The online workshop will focus specifically on rating action on sovereign creditors with regards to debt reprofiling, swaps, buy-backs and debt service suspension, the sources said, asking not to be named because the talks are private. …/..
10-yr 4.092
–
* mester’s yak not helping yield
– 12:45 BoC’s macklem yaks
– 13:00 yellen’s dept peddles 54bln in 3yr paper
– 13:00 kashkari
– 14:00 Collins
– 14:10 macklem presser
– 19:00 harker – on FED’s role in economy (oh please.. pray do tell)
eurdlr 1.0753
– for dlr to get some foothold yield will probably need to see a turn towards and past 4.20%
US CPI next week (feb 13)
And now to conclude todays lesson in real time – about 10 min prior to UK Exit, the mess starts…it is ALWAYS The No Mans Land….Risking it might prove deadly…for your margin…Don’t be disappointed if the position that you held prior to it would make some extra pips…even lots of it…it usually happens the opposite way – Murphy’s Law ! You can sit back , enjoying your freshly made pips and observe what happens .
Yet another observation ( worth apx 30 years 😀 – on UK closing – in about 50 min, things gets messy…so if we close this 30 min above 1.07440, attack at 1.07500 area will happen…and cause of added impact of UK close ( closing the positions, adding to them ) we can easily hit 1.07600..
I am writing this way to help those with less experience understand how it works…
1.07300 held nicely this half hour, and it reached up to 1.07438…is it going to go any further, I have no idea…double top is now formed on 30 min chart , so there is a barrier now….
I was caught numerous times in the trap of crosses…just to see at the end that if I stayed with the original strategy , it would play out well. Because of it, I concentrate on the majors , and if I smell some development coming from crosses, I just sit back…and wait…This spider web of currencies is way to complex to be able to handle it parallelly. I know that some funds are playing it with their AI systems, but no one made a real success with it , so far. For us, individual traders, surviving on 60-40 odds or even less is not something we can afford…Ah, I went way aside in my thoughts 😀
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What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Why is Risk Management Important in Trading?
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
What are Some Common Risk Management Strategies?
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
How to Implement Risk Management in your Trading Plan
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
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