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USDJPY ONE HOUR CHART
Unless the BoJ is willing to back up its interventions with a hike in interest rates or commit to large-scale USDJOY selling, the best we can say at this stage is that it has, at least for now, restored a two0way risk in what had become a one-way market
What hasn’t changed is that 155 remains pivotal and only firmly below it would suggest the BoJ has won this battle. If not, then it is just a shot across the market’s bow.
EURUSD 4H
Supports 1.07150 & 1.07000
Resistance at 1.07350
As long as supports hold, we are targeting 1.08000 and subsequently 1.08350
Pattern in creation suggest move Up.
But can it be opposite…of course…never say never – in which case we would hit 1.06350
However, pigs can’t fly, yet….maybe if they produce AI pigs one day…who knows
Covered calls are bid for stocks as well as some other facets, but some internals are not solid so it appears to me that the bid in stocks in moderately on the apprehensive side but bid so far. Dxy withstood the overnight selling but has to clear 106.05 and hold to accelerate in my view, otherwise the 105 area might be seen. I’m looking to sell GbpUsd around 2600 but am biased long overall until the tune changes. Staying on the bid in AudUsd and crosses on pullbacks and believe it might temporarily stall around 6600 in both spot and futures.
XAUUSD 4 HIYR CHART – ON THE SIDELINES?
SO FAR, THERE W]HAS BEEN LITTLE REACTION TO THE LATEST PROPOSAL FOR AN ISRAEL-HAMAS CEASEFIRE.
WHAT CAUGHT MY ATTENTION IN THIS CHART IS THAT MOVES OUTSIDE OF 2300-2400 HAVE LACKED FOLLOW-THROUGH.
WITHIN THIS RANGE EXPECT 2350 TO BE PIVOTAL IN SETTING THE BIAS, ESPECIALLY FOR DAY TRADERS..cURRENT TIGHT RANGE IS 2319-52
Geoploitical news
RIYADH, April 29 (Reuters) – U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday urged Hamas to swiftly accept an Israeli proposal for a truce in the Gaza war and the release of Israeli hostages held by the Palestinian militant group.
Hamas negotiators were expected to meet Qatari and Egyptian mediators in Cairo on Monday to deliver a response to the phased truce proposal which Israel presented at the weekend.
“Hamas has before it a proposal that is extraordinarily, extraordinarily generous on the part of Israel,” Blinken said at a meeting of the World Economic Forum in the Saudi capital Riyadh..truncated
DLRx 105.70 / 10-YR 4.642%
–
I gage that player collective is expecting and therefore pricing in what is generally termed “jerome’s FED’s hawkish pivot” on wednesday. odds calcs suggest around 25bps by december.
10-yr… 2yr … probably on “watch” radar.
europe, incidentaly, is on holiday on Wednesday (the so what: likely thin participation)
Bottom Line
I am biased but this time around I am not enthusiastic about much upside potential for the DLR.
Maybe friday’s incoming US jobs data will stirr the juices pot some
SCROLL BELOW AND YOU WILL SEE MY REFERENCE TO THE “MONDAY EFFECT.’
SEE WHAT IT MEANS IN THE FOLLOWING
EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – OUT OF STEAM?
With EURJPY still above key levels but losing its strong momentum it remains to be seen whether EURUSD can keep its bid ahead of key events this week.
What caught my attention looking at this chart is the failure to seriously take out the 1.0750 level (power of 60).
Mark down today’s high for if it holds, pressure could re-emerge on the downside as the week progresses (“Monday Effect”).
THIS IS ONE OF MY FAVORITE TIPS AND WORTH REPEATING AS IT IS A TIMELY ONE NOW THAT THE BOJ HAS FINALLY INTERVENED IN USDJPY.
‘
The forex market is on a constant search for the path of least resistance, whether it be on the up or downside for a currency. A trend starts like the gently flowing stream, picks up momentum as with the cascading water, and then reaches a climax when it hits the waterfall.
Jay Meisler’s Common Sense Trading: How You Can Identify the Path of Least Resistance?
Jay Meisler’s Common Sense Trading: How You Can Identify the Path of Least Resistance?
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What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Why is Risk Management Important in Trading?
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
What are Some Common Risk Management Strategies?
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
How to Implement Risk Management in your Trading Plan
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
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