may vs will
–
* Germany’s economy has been struggling and the latest data has provided little hope for improvement.
* Economists say the worst may soon be over, but are still not hopeful about economic growth in 2024 and suggest the country may enter a technical recession this year.
* Headwinds include a slowdown of global trade, higher energy prices, and national and international political uncertainty.
Germany’s economy is on shaky ground and glimmers of hope are few and far between
low cost, plentiful and accessible energy is essential for a humming economy and a comfortably satisfying standard of living
Holidays update
Closed Monday
Japan, China, Hong Kong and Singapore
Closed Tuesday
Hong Kong, China
Closed all week
China
Monday Feb 19
US Presidents Day holiday
The day after the Super Bowl is not a holiday but..
An estimated 16 million Americans are expected to call out sick Monday after their football festivities, according to a survey from a human resources firm…CBS6
The question people should be asking re Biden is not whether he runs in the next election but if he’ll last thru this term… Still 11 months to go til Jan 20 next year….
Re JPY- The challenge to trading short JPY positions is the BOJ is holding aces (duh, right?). One comment on shift in policy and the elevator takes the express route down. As soon as they view things a bit too far too fast, they play a card… Game of chicken in other words… I don’t have a good answer for this one other than trade the trend but only with short term trades. Points get left on the table but you sleep better at night….
more bells
–
Biden Has More Than an Age Problem. Voters Don’t See Him as Presidential.
Many voters view Biden as failing to fully embody the office of the presidency despite his legislative achievements—in part because he hasn’t created a strong emotional bond with them. WSJ, Aaron Zitner – February 10
for whom the bell tolls
srce NYPost:
–
Whopping 86% of voters feel Biden is too old to finish another term: poll
By Ryan King February 11, 2024
Jill Biden defends Joe, suggests special counsel tried to ‘score political points’ using son’s death: ‘How the hell dare he?’
By propping up Biden, Dems are committing elder abuse — and abusing the nation
How first lady Jill Biden and staff ‘protect’ Joe from White House press corps as concerns grow over his mental capacity
Rachel Maddow suggests Joe Biden isn’t too old to be president because ‘he rides a bike’
Jill Biden and Dems committed elder abuse on Joe — now they must force him to step aside – Post Editorial Board February 8
USDJPY Day ahead :
Resistances at : 149.350, 149.600, 150.050 and the target at 152.650
Supports at : 148.950, 148.600 and 147.600
Yen is on the losing streak , as you would expect. It is very bullish on both – Daily and Weekly chart. If you have really traded Yen, you know that it can have some crazy drops , just to come back up with the vengeance.
Buying it at the current rate is a bit problematic, as any reasonable and useful stop would be at a minimum 30 pips away . Best scenario would be to see some retracement over night , and to be able to pick it up around the steep trend line at 148.600. But…it is up to you and your style….I said at least three million times in past the famous sentence : FFS, I should have bought it 😀
GBPUSD Day ahead :
Supports at : 1.26250, 1.26100, 1.25700 and 1.25150
Resistances at : 1.26450 , 1.27700, 1.27850 and 1.28300
As you can see from the chart, the Demon spends days in some sideways to nowhere , just to get wild once in a while.
My best strategy would be to play it like a range, taking into account that there is no fixed-visible range. Cable can hit extremes on both sides, just to come back where it was…more or less.
An idea is to Short it at 1.26450 for a run at 1.26100 ( conservative approach ) , or even 1.25700 ( adventurer level 😀
I have added some Fibo retracements for the fans of it, and for all of us to have some perspective.
EURUSD Day ahead
Resistances : 1.07950 and 1.08350/400
Supports : 1.07800 , 1.07700 and 1.07200
Judging by the current pattern, we should see the attack at the supports tomorrow, but expect as always for Europe to do some buying early euro morning…if they break through 1.07950 we should see at least 1.08200 ( depending on how they spent their weekends…)
Always check the Economic Calendar, to be sure you are not engaging when you shouldn’t.
THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local) – Economic Calendar
US consumer prices on Tuesday lead the week’s calendar, expected to remain steady on the month for the core but to slow on the year both overall and for the core. India’s CPI on Monday is expected to cool.
Tuesday will open with UK average hourly earnings (part of the labour market report) where noticeable cooling is expected. UK’s CPI will follow on Wednesday where the headline annual rate is expected to climb 2 tenths to 4.2 percent.
The first estimate for UK fourth-quarter GDP will be a Thursday highlight and is expected to come in unchanged on the quarter but rise 0.4 percent on the year. UK retail sales for the month of January will be posted on Friday and are expected to rebound from a weak November. Sizable contraction is expected for Eurozone industrial production on Wednesday.
US retail sales and industrial production are both on Thursday and both are expected to be flat (all data for January). On Friday, US consumer sentiment for February is expected to edge further higher after surging in January.
Econoday
US core CPI Y/Y chart from our Economic Calendar.- classic double top
Click on any indicator and a chart will open up.
Jay / re Next Week
CPI and after … will make you a believer eh ?
–
these are some animal spirits (posted earlier)
for your thermometer:
“Boy, Markets Do Not Want To Sober Up When They Read The News”
As long as we get January March May June(?), or even second-half 2024 *deep* rate cuts from the Fed, markets will remain drunk
Biden Admin Is “All Gas, No Brakes” On Economic Reflation; Nomura Warns “Running It Hot” Into Election Wrecks Powell’s Plan
…beware of “animal spirits 2.0″…and the ides of March.
Week ahead
Key focus to start, US CPI on Tuesday
Suggests a limit on the USD upside ahead of it
New ball game after the release.
See our Economic Calendar
Week ahead
Key focus to start, US CPI on Tuesday
Suggests a limit on the USD upside ahead of it
New ball game after the release.
See our Economic Calendar
Moody’s lowers Israeli credit rating, downgrades outlook from ‘stable’ to ‘negative’ – ToI
– warns ‘public finances are deteriorating,’ predicts ‘materially higher’ debt burden amid war in Gaza; says lowered outlook due to ‘risk of escalation’ with Hezbollah
Finance Minister Smotrich says Moody’s downgrade of Israel’s rating unreasonable, politicized – ToI
– says “the Israeli economy is strong by all measures.”
EU countries agree on new debt rules after Franco-German quarrel
Negotiators from the European Parliament and European Union member states have agreed on reforms to the bloc’s debt rules after long negotiations.
Belgian Finance Minister Vincent Van Peteghem said that the new rules “will safeguard balanced and sustainable public finances, strengthen the focus on structural reforms, and foster investments, growth and job creation throughout the EU.”
OnlineBroker.Fr is the best resource for French language information on the best online trading platforms and crypto exchanges in France.
You may find this useful
What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Why is Risk Management Important in Trading?
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
What are Some Common Risk Management Strategies?
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
How to Implement Risk Management in your Trading Plan
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
© 2024 Global View