I don’t remember a time when all the key currencies were focused on pivotal levels, which will dictate respective tones going forward.
(EURUSD 1.12, USDJPY 145, GBPUSD 1.32, USDCAD 1.35, AUDUSD .68)
See our
THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)
German CPI flashes on Thursday aren’t expected to show much improvement unlike Eurozone flashes on Friday where forecasters see the headline slowing to 2.3 from 2.6 percent with the HICP reading, however, only seen slowing to 2.8 from 2.9percent. Australian monthly CPI on Wednesday is expected to cool to 3.4 from 3.8 percent in a report that will help set expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next move.
US durable goods orders on Monday are expected to recover only a portion of June’s sharp decline on aircraft cancellations. US consumer confidence on Tuesday is expected to remain depressed while PCE price indexes on Friday, part of the personal income and outlays report, are expected to show modest pressure on the month (up 0.2 percent) and no more than moderate pressure on the year (up 2.6 percent).
GDPs from India and Canada are both on Friday, with the former expected to slow to 6.9 from 7.8 percent year-over-year growth and the latter expected to slow to monthly growth of 0.1 from 0.2 percent.
Econoday
I found the comments from Michael interesting due to, in part, that I am and remain a verifiable Quant. Not Youtube Quant but real Quant. A Quant who has actually run an investment firm and had coffee over a chair in multiple cities by invite, all paid for. It is how this CTA approaches markets. That said, After careful analysis I believe that person is almost absolute in analysis.
Very simply, if you take a breath and look at the math “vibration” there is a median in markets which will be met 100% of the time. What matters as an active trader is your timing within the timing. That is difficult.
For example, anyone can say that Euro will hit Ysquared in time. That would be theoretically correct regardless of indicator. The variables is what causes discount in equations, factors that cannot replace real time motion.
And so, you must factor such variations. Which is why such things as standard deviations of 3.0% and 3.5% matter more than the usual 2/0% deviations that you hear about on any given form of media, including the more popular formats.
After back testing and real time performance, the back testing is garbage in real world scenarios when you are on the phone with a major broker. They can tell if you are a skilled linguist or for real.
I concur with the mention of vibration in markets. I have a deep past with calculations that lives depend on, and so there is no room for variance.
I felt it important to acknowledge that prior to making a call for the end of week price level in various currencies. My hit rate is 98.6%.
How you approach it is what matters based on how you attack markets and your existing tolerance levels.
Since calling the top in USDJPY AT 160-162, I have been posting updates from one of Global-View’s long time and highly respected members who I nicknamed the “Savvy Trader.”
Scroll below and you will see highlights from and links to blog posts with updates from the Savvy Trader.
Scroll to the bottom and you will see his latest USDJPY update and trading strategy.
A New USDJPY Update From the Savvy Trader
Newsquawk Week Ahead 26th – 28th August
Summers says
(Bloomberg) Fed Recovered From Egregious Inflation Mistake
• Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says the Fed has redeemed itself.
• He told Bloomberg TV the central bank’s post-COVID policy was an “egregious” mistake.
• But the Fed appears to have avoided his worst-case recession predictions, he said.
Future jobs prints could sway this. For instance, if unemployment or nonfarm payroll data worsens, analysts have argued that a deeper cut could be worthwhile.
Yeah ! …. And start a TREND
OnlineBroker.Fr is the best resource for French language information on the best online trading platforms and crypto exchanges in France.
You may find this useful
What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Why is Risk Management Important in Trading?
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
What are Some Common Risk Management Strategies?
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
How to Implement Risk Management in your Trading Plan
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
© 2024 Global View