USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – PATH PF LEAST RESISTANCE
With the market seemingly not ready to push the upside too hard and prompt intervention, it seems to be following the path of least resistance by selling JPY on its crosses.
Offsets may be one source of demand for currencies like the AUD, EUR and GBP.
For USDJPY, the current range is around 156.50-157.20.
A key focus this week will be on Japan CPI with some seeing the window closing on rate hikes as inflation is cookling.
Suggested reading: Jay Meisler’s Common Sense Trading: How You Can Identify the Path of Least Resistance?
GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – LAGGING?
GBPUSD break of 1.2761 so far not going far and is dependent on 1.2761+ to keep a strong bid and then 1.2725 and the trendline holding below it to keep a focus on 1.28+
If you look at GBP crosses you will see where some of the demand is coming from… in this regard, EURGBP bounce from .85 today has seen GBPUSD lag today.
EURUSD 30 MINUTE CHART – Too tight to last
EURUSD testing upside but would need to get through 1.0895 to break the current range.
As this 30 minute chart shows, it has been trading in a 9-pip range for over 2 hours, one so tight that it will not last for much longer (the intra-day range has so far been just 20 pips, 1.0860-80)
So there is nothing to get excited about the upside unless 1.0895 is decisively taken out.
Otherwise, look for 1.o850 tp continue to set its intra-day tone.
ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (Apr) – 12 month inflation 2.9% (prev 3.0%), 3-tear ahead 2.4% (prev 2.5&); growth outlook less negative and labour market seen stable.
Source; Newsquawk.com
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook
The European Central Bank publishes inflation expectation surveys on Tuesday, which along with policymaker speeches are the highlight of an otherwise quiet calendar
Thanks Bobby on your 8:38pm post, and sincere congratulations for making it that far.
As noted by BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian BelskiIn years where the S&P 500 rallies more than 8% in the first five months of the year, as it just did, the index gains more than 7% to finish the year 70% of the time. Euro should ordinarily benefit if such a percentage sticks this year. So regardless of inflation effect, rates of decline in pullbacks, interest rates, or anything else such as economic slowdown, that is something to consider. The bottom line is what is the market doing this week for most active participants.
For those who transact on bi-weekly or longer time frames the options markets, sovereign, and bank positioning matters a bit more. For those who are tuned to larger time frames then the economics matter in different ways and so you have 10,000 economists saying the age old phrase “on the other hand.”
EURUSD failed to break 1.0863
Last 1.0842
The only news I have seen
ECB’s Villeroy said that a June interest rate cut is a done deal barring a surprises
His comments are not a surprise – the focus should be on what comes next in terms of rate cuts
If you are trading today it is like you are trading with yourself.
USDX 4 HOUR CHART – EURUSD PROXY?
As I noted, with EURUSD representing 57.6% of the index, it often acts as a proxy for the currency.
In this chart, the highlighted red AT line being broken would need to be sustained and then confirmed by a solid EURUSD move above 1.0863 to suggest a potential shift in direction or at least a loss of upward momentum
EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – TOO TIGHT A RANGE TO LAST FOR TOO LONG’
The best I can say in this holiday-thinned session is how EURUSD ends the week is more important than how it starts.
I can also say that the current 1.0805-1.0895 range is too tight to last for too long.
Is it a coincidence that 1.085, the intra-day bias setter, is also the midpoint of the current range?
Otherwise, chart levels are clear as indicated on this chart.
‘
Let me state from the outset that the forex market is one of limits. It’s a fickle market more prone to intra-day reversals than breakouts and sustained moves.
This is why I look at the forex market as trading in episodes rather than trends.
THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)
The week’s inflation news will start with Australia on Wednesday where no meaningful improvement is expected at 3.4 percent for April. Wednesday’s consumer price data from Germany are expected to accelerate but remain with quiet looking 2 percent handles. Eurozone HICP flashes for May are also expected to look normal, at 2.5 percent overall and 2.7 percent for the narrow core. Tokyo consumer prices are expected to firm in May following a jolt lower in April on special factors.
Other Japanese data will include industrial production and retail sales, both on Friday. China’s CFLP PMIs on Friday are expected to hold steady in data for May. Monthly GDP from Canada is expected to stall in March though the first quarter as a whole is seen posting respectable growth of 2.3 percent.
Econoday
US PCE and month end on Friday could make it an active end to the week.
In the never-ending supply of Doomsday callers on the net, sooner or later one will be right…ONE…and it does happen every now and then ( like every 25 years or so) , and will give a wind in the sails of others impostors that lurk around our markets…
Problem is that overall majority of participants are ignorant (fools ) , that believe there is a conspiracy going on that prevents them from getting rich over night and pose in front of the Ferrari , with Rolex on one hand and two blondes on the other…
One of the first things that I learned early on in this byz is that positioning yourself based on the expected top or bottom most of the time runs your margin dry…
Later on, I had to force myself to ignore completely those expectations to be able to catch a good trade in opposite direction of it…that was probably even harder…
Today, as you can see I always separate my own opinion /expectation from what the charts are telling me – said it thousand times: I don’t trade my opinion ( and I have over 30 years of experience…then I might be just your average IQ guy)
You told them the truth Monedge – even they don’t like it , so……. – Jay warned me against the profanity, but you know what comes next 😀
I was allowed to post this on Marketwatch last week (which was edited) in response to a known Top/Bottom/Doom/Sky is the limit Superhero caller saying the “top” is in and the sky is about to fall in markets. They said what I posted belongs on Barings as well so I thought I would share it here as well, and so I said this …
I ran an investment firm and we had unusually good returns. Being the President I had to take a good look at common sense early on though when it was apparent what used to work no longer was. Though some are very good at it, I discovered, among other things, was that calling tops/bottoms is a recipe for an early vacation on a deserted island with no money. There is a long graveyard of top and bottom callers. Flashy but you had better be accurate. Markets are a window into a mass of humanity trying to deploy a mass of agendas.
Yet, there is a rythm to it and markets are very cyclical no matter the time frame of interest. If you are losing money you either don’t have enough time or haven’t figured some things out yet.
In our opinion at Monedge (.net), US stock markets are bid overall, yields are here for longer, the US Dollar is strong overall for now, and that is it. What is happening today is what matters.
If they sky falls you will know. Why prognosticate trying to look like the next Oracle of Wall Street? Unless you are trying to impress your boss or make conversation, it might not be pragmatic.
Hear Ye Hear Ye
jeff cox:
The Fed probably won’t be delivering any interest rate cuts this summer
* It looks increasingly unlikely that the Federal Reserve will be cutting interest rates after a batch of stronger-than-expected economic data coupled with fresh commentary from policymakers.
* Economic growth is at least stable if not on the rise, while inflation is ever-present.
* Central bankers still lack the confidence to cut and even an unspecified few say they could be open to hiking if inflation gets worse.
You have seen me post my charts with red and blue lines forming patterns. This is the Amazing Trader charting algo. Let me show you how it all began and then evolved in
OnlineBroker.Fr is the best resource for French language information on the best online trading platforms and crypto exchanges in France.
You may find this useful
What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Why is Risk Management Important in Trading?
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
What are Some Common Risk Management Strategies?
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
How to Implement Risk Management in your Trading Plan
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
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