Ah Losses – books can be written on those 😀 As you disclosed something from past, let me share something of my own :
I was still very young ( but will learn 😀 , when in front of the whole Bank, all the dealers on the desk and General Manager present , went Short on USDJPY – 105.75 , very confident ….calm…full of myself…It moved against me a bit, but not much…fine…part of the game…next morning, Chief dealer on the desk calling me at around 6 am – hysterical….rate was on 107.50…position wasn’t small…I explained him that all is OK, it is just an Uptick and soon they’ll go for below 100 ( perfect target at 80 and possibly new low…no questions asked…Of course it went 109….112….I was forced to close it at 115….
I moved to USDDEM – end of story 😀
P.S. I still remember some significant rates for different currencies , and even use them as part of my passwords 😀
Bobby –
I would like to offer a sample of how incredibly accurate I can be. But based on a loss. THE perfect loss.
Years ago when on the phone with my CTA partner in New York, I bought Dow futures at the exact high tick. That tick remained the high for 6 months.
My partner could not stop laughing. My reputation got around a bit after that. You must have a sense of humor in this business.
I did close the trade quickly lol.
The perfect loss.
Markets are manipulated from the stone age of course, but what makes it interesting is the fact that all those manipulations make sense at the end of the day – looking at charts one can easily spot ( IQ needed 😀 “rules” that drive the market.
Different manipulators with always different agendas exclude each others in the process – for one to earn the other has to lose – so bottom line : look carefully and use their manipulations in your own favour….
And example of my earlier post. Years ago another CTA in New York and I would time Dow futures based on a Dow Jones Newswire commentary that came out at exactly 11am PST / 2pm EST every morning. The market would almost instantly go strongly the opposite direction of what the commentary said. This went on for over a year with only the rare occasions it did not transpire that way.
If you pay attention you can find how, when, and where markets are being manipulated.
Trading in current conditions
We have all said a lot about trading in geopolitical turmoil’s, but I would like to mention something that is directly causing a havoc within all those trading on Small time frames ( just like me 😀
No matter how good your system/strategy is, right now we have to rethink our entry and stop loss levels – every now and then we can see some “unnatural” spikes happening where they shouldn’t be.
In reality, your trade would be just fine if there wasn’t that silly spike….hitting your stop loss just for fun.
So what to do?? Well, idea of widening my stop is not something that I favour – so for me better solution is to move to a bit bigger time frame ( from let’s say 4min chart to 10 min chart, or even bigger) as those spikes would be more natural and easier to avoid.
Just my 10 cents worth….
We have all said a lot about trading in geopolitical turmoil’s, but I would like to mention something that is directly causing a havoc within all those trading on Small time frames ( just like me J
No matter how good your system/strategy is, right now we have to rethink our entry and stop loss levels – every now and then we can see some “unnatural” spikes happening where they shouldn’t be.
In reality, your trade would be just fine if there wasn’t that silly spike….hitting your stop loss just for fun.
So what to do?? Well, idea of widening my stop is not something that I favour – so for me better solution is to move to a bit bigger time frame ( from let’s say 4min chart to 10 min chart, or even bigger) as those spikes would be more natural and easier to avoid.
Just my 10 cents worth….
EURUSD
So far Support at 1.10500 held it’s ground, but looking at 4h chart the danger is still looming.
4H Chart
Close of this 4h bar ( in about 30 min) above 1.10700 would release the pressure for at least some time.
However, close below 1.10600 would signal yet another test of the previous low.
Daily Chart
Based on the Daily chart we have the following :
Supports : 1.10500 , 1.10000 & 1.09500
Resistances : 1.10850 , 1.11150 & 1.11450
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
With Middle East tensions dialing back up, U.S. port workers on strike and global industry under the cosh, the final quarter of 2024 promises to be a bit edgier for world markets than the relatively serene first nine months.
The fourth quarter was barely underway on Tuesday when 12 months of intense conflict in Gaza and Lebanon spilled over again into another direct standoff between Israel and Iran – jarring recently listless energy markets and provoking some limited hedging of risk assets.
ALERT
USDJPY spikes up on this
Japan’s PM Ishiba says “we are not in the environment for an additional rate hike.”… Newsquawk.com
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