[GVI Forex]

I just walked in after being at meetings all moirning so missed some of the fun.

It looks like the long squeeze is over for now and the wait is on for the FOMC decision.

J

[SF Monedge]

UsdPeso is doing the exact opposite of what the talking heads were excited about in recent days should Trump be elected.  It is under pressure in tandem with some other Dollar pairs.  I think we see 19.60 and perhaps 19.00.  The 19.60 has much greater risk of being run to the downside.  One would think after those who thought the sky would fall over tariffs/Trump are wiped out, it reverses and sees 20.00 /+ again.

[SF Monedge]

UsdCad is on the defensive this month and I think the next round figure we see should be 3800.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Daily

Resistances : 154.750 , 155.400 & 155.600

Supports : 153.150 , 152.550 & 151.850

If support at 153.150 holds today and we get a close tonight above it, expect another sharp move Up.

[SF Monedge]

Sell side of UsdChf and others related are working well.  Hard to imagine stocks dumping.

[GVI Forex]

EURUSD tested AT resistance (scroll below for chart) at 1.0794

[SF Monedge]

Abbey Cohen, Columbia University Business School.  The school with the riot supporters and anarchists.

She is on Bloomberg telling everyone Trump is going to de-fund science programs.  Columbia is a complete liberal staffed which claimed Trump is Hitler and the economy is red hot.  Elon Musk of Space X is on Trumps staff.  The economy is far from red hot.

The insanity continues.

Meanwhile it appears stocks and the Dollar are settling into what they more often what they do, which is move opposite to each other.  Yesterday was just a 100% display of risk on enthusiasm across the board.

Things may slowly return to normal looking forward.

[GVI Forex]

USD is trading lower

Logic says and easy to say with hindsight

Trading on what Trump might do (e.g. tariffs) when he doesn’t take office for another 2 months and has yet to choose a cabinet is a bit of a stretch so a retracement should not be a surprise.

Scroll below for updates with some FIBO levels in EURUSD and USDJPY.

[GVI Forex]

BOE cuts 25nps, as expected, 8-1 vote, expressed caution cutting rates too fast or by too much so slightly hawkish

[GVI Forex]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN

Bunds under pressure following German coalition collapse; FOMC & BoE due

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses are modestly firmer across the board, with US futures also slightly higher, but ultimately taking a breather following the significant strength in the prior session.

Dollar is giving back recent gains, Antipodeans outperform attempting to claw back post-election losses amid resilience in China.

USTs are a touch firmer awaiting today’s FOMC meeting, Bunds are the clear underperformer after the German coalition collapses.

Crude is modestly weaker, paring back some of gains seen in the prior session; XAU benefits from the softer Dollar and base metals gain amid positive price action in China overnight.

TRY NEWSQUAWK FREE FOR 7 DAYS

 

[GVI Forex]

10 YEAR BOND SNAPSHOTS

 

1. 
   
   
   

 

[Mtl JP]

oooh laugh …
koalishion gov’t has kollapssed

[GVI Forex]

GBP backing off (vs. EUR as well) ahead of the BOE rate decision (up next)

[GVI Forex]

Real time trade alert 

[GVI Forex]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART -TESTS UPSIDE

AUDUSD has fully retraced yesterday’s losses and is entering a key resistance zone, the 4 hour trendline and .6646.

To suggest more than a full retracement, a firm break of this area would need to be overcome.

[GVI Forex]

USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART – MODEST RETRACEMENT

As noted last night, Key target cited here many times is back on the table at 155.20… this is a level the BoJ should not want to see trade.

Whether a hidden hand or some verbal intervention, USDJPY has backed away from 155 but as the table below shows, it is still just a modest retracement, To suggest more than this, 153.40 would need to be taken out.

FIBOS 151.28 – 154.71

[GVI Forex]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – RETRACING

What caught my eye is the 1.0781 resistance a it coincides with a 38.2% retracement, which blocks the 1.0794 level.

Expect a limited upside unless 1.0800-10 is regained.

Given the straight line move down, use FIBOS as potential levels of resistance.

FIBOS 1.0937-1.0682

[GVI Forex]

Price action is like the day after a hurricane or typhoon.

Assess the damage and start digging out.

US bond market has pared back some of the spike in yields and usd has followed.

Charts to follow.

[GVI Forex]

Central Bank Monetary Policy Decidion time on Thursday

Bank of England
FOMC

See full previews

[GVI Forex]

Is There a Chance the Fed Will Not Cut Interest Rates?

Attention will now shift to Thursday’s FOMC decision where a 25bps rate cut is widely expected. So, the surprise would be no change by the Fed, which cannot be ruled out following the resounding win by President-elect Trump.

[Author]

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