IF I were the FED chair ( hihihi)
–
you would do well (for your own welfare and wellbeing) to remember that the FED’s first job is to protect the Banking System befoare the peasant population. In fact IF the peasants in aggregate bshould somehow threaten the Banking System, the gloves are to be taken off.
If I was in Fed Chair Powell’s shoes, I would pat myself on the back and just look to confirm what economists are forecasting, which is for 75bps of rate cuts this year.
For consideration regarding real economics according to the respected source Resume Builder:
1. 4 out of 10 jobs posted in the US in 2024 were “fake.”
2. 3 out of every 10 jobs in 2024 had roles that were not “real.”
This, added to the BLS not reporting almost 1 million job losses in the last report, and the continued high inflation in real terms not “how its doing the last two years” is not the rosy picture some are painting.
Result:
1. Buy military defense, gold, energy dividend, AI, and staple stocks.
2. Bonds/notes.
3. Less performance related currencies.
4. Coffee and Booze related commodities.
The UsdJpy 146.25 magnet I’ve been mentioning the last two days is quite active with some expected over/under. Last hurrah is just above for a bit of time. Current problems with it:
1. Major bank executives have voiced no confidence in US government data from this administration in light of the hidden in plain sight BLS fraud.
2. Stocks are likely to remain in trouble overall regardless of the FED being forced to lower rates coming up in part to the fraudulent data and the fact that almost 1 million job losses went unreported with more to come showing an unstable economy.
3. The short side of UsdJpy is dicey with the evaporation of confidence due to the uncertainty and stronger in stocks now than before.
Rates will be reduced but now the impact is likely reduced. So USD is a matter of the extent pricing in has been achieved.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Dhara Ranasinghe.
If the pressure on global markets from the tumult at the start of the month has abated, nobody told the dollar.
EURGBP DAILY CHART – TUG-Of-WAR
Break of .8500 makes this the pivotal BIAS SETTING level with little on charts until .8382-8407
This has created a tUg-of-war between EURUSD )trading below 1.1150) and GBPUSD (extending high with the 2023 peak at 1.3141 looming above).
Note 100 (blue) and 200 (yellow) mVas
GBPUSD Daily
Supports : 1.31050, 1.30750 & 1.30350
Resistances : 1.31300, 1.32050 & 1.36200
1.32050 being a top of the channel might prove hard to crack – at least on the first attempt.
However, Cable has a tendency to break every and any level, so wouldn’t surprise me if we see it above – if not this, then next week.
EURUSD
Daily chart
4h chart
Supports : 1.11300, 1.11100 & 1.10950
Resistances : 1.11450, 1.11550 & 1.11850
Time wise – we should be seeing some kind of a correction at least.
As long as 1.10950 holds, we are in Up trend.
Pattern wise – angle of climb is suggesting : More to come
Ultimate Target – 1.13300
Forex Forum Ad Hoc Glossary
What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Why is Risk Management Important in Trading?
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
What are Some Common Risk Management Strategies?
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
How to Implement Risk Management in your Trading Plan
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
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