So you are saying the market is pricing in a miss on the upside?
– Yes. Low expectations + stronger USD = Pricing in upside miss.
Maybe it is more of a non-event as in recent months the USD has traded soft ahead of CPI.
– If USD in recent months has traded soft ahead of CPI, why is it trading stronger today?
may vs will
–
* Germany’s economy has been struggling and the latest data has provided little hope for improvement.
* Economists say the worst may soon be over, but are still not hopeful about economic growth in 2024 and suggest the country may enter a technical recession this year.
* Headwinds include a slowdown of global trade, higher energy prices, and national and international political uncertainty.
Germany’s economy is on shaky ground and glimmers of hope are few and far between
low cost, plentiful and accessible energy is essential for a humming economy and a comfortably satisfying standard of living
Holidays update
Closed Monday
Japan, China, Hong Kong and Singapore
Closed Tuesday
Hong Kong, China
Closed all week
China
Monday Feb 19
US Presidents Day holiday
The day after the Super Bowl is not a holiday but..
An estimated 16 million Americans are expected to call out sick Monday after their football festivities, according to a survey from a human resources firm…CBS6
The question people should be asking re Biden is not whether he runs in the next election but if he’ll last thru this term… Still 11 months to go til Jan 20 next year….
Re JPY- The challenge to trading short JPY positions is the BOJ is holding aces (duh, right?). One comment on shift in policy and the elevator takes the express route down. As soon as they view things a bit too far too fast, they play a card… Game of chicken in other words… I don’t have a good answer for this one other than trade the trend but only with short term trades. Points get left on the table but you sleep better at night….
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