Frankly I don’t care what the FED does because I am not running a billion dollar portfolio at present. I just want them to sneeze and provide actionable participation opportunity without getting scorched. Therefore, I have multiple orders, very light on leverage, at various points way outside of current market. If none are reached then I pounce on the momentum. That is how I approached days like this as a CTA.
Thus week’s ranges so far… stops are generaly placed outside the low/high for the week but not sure why anyone would place a stop after a key event kike the fOMC… look at your charts to see key levels outside of these levels
EURUSD 1.1072-1.1146
USDJPY 139.57-1.4246
GBPUSD 1.3111-1.3254
USDCAD 1.3565-1.3515
AUDUSD .6694-.6789
It is fun to remember that our comments in GVI are being watched. I found a comment I made here from about a week ago regarding market conditions in the comment section (verbatim cut and paste) by someone in the forum of an online media source in the UK last night just while entertaining the mind reading peoples perspectives. I left it alone of course, why chastise someone for no good reason. Good job GVI. The content here holds value.
Part of what is keeping Dx buoyed is apprehension in stocks ahead of the FED. The conviction is lukewarm in dollar though, hence a bit of two-way motion including other markets-wide components. It is important to remember a lot of pricing in has already transpired but there are also ongoing global transactions taking place in import/export and the like so this is fluid.
Wsj’s timiraos is trying a last pro – kick at 50 pt cut in this morn’s edition claiming that 50 bps is not reserved for “severe” condition
only at 2pm will we be able to see the strenght of his “whispering”
with market significantly pricing odds of 50 pointer, I got me some popcorn to see if the FED plies to these plaeyrs
Worth noting USDJPY touched 142 but went no farther (last 141.72)
GBP getting some flows after inflation data… EURGBP extending its low (last .8409)
Otherwise it is a wait and see until Fed time, USD is a touch softer
Bond yields a touch higher
Stocks holding up
But a new ball game after the Fed decision
Until then, market bets are still for a 50bps rate cut, not sure if it is based on hope, prayer or a stronger conviction.
FOMC
Besides the size of the rate cut and accompanying statement, keep an eye on the dot plot.
What is the dot plot?
The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dot plot is a chart that shows the projections of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members for the federal funds rate. The dot plot is published quarterly, and is a tool used to help the public understand the Fed’s thinking on interest rates and the economy.(AI Overview)
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
There’s little left to say about the dominant event of the day – other than how to game markets’ reaction to the size of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut later and what Fed policymakers project over the horizon.
Few, if any, doubt the first Fed easing of the cycle is now at hand. Wall Street’s S&P500 (.SPX), opens new tab hit a new intra-day record on Tuesday ahead of the decision – lapping up the prospect of lower borrowing costs even as the economy picks up some steam. Stock futures held firm overnight into the big decision.
Morning Bid: Flirting with records as Fed rates finally fade
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