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EURUSD
After reaching the new low yesterday, another sideways to Up formation is in the creation.
Immediate support is at 1.07250/300
It is trying to reach 1.07650 , and it should, prior to the next leg down.
Albeit, we can see some brief tests of 1.07000 area, but we need that Uptick to be done , for the downtrend to continue in full force.
USDJPY 1-hour chart
JPY is the strongest currency today.
After the sharp spike on US CPI, USDJPY is currently retracing.
With no supports (red lines) until 149.23,
FIBO levels: Check out our Fibonnaci calculator
50% = 150.055 (broken)
61.8% = 149.86
76.4% = 149.58
So, as long as 149,86 holds, the focus stays on 150, which will dictate the tone for this pair.
EURUSD Analysis: Downtrend Continues, Resistance and Downside Targets
The EURUSD pair remains below a falling trend line on the 4-hour chart, indicating the continuation of the downtrend from 1.1139.
As long as the price remains below the falling trend line, it is likely that the downside move will persist. The next target area for the pair would be around 1.0670, followed by 1.0600.
The initial resistance level is located at 1.0750. A breakthrough above this level would suggest a consolidation phase for the downtrend is underway. In such a scenario, the price could retest the 1.0805 resistance level. If this level is surpassed, it may trigger further upside movement towards the falling trend line.
It is important to note that only a break above the trend line resistance would indicate the completion of the downtrend.
In summary, the EURUSD pair remains in a downtrend, with the price staying below a falling trend line on the 4-hour chart. Downside targets have been identified, while resistance levels have also been highlighted for potential retracements. The completion of the downtrend would require a significant break above the trend line resistance.
February 13, 2024 at 1:50 pm #1543
Lesson
It is generally safer to trade in anticipation of how a market will trade ahead of a data release than holding a position into the data.
This is my philosophy and you can see why after the surprise CPI print.
US 20-year 4.28% – note JP’s past posts of 4.20% being sort of usd pivot.
———————
The best way to trade is holding a position and let it rip into the data… it’s like getting on the big kahuna to the shore line… This ain’t just talk I do this in real life…
sometimes you guys sound so scared that i read your posts and then I get scared too!!!
EURGBP firmer => weaker GBPUSD => firmer EURUSD
The GBP’s reaction in GBP (weaker) to a miss in UK CPI underscores an ultra-sensitivity to any data that shifts expectations of rate cuts.
Look at this EURGBP chart where demand for the cross is one reason why EURUSD has taken on a bid.
EURGBO 15-minute chart’
EURGBP => weaker GBPUSD => former EURUSD
The GBP’s reaction in GBP (weaker) to a miss in UK CPI underscores an ultra-sensitivity to any data that shifts expectations of rate cuts.
Look at this EURGBP chart where demand for the cross is one reason why EURUSD has taken on a bid.
I call this “Using crosses to help trade spot fx“”
EURGBO 15-minute chart’
Not tradable on the basis of 1- timing and or 2- Frequency. There’s nothing saying it HAS TO BE 3 cuts of 25 bps. It could come as a combination of…
Time for the financial press and those calling for financial armagedon to tap the breaks and give yesterdays CPI some perspective. The YOY number actually dropped sowing signs of annual improvement. The MOM numbers missed expectations by 0.1 otherwise known as a rounding error OR like previously mentioned maybe expectations were just too low…..
This number alone is not enough to send equities into a tailspin or the USD to the moon. IMO I see it as a range trade 1.0650-1.0750 until next NFP with some bias towards relative weakness in the CHF and JPY….
FED’s policy mistake
according to mohamed
–
“june and three cuts is much more realistic BUT
IF the FED delays much longer than that AND doesn’t come through with three cuts … then THAT will be the policy mistake” – Feb 14, 2024 Mohamed El-Erian
So here I have a Qtn: is mohamed’s fed mistake idea tradeable ?
animal spirit wants to know
TIA !
catching up on some pundits
–
Hot CPI data was a ‘wake-up call’ to people who got carried away, says Mohamed El-Erian here mohamed informs cnbc’s joe that “the problem is the marketplace”
everything and everyone is a “problem” according to the president of Queen’s College. what does he predict as remedy ? see the 5:15min +
DLRx 104.73 / 10-yr 4.3030
–
things appear somewhat settled this morn.
except Japanese suits who whine and complain about things ‘rapid” LoL
come ….. intervene yayayaya
some players – the revolutionary pioneer types – now pricing june fed cut
couple of ecb gumflappers still on deck
16:00 – barr yaks
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What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Why is Risk Management Important in Trading?
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
What are Some Common Risk Management Strategies?
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
How to Implement Risk Management in your Trading Plan
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
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