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GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – 1.25-1.26?
While the earlier fall-off-a-cliff move was unnerving, GBPUSD remains within 1.25-1.26, suggesting the 1.2550 level will dictate its intra-day bias.
As noted earlier, 1.2500-02 is a key level as there is qa voud below it.
On the upside, 1.2570-94 guards the key 1.2634 level.
URUSD 4 HOUR CHART -CUP HALF EMPTY OR HALF FILLED
Depending on how you look at it EURUSD has shown some resilience but would need to take out 1.0813, which is in its 2nd week of not being tested, and stay above 1.08 to suggest more scope on the upside.
Support is clear at 1.0760 with supp[ort as long as it holds.’
There is a lower top at 1.0807 from yesterday but only a break of 1.0760 would turn this into a shift in directional risk.
Summary
Euro/dollar down 2.4% this year, off 5-month lows
Euro weakness limited as economic divergence with US ebbs
Parity still a possibility further out, analysts say
LONDON/MILAN, May 14 (Reuters) – The euro has resisted falling to parity with the dollar for now, thanks to a rosier economic backdrop, to the relief of European Central Bank policymakers who could be struggling to detach themselves from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
Euro keeps dollar ‘gorilla’ from scuppe ring ECB rate outlook
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Macro markets have basically frozen ahead of this week’s big U.S. inflation releases, with sideshow entertainment provided by a fresh burst in activity in so-called ‘meme stocks’ while earnings updates and deals sagas dominated overseas.
Biden raises tariffs on $18 billion of Chinese imports: EVs, solar panels, batteries and more
* President Joe Biden plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicle imports, a 50% tariff on Chinese solar cells and a 25% tariff on certain Chinese steel and aluminum imports.
*The announcement comes after weeks of White House officials warning Beijing to amend certain trade practices that the Washington argues have weakened global supply chains.
* Administration officials predicted that these tariffs will have “no inflationary impact.”
Biden administration has so far maintained that these tariffs will have “no inflationary impact” because they are not “across the board”
XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART – RETRACEMENT OVER?
As I pointed out yesterday, 2328 = 61.8% of 2303-2328.
The low at 2332 paused above this level so for now treat the move down as a retracement,
To confirm, XAUUSD would need to move back above the 2350 level indicated on this chart (another example of the Power of 50).
I just added this to the USDJPY post below:
POWER OF 50: Notice that yesterday’s low was just below 155.50 and today’s high stalled just above 156.50 (156.54)_, which is another example of the power of the “60” level.
EURUSD 4H
May 13, 2024 at 5:10 pm
Support 1.07750 & 1.07500
For the continuation of Uptrend, I would like to see support at 1.07750 holding it’s ground (smaller time frames indicate a test of it )
So that was right on spot…what now?? Let’s see if 1.07900 will give a way for attack at 1.08500.
Small time frames indicates Buy mode…watch for Data today
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – WHO’S AFRAID OF THE BOJ>
USDJPY, which stayed bid yesterday even as the USD was softer elsewhere, has extended its high through 156.27 resistance.
Is this the key level that might trigger intervention;
It could be but more likely it would put traders on high alert if it managed to make a move toward 158.
Using this chart, it would need to stay above 156.27 to keep a strong bid but would likely find support below the market unless 155.49 is taken out (assuming no intervention).
POWER OF 50: Notice that yesterday’s low was just below 155.50 and today’s high stalled just above 156.50 (156.54)_, which is another example of the power of the “60” level.
The only news I saw other than the UK jobs report, which was not the catalyst for the GBPUSD nosedive, was this that came out within the past hour:
BOE Chief Economic Pill says there is still some work to do on the persistence of inflation; not unreasonable;e to believe that over the summer the BOE will see enough confidence to consider rate cuts….Source; Newsquawk.com
If this was the catalyst for the (over?) reaction down in GBPUSD, it is yet another indication of how hyper-sensitive markets are to any news that might impact interest rate cut expectations.
GBPUSD 1-HOUR CHART – LOOKS LIKE IY FELL OFF A CLIFF?
I am using this chart as it looks like GBPUSD fell off a cliff. This may reflect a thin market that has been buying GBPUSD this week.
Whatever the case, the key level on the downside, as pointed out yesterday, is 1.2502 as there is a void of key levels below it. So far, GBPUSD has paused above it.
On the upside, back above 1.2546, at a minimum, would be needed to ease the risk on the downside.
This is the key data day everyone has been focused on, US CPI and Retail Sales. Be prepared with this
A Detailed Preview….
As all global markets spin their wheels waiting for key US data on Wednesday it pays to take a deep breath and. see..
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What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Why is Risk Management Important in Trading?
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
What are Some Common Risk Management Strategies?
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
How to Implement Risk Management in your Trading Plan
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
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