I have been voicing for days my preference for the buy side of US Dollar which some people very understandably felt was not a good idea. I have been on fire on the long side of UsdJpy. I win this time again.
I was short the pair just prior to Powell opening his mouth with DX hitting 101.50 and hit big again. But my position on the pair further out has not changed. Still prefer the buy side overall.
Due in part to major banks ranging in recession projections from between 15% to as high as 35%, if they are correct then if there is a recession it should not be expected to be dramatic barring the occurrence of dramatic scenarios.
The hyperbolic sentiments of 50 to 100bps cuts is ridiculous one might think. Hyperbolic statements create liquidity.
The smile curve in USD is right in the middle at present and so there is plenty of room for risk appetite or doom and gloom since the Dollar appreciates in either scenario.
After all the con-artistry, lies and false claims in the Democratic National Convention and the false figures one thing must be paid attention to –_–
EMPLOYMENT
One has to wonder if these facts surface from Powell today:
The last three BLS quarterly job data revisions:
Minus 612,000
Minus 735,000
Minus 915,000 (actual is more than 818k reported).
Net Job Losses:
Two Million Two Hundred Sixty Two Thousand
· The hire to job openings ratio between 2018-2020 was 0.85 on average.
· The ratio has since fallen to its current rate of roughly 0.35, which is a 500% decrease.
· This equates to hirings having fallen from 8 hires per 10 job postings to 4 out of 10.
For consideration regarding real economics according to the respected source Resume Builder:
1. 4 out of 10 jobs posted in the US in 2024 were “fake.”
2. 3 out of every 10 jobs in 2024 had roles that were not “real.”
US 10-YR 3.848%
Stock futures inch up with all eyes on Powell’s key Jackson Hole speech – CNBC
Expecting dovish yakking from powell, eh ?
Player expectations are pricing rate cuts over the next three meetings, at least one of them being 50pts.
What are the odds of powell being bigger dove than he is currently perceived ?
How about powell wanting it both ways, i.e talk “caution” ?
Yakker Deck is expecting a profusion
– Bostic (on TV 2x this morn before powell)
– Goolsbee practically everywhere and nearly all the time in the afternoon
After powell BoE bailey grabs the microphone
Highest Trade Profit Opportunity Economic Calendar Events
Volatility comes from the higher the spread between expectation and the announcement
1 – FOMC (The Federal Open Market Committee)
Effect on Bonds and USD pairs; sometimes equity market
1b) = FED chair post-fomc announcement Press Conference
Sometimes the chair digs a hole with their tonque and gum-flapping
2 – NFP (Non-farm Payrolls
3 – CPI (Consumer Price Index)
4 – ECB rate announcement
5 – PCE Inflation (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
6 – Retail Sales (Dollar Sales and NOT unit sales)
7 – GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Quartely Release
8 – PMI (Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index)
9 – FED Chair Speeches
Magnitude and direction of market reaction is typically conditional on how far data deviates from market expectations.
Traders need to stay in tune with latest market themes for gaging potential trading opportunities.
Trading risk management and trading tactics are individual trader responsibility.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Jerome Powell takes centre stage at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole jamboree on Friday but the Fed chair would have to sound super hawkish to stop the dollar (.DXY), opens new tab recording one of its worst weeks of the year.
Gold related stocks I view and/or participate in have option/futures/forward/counter/other metrics dominant on the buy side entering the NY session.
Eu metrics are heavily weighted to the sell side.
U/Y metrics are balanced and flattening with one exception which is heavily dominant on the buy side.
GBPUSD MONTHLY CHART – 2023 HIGH STILL LOOMS
Major level remains at the 1.3142 = 2023 high
Should it be broken, I would use 1.3150 as well to confirm.
A failure to take out 1.3142 would be glaring.
On the downside, a break of 1.3076 would be needed to dent the upside risk and suggest a top is in..
Note, a weaker EURGBP (last .8469) continues to BE A Source of GBPUSD demand while EURUSD is up (slightly) on the day but lagging due to cross offsets so keep an eye on this cross.
Otherwise, a long wait until Powell’s speech.
Summary
Fed expected to cut rates at September meeting
Powell telegraphed policy easing in July remarks
Jackson Hole speech begins at 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT)
JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming, Aug 23 (Reuters) – U.S. economic data is giving the Federal Reserve the green light to cut interest rates, financial markets are aligned for the first move, and the central bank all but gave the game away on Wednesday when a readout of its July meeting showed a “vast majority” of policymakers agreed the policy easing likely would begin next month.
With Fed rate cut set, Powell may focus on explaining US economic conditions at Jackson Hole
IF I were the FED chair ( hihihi)
–
you would do well (for your own welfare and wellbeing) to remember that the FED’s first job is to protect the Banking System befoare the peasant population. In fact IF the peasants in aggregate bshould somehow threaten the Banking System, the gloves are to be taken off.
OnlineBroker.Fr is the best resource for French language information on the best online trading platforms and crypto exchanges in France.
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What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Why is Risk Management Important in Trading?
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
What are Some Common Risk Management Strategies?
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
How to Implement Risk Management in your Trading Plan
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
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