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i remember the 2016 election where I believe the betting odds were 85/15 on Clinton beating Trump.
As polls came later election night it became clear that Trump was going to win.
This was not clear in 2016 due to mail in ballots and a race decided by a handful of vote in a few key states.
Now in 2024, watch the early results from Georgia (polls close at 7 PM and North Carolina at 7:30) but barring a surprise, the outcome will not be called on election night. I believe both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania don’t start counting mail in votes until the polls close so the earliest may be sometime on Wednesday.
‘
Whatever the outcome, markets will be extremely skittish and jumping around on any hint of a trend in the voting.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
With even the Federal Reserve meeting in the shade of Tuesday’s election, markets have little to go other than last-minute opinion polls that tilt the tight White House race either way, and Iowa did just that over the weekend.
With Tokyo markets closed on Monday and trading thinner as a result, the dollar recoiled sharply from Friday’s close after a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll on Saturday put Democrat Kamala Harris three points clear of Republican Donald Trump in a state that Trump easily won in 2016 and 2020.
Morning Bid: Outliers from Iowa and payrolls sow confusion
AUDUSD 1 HOUR – MIND THE GAP
Brief break of .6615 not following through (.6646-61 above it)
Opening week gap to ,6559
Amazing Trader Directional Indicator (2 blue lines) shows potential for a top but only a break of .6585 would confirm and put the gap in play.
Price action more likely the result of pre-US election position adjustments as it is hard to see big bets given the uncertain outcome.
USDJPY 1 HOUR – MIND THE GAP
Key support so far untouched at 151.44 vs. 151.59 low. Below 151.44 would shift focus to 150.
Opening week gap to 152.94
Back above 152.48 would put the gap in play, caps the upside while below it
152 will likely set the pre-election tone
Price action more likely the result of pre-US election position adjustments as it is hard to see big bets given the uncertain outcome.
EURUSD 1 HOUR – MIND THE GAP
Double top so far at 1.0906 (1.09 likely to set the pre-election tone)
Opening week gap to 1.0833
Back below 1.0869 would put the gap in play, provides support while above it
Above 1.0906 would expose 1.0917-53
Price action more likely the result of pre-US election position adjustments as it is hard to see big bets given the uncertain outcome.
GBPUSD 1 HOUR – MIND THE GAP
Failure so far to regain 1.30
Opening week gap to 1.2919
Back below 1.2948 would put the gap in play, above it keeps a bid
Above 1.30 would expose the 1.3043 high.
Price action more likely the result of pre-US election position adjustments as it is hard to see big bets given the uncertain outcome.
XAUUSD 4h – Gold
Supports : 2730.00 , 2710.00 & 2695.00
Resistances : 2745.00 , 2760.00 & 2785.00
As long as below 2760.00 it will continue this so far correctional move Down.
Below 2710.00 this correction can escalate and go as low as 2595.00 and still be a Correction.
This coming week is filled with excitements coming from US Presidential election & FOMC decision , so everything is possible, but Pattern/ Time wise Gold is in for up to 2 weeks of consolidation.
Nov 4 (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.
Global markets will be overwhelmingly dominated by the U.S. presidential election and interest rate decision later this week, so Monday’s activity may be driven by position adjustments as investors take in the latest polls, newsflow, earnings and economic indicators.
Morning Bid: Navigating US election, Fed, bond market tumult
THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)
This week, markets will focus on the US presidential election on Tuesday and the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday and Thursday. The election is expected to be a tight race, with possible delays in final results due to absentee and provisional ballots. Meanwhile, the FOMC is likely to announce a 25-basis point rate cut, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell expected to emphasize the central bank’s independence and data-driven approach.
October’s job report showed weak payroll growth but stable unemployment, signaling a mixed labor market. Inflation remains stubborn, especially in services, despite signs of stabilization in the Fed’s preferred PCE measure. Global economic releases include contracting manufacturing PMIs in Europe, a steady interest rate from Australia, and an anticipated 25-basis point rate cut from the Bank of England.
Together, these events will shape both market expectations and the outlook for monetary policy.
Econoday
Newquawk Week Ahead Highlights Nov 4-8
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Forex Forum & Blog
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What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Why is Risk Management Important in Trading?
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
What are Some Common Risk Management Strategies?
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
How to Implement Risk Management in your Trading Plan
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
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