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BOBBY POSTED THIS EURUSD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK IN OUR BLOG AND IT SPEAKS FOR ITSELF. WORTH A READ
DLRx 103.95
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with nothing of substance on the econ calendar todahy players have room to argue things out (i.e. consolidate)
the “better qualified” individuals are suggesting ambivalent things about alleged rate cuts with a bottom line attempt at maybe not quiet three cuts as “feasable” this year.
with 10-yr yield nearing 4.5% dlrx is rather subdued in its response.
In his friday yak jerome alluded to details about labor he & gang are watching such as turfing notices and surveys around jobs intentions – two rays of good hope from the FED’s point of view. The CPI numbers that are expected this week appear to be another ray of hope for the FED as “being on the right track” that earlier numbers were but a “bump”
Degenerate traders on the other hand would likely savage rates and ccies on upside surprise releases.
Since the relationship with currencies to US stocks matters, just a note stocks are firmly in a pull back cycle and I don’t see any way that Dow trades above 392 today unless something dramatic happens. Yields up. Dow futures holding 39170 so it appears the shorter term cycle is the market wanting to hold stocks against the more significant sell cycle in the index. DXY is holding the offer overall so it would take something of weight to move it over 104.60 today in my opinion.
THIS ARTICLE IN OUR BLOG EXPLAINS WHAT IT MEANS WHEN A CURRENCY FEELS BID IN AN OFFERED MARKET
What Does it Mean When a Currency Feels “Bid in an Offered Market?”
eurusd 4 hour chart – glass half full or empty of looking bid in an offered market?
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Given the strong US jobs report and rise in US yieldsw today it would seem more logical for EURUSD to be trading 1.07xx rather than 1.08xx’
It is Monday though and will see if this is a matter of looking bid in an offered market. A break of 1.0791 would be needed to confirm this is the case.
Key levels are on this chart.
USDJPY 1 HOUR – BID BUT WARY OF INTERVENTION
All that matters in USDJPY is the 151.97 (suggests 152) and what night trigger intervention. It certainly isn’t a disorderly market in current conditions that would trigger intervention so it would have to be a level that is considered the point of pain.
Rising US bond yields (4.45% 10-year yield so far capping it) would normally see USDJPY if it wasn’t for the intervention threat.
Looking at this chart, there are layers of support all the way to 150.80 under normal conditions.
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee (Reuters)
European markets are gearing up for a steady start to the week with the ECB widely expected to stand pat on rates but possibly hint at when rate cuts would likely begin, while investors will parse through the latest reading of the U.S. inflation report.
XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART – EXHAUSTION HIGH?
I won’t even dare to suggest a high is in although the spike t0 2354 suggests those still short threw in the towel.
With the key support not until 2302, look for 2330 to be a potential support that needs to hold to keep a bid targeting the high.
For those trading XAUUSD intra-day, revert to shorter time frames.
Friday attempt at infecting peasants
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Bowman says inflation still too high to justify Fed rate cuts
“we are still not yet at the point”
Barkin said Fed would be ‘smart’ to take its time to cut rates due to persistent inflation
“No one wants inflation to reemerge,” and something about FEDs having “time for the clouds to clear before beginning the process of toggling rates down,” (the clouds barkin refers to is “the strong labor market”
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In my op in a relevant commentary to the two headlines above and jerome’s early Friday chitchat,
Tyler has posted an interesting piece and a reminder on his website on Sunday: “People Are Not Inflation Idiots” by Jeffrey A. Tucker
People Are Not Inflation Idiots
“There’s something about employed intellectuals. When they are trashing popular wisdom and perceptions of regular people …
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What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Why is Risk Management Important in Trading?
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
What are Some Common Risk Management Strategies?
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
How to Implement Risk Management in your Trading Plan
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
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