JP (1:13) –
Resting purchase Aud/Usd at 6594.
Resting purchase Usd/Jpy 146.24
Of interesting note: “All economic models are wrong, but some are useful,” Huw Pill concluded in a letter to lawmakers last June that laid out the limitations of prediction methods. “We should really be thinking of economic forecasts in terms of probability distributions,” said Stephen Millard, deputy director of Britain’s National Institute of Economic and Social Research, who spent more than 26 years at the BoE.
USDJPY DAILY CHART
As noted last week, the break of 147.61 exposed 145.90 as the next target.
Another test just below 146.50 suggests this will be the pivotal level determining whether there will be a run at 145.90 and then 145.
As also noted (when USDJPY traded below 148), expect a limited USDJPY upside ahead of the March 18-19 BoJ meeting where there is a risk of the neverending story of a rate hike to bring Japan out of negative interest rates finally reaching a conclusion.
Range so far today 146.48-147.13
USDJPY Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Potential Scenarios
USDJPY’s downward momentum from 150.88 has extended to a low of 146.47, currently testing the support level at 145.89.
The initial resistance level is located at 147.25. As long as this resistance level remains intact, the downside move is likely to persist. A potential breakdown below the 145.89 support level might trigger further downside movement towards the 144.30 area.
On the upside, a decisive breakout above the resistance level at 147.25 would suggest that consolidation for the downtrend is underway, with the pair potentially encountering resistance around the 148.00 region.
(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.
So Japan isn’t in recession after all. Revisions now put economic growth at +0.1% q/q in the fourth quarter, instead of -0.1%, so nullifying all the media lamentation about Japan’s contraction.
THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)
The US CPI on Tuesday is expected to remain overheated, at a 0.4 percent monthly rise overall and a 0.3 percent gain for the ex-food ex-energy core that would leave the latter at an expected 3.7 percent and nearly double the Federal Reserve’s target. Shelter costs will likely still be elevated, while other services like insurance premiums are seeing new hikes.
India’s CPI on Tuesday is expected to edge only 1 tenth lower to 5.0 percent with UK wages, also on Tuesday, likewise not expected to cool very much to 5.7 percent. Yet the UK’s monthly GDP report on Wednesday is expected to offer good news with a 0.2 percent gain.
US retail sales on Thursday are seen rebounding but not US industrial production on Friday where another flat result is the consensus. US consumer sentiment for early March will wind up the week’s calendar with what is expected to be a small gain on top of recent large gains.
Econoday
AUDUSD Daily Chart – Focus on the breakout level
Breakout above .6624 and then retreat towards it. A large wick at the high suggests the possibility of a pause but only if AUDUSD moves back below.6624.
Only below .6595 would put it back into its old range, making .6595-6624 a support zone.
The 4-hour chart shows .6613 as a local support.
Week Ahead from Newsquawk.com
Next week, highlights include US CPI and Retail Sales data, GDP and the Labour Market report from the UK, while the 1st tally of the Japan Rengo wage talks will be key, as will China inflation data
Week Ahead 11-15th March
Sat: Chinese Inflation (Feb)
Sun: Japanese GDP (R)
Mon: Eurogroup Meeting; Norwegian CPI (Feb)
Tue: NBH Announcement, EIA STEO, OPEC OMR; UK Labour Market Report (Jan/Feb), US CPI (Feb)
Wed: UK GDP (Jan)
Thu: IEA OMR; Swedish CPIF (Feb), US PPI (Feb) and Retail Sales (Feb)
Fri: Quad Witching, PBoC MLF, Japan’s Rengo (labour union) 1st Pay Tally; US UoM Prelim (Mar),
See our Economic Calendar
GBPUSD – Week ahead
Resistances ( Targets ) at 1.30850 and previous high at 1.31450
Supports 1.28200 and 1.27350
It is very difficult to predict exact moves week ahead, but let me try :
Pull back is a Must, but depending is it going to continue a bit more up on Monday and then pull back, or first Pull back and then Up will decide its fate in the near future.
For the Cable to continue surging , pull backs are the way – any extended Rally Up might end up in tears ( like an Irish story )
Weekly Chart
EURUSD DAILY CHART – 1.10 OR BUST?
I remember when a 1% or more daily range in a currency was the norm. Now it seems to be reported as a big event.
As you can see on this daily chart around 1.10 is the current target but a weak EUR showing on its crosses suggests further overall USD weakness might be needed to test it.
On the downside, no key nearby support, and as the chart shows 1.0897 needs to hold to keep a bid.
Forex Forum Ad Hoc Glossary
What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Why is Risk Management Important in Trading?
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
What are Some Common Risk Management Strategies?
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
How to Implement Risk Management in your Trading Plan
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
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