Forex Forum
Forex Forum & Blog is the place where traders can exchange their Ideas, give Trading Tips and Discuss their Trading Ideas.
Forex Blog with Daily Updates is a growing library of everything one might need to succesfully trade.
The First Online Forex Trading Forum
GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – bearish below 1.28
When in a trend, like the downtrend in GBPUSD, I look for an AT level that would negate the latest leg.
On this chart it comes in at 1.2840.
A couple of levels to watch:
1.2750 (power of 50 level for day trading)
1.2777 (former support)
1.2800 (pivotal big figure, bearish below it)
1,2612 (major level), start of the move that peaked at 1.3044).
In my estimation the market will likely reprice Euro into the 0740’s ultimately where larger participants will add to their already long existing buy side positions. They are already lightly scaling in again, I know where the orders are. They will fill more around 0780, again around 0750-0760, and the lower zones mentioned as well and if seen.
The result should be pricing in of a relief rally as the September rate announcement nears in stocks and risk polite currencies like Euro.
CTA is off to other things for a bit. Good luck!
The S/P 500 Strategic Commodities Index is beginning to trade under its equilibrium slightly and so when it arrives around certain areas which would coincide with Gold pricing 2470 to 2480 that is a zone I expect to see some more robust buy side activity in Gold again. (Got your back JP)
JP – regarding the FED…one has to. In similar fashion to the value of the US Dollar itself. The Dollar is backed by the confidence that the market has in future economic performance. Not Gold (there is not enough store to sustain the US economy for more than 48hrs even in war time). The FED impacts markets with their views on confidence. So the FED is viewed as both cause and effect. The problem is the accounting. When I was majoring in accounting I proved to the instructor that the books could be cooked without affecting the balance sheet during finals. I got an A on the final but was flunked for disproving actuary out of spite by the instructor lol.
That is what the FED has been doing of late.
SF 2:42 – do you count the FED meddling in the fin market and the economy as a “fundamental” element ?
JP – It is simply factual they have been keeping it out of the (published) results to cause the face value appearance of inflation being lower than it really is. The reality is some commodities will remain inflated now with new levels being established in the cost of living index. Basically the books are being cooked so that it appears inflation is cooling but it really is not, only in some parameters. Some could possibly argue it is criminal and be correct. It is like the headline employment number that does not “account” for the labor participation rate. The headline figure looks great. Until the clothes come off.
There is an old saying in sales and politics: Multiply your positives and divide your negatives. They won’t know any different than what they hear if they remain uneducated. Some remain uneducated by choice.
FWIW
bullard says …
Job market needs to normalize, not deteriorate: Fmr. Fed. Pres.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/video/job-market-needs-normalize-not-143107268.html
I don’t believe this morning’s US data affected Euro much other than to not shock the buy side entrants who are larger entities. The buy side was already being entertained below 0800 by more significant participants well before the data was released.
Does that mean fundamentals do not matter in trading? To think that would be pretty arrogant and pretty narrow. There is likelihood that the market will see 0880 and if there are no geopolitical or other shocks they may price in 0980. But likely not before another bout of selling toward 0780 or below, especially considering current geo-political conditions. Recent activity is highly import/export and geo-fundamental driven, not just by rate moves.
Why is that? Ask your analysts. After 5,000 words they will say “on the other hand.”
Or you can just ask your YouTube guru. They keep it simple. They know everything.
Well educated traders with common sense and more than out of the box indicators are the best traders.
GBPUSD DAILY CHART – BOUNCED OFF TRENDLINE
See this daily chart updated USING MY AMAZING TRADER CHARTING ALGO from the one I posted earlier (SCROLL BELOW) showing the key daily trandline has been tested
Bounce woud need to recover 1.2800-06 and stay above to suggest a low/pause.
I created The Amazing Trader and am still amazed when I see one of its lines, in this case a trendline, hold dead on.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
The Federal Reserve left Wall Street with little doubt about a first U.S. interest rate cut in seven weeks’ time, but multiple cross-currents from the earnings season, Japan and China, and domestic politics all make for a noisy start to August.
USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART -THE LEVEL TO WATCH
The bLow off to 148.50 and subsequent BOUNCE back to 150 HAS WIPED THE DECK OF STOPS and suggests potential for a pause/low but only if 150 is solidly regained.
On the upside, there is a minor double to at 150.31. Key resistance is at 151.25.
In any case, 150, which has now traded 2 days in a row IS THE LEVEL TO WATCH as it will dictate what comes next.
Forex Forum
Forex Forum & Blog
Forex Forum & Blog – Place where you can exchange your views on Forex Trading and Trading in General – Follow Daily developments on every single market around , including Stocks, Indices, Crypto, Metals…..Get tips and help that you need.
Forex Forum & Blog for all traders
Forex Forum & Blog for all traders
Forex Forum & Blog
OnlineBroker.Fr is the best resource for French language information on the best online trading platforms and crypto exchanges in France.
You may find this useful
Forex Forum & Blog
Forex Forum & Blog
What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Why is Risk Management Important in Trading?
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
What are Some Common Risk Management Strategies?
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
How to Implement Risk Management in your Trading Plan
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
Forex Forum & Blog
© 2024 Global View