AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – GEOPOLITICS
You saw the sensitivity to risk off in a market which will be keeping one eye on the headlines.
With the Jewish New Year starting Wednesday night, there is a very tight window for retaliation so there may be some breathing room for the rest of the week.
On the downside, .6850 blocks ;6800-15
On the upside, .6895 would need to be renewed to restore aa bid.
Contrary to popular belief in some circles, US arms sales to Israel have not declined in recent years. The average annual sales to Israel were just over $1 Billion from the years 2015 through 2019, with not even ½ of $1 Billion in 2019.
In the year 2020 that figure skyrocketed to over $5.3 Billion US Dollars. – Per Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Side note but related, I am still on the sell side of EurJpy and UsdChf primarily for the moment.
The stats, which get put up on places like Bloomberg TV showing September, as being generally a stock market negative month – the reality is as we both know that October is always the true risk month
the expensiveness of the stock market with the rundown into November elections with the Geo political risk that is obvious, I would anticipate a lower stock market in October with the risk of a decent pullback.
My guess is that the world in the 2 weeks before November is going to grind to a juddering halt and only once we know the outcome of the US elections will normality return and then a Christmas rally from The FED and from a lower stock market base can occur
You can see in the USD index that 100 or just above has been supporting the dollar now for a while so today’s move is not really surprising
Iran is about to make the mistake that gives the US, Britain, Canada, and other western allies the excuse to change the chess board.
Iran should give back the thousands of military vehicles and aircraft Obama/Biden/Harris in the billions of US dollars and the entire administration left behind in the putrid and embarrassing withdrawal of US forces in Afghanistan that cost many US personnel their lives as a good will gesture. While they have the chance. Because after November the landscape could be quite different.
Here’s the story
“The US has indications that Iran intends to carry out a missile attack against Israel in the immediate future”. according to a Senior White House official cited by Axio’ Ravid
Source. Newsquawk.com
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