USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART
USDJPY spikes higher following a tick up in us yields (only a little) following the Fed’s inflation expectations survey.
If you scroll through THE FORUM PAGES YOU WILL SEE MY WEEKEND UPDATE WHERE I NOTED IT MAY DEPEND ON WHAT CHARTS THE BOJ is looking at.
ON THE 4 HOUR, 156.28 IS A LEVEL IT WOULD NOT WANT TO SEE TRADE.
THE IMPORTANT LEVEL IS 157.98 ON ALL TIME FRAMES.
Note, EURJPY came within a few pips of the key 168.65 resistance cited earlier (scroll down the forum)
copy paste from NY FED
how bad is jerome the inflation fighter screwed ?
–
PRESS RELEASE
Consumers Expect Higher Short-Term Inflation and Home Price Growth
May 13, 2024
NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the April 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations increased at the short-term and longer-term horizons, while decreasing at the medium-term horizon. Home price growth expectations reached the highest level since July 2022. Spending growth expectations also increased. The average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separation declined, as did the perceived likelihood of finding a job in the event of a job loss.
The main findings from the April 2024 Survey are:
Inflation
Median inflation expectations increased to 3.3% from 3.0% at the one-year horizon (remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 3.5%), decreased to 2.8% from 2.9% at the three-year horizon, and increased to 2.8% from 2.6% at the five-year horizon. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at the one-year horizon and increased at the three-year and five-year horizons.
Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—increased at the one- and five-year horizons and declined at the three-year horizon.
Median home price growth expectations increased to 3.3% after remaining unchanged at 3.0% for seven consecutive months. This is the highest reading of the series since July 2022. The increase was most pronounced for respondents with a high school degree or less.
Year-ahead commodity price expectations rose across the board in April, increasing by 0.3 percentage point for gas to 4.8%, 0.2 percent point for food to 5.3%, 0.6 percent point for the cost of medical care to 8.7%, 2.5 percentage points for the cost of college education to 9.0% and 0.4 percentage point for rent to 9.1%.
Players are, imo, not going to go “all hog” with bets. It looks like market is expecting “sticky” inflation. And the expectation for the pace of inflation is that IT will slow down some. So that is where the core bet is.
lets how market sees and prices things at top of hour with release of
11:00 – NY fed’s 1-yr inflation expectation (vs 3% last)
AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – TESTING RESISTANCE
As I noted yesterday (scroll to prior pages for a broader view) .6600 would likely set its tone.
This has seen a test of .6624 resistance, its significance is that it guards the key .6648 level as seen on this chart.
Supports and trendline are below .6600, so keep the focus on this level to set the trading bias.
I was just asked to elaborate on the Path of Least resistance. Here is an article that keeps proving to be a timely one.
The forex market is on a constant search for the path of least resistance, whether it be on the up or downside for a currency. A trend starts like the gently flowing stream, picks up momentum as with the cascading water, and then reaches a climax when it hits the waterfall.
Jay Meisler’s Common Sense Trading: How You Can Identify the Path of Least Resistance?
Jay Meisler’s Common Sense Trading: How You Can Identify the Path of Least Resistance?
EURJPY 4 HOUR CHART – PROBING THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE
With the BoJ intervention threat looming, the market is following the path of least resistance by selling JPY on its crosses.
This has seen EURUSD creep higher while USDJPY is barely moving.
The chart shows the key resistance levels (168.65 and 171.58) while support starts at the up trendline.
I was sent this macro view by a seasoned trader
Unless you have to do something there’s nothing that would draw someone into taking on any risk in fx right now. Maybe stays this way til after US elections with no one willing to commit to usd strength or weakness…..
JPY risk probably not worth it from both sides.
The EUR or other dollar plays are worse than data dependent because its more what market wants then what it gets. Movement overall has been trendless with micro moves the equivalent of static. Safe plays like chf weakness are still on the table but the initial leg is played out.
MARKETS REMAIN HYPER-SENSTIVE TO ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES SO HOLD ON TO YOUR SEAT BELTS NEXT WEEK WHEN US RETAIL SALES AND CPI WILL BE REPORTED… SEE DETAILED PREVIEWS IN THIS VERY POPULAR WEEK-AHEAD REPORT
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Wall Street and world stock markets have cleared the first-quarter corporate earnings season comfortably enough to be back stalking record highs, but macro markets don’t want to budge much further until they see this week’s U.S. inflation update.
Wednesday’s U.S. consumer price report sucks much of the oxygen out of the early part of the markets week – critical as it is in revealing whether disinflation has resumed after a sticky Q1, and at least enough to keep Federal Reserve easing expectations this year in the frame.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Wall Street and world stock markets have cleared the first-quarter corporate earnings season comfortably enough to be back stalking record highs, but macro markets don’t want to budge much further until they see this week’s U.S. inflation update.
Wednesday’s U.S. consumer price report sucks much of the oxygen out of the early part of the markets week – critical as it is in revealing whether disinflation has resumed after a sticky Q1, and at least enough to keep Federal Reserve easing expectations this year in the frame.
OnlineBroker.Fr is the best resource for French language information on the best online trading platforms and crypto exchanges in France.
You may find this useful
What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
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Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
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Not Understanding Risk:
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Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Why is Risk Management Important in Trading?
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How to Implement Risk Management in your Trading Plan
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
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Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
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