[GVI Forex]

You saw me point out EURGBP moving higher and how it created a tug-of-wat between EURUSD and GBPUSD,

If you want me to elaborate how to use crosses to trade spot fx, contact me using the Contact button in the upper menu bar.
‘

[GVI Forex]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – 155 OR BUST

The key level is clear at 155, not only a major pivotal level but 155.20 is just above it.

I am not saying there was a hidden hand protecting 155 but price action suggest there was someone protecting this level.

On the downside, only back below 154.40 would deflect the focus from 155,

[GVI Forex]

BTCUSD 4 HOUR CHART – TESTING 90K

Given the volatility in this crypto I prefer to look atr pivotal level, such a 80K, 85K, 90K, etc rather than specific chart points.

Looking at this chart, risk is for 90K or above while above 85K. Below 85K would slow the risk.

[GVI Forex]

USDMXN 4 HOUR CHART- CONSOLIDATING WITH A BID

To keep this simple, 20.00+ needs to become support to keep a bid targeting the 20.80 high.

20.10-80 is the current consolidation range with a bid while above 20.10-30.

 

[GVI Forex]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – Consolidation ir Retracement

Keep an eye on 5963 as a break would suggest a pause and risk of a retracement.

On the other side, 6000 is clearly a majo pivotal level that will dictate whether this is just consolidation or risk of a deeper retracement.

[Belgrade Bobby]

NIO Inc.

NIO Down Nearly 9%, on Pace for Largest Percent Decrease Since December 2023

Targets 3.50 area

NIO Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (NIO) is currently at $4.61, down $0.45 or 8.89%

·         On pace for largest percent decrease since Dec. 20, 2023, when it fell 10.2%

·         Worst three day stretch since the three days ending April 16, 2024, when it fell 14.57%

·         Down 9.61% month-to-date

·         Down 49.17% year-to-date; on pace for worst year since 2022, when it fell 69.22%

·         Down 92.66% from its all-time closing high of $62.84 on Feb. 9, 2021

·         Down 51.11% from its 52-week closing high of $9.43 on Dec. 28, 2023

[GVI Forex]

The Little Dutch Boy kept his finger in the dyke below 1.06

[GVI Forex]

Why is the USD firmer today? (USDJPY IS close to BUT still below 155, EURUSD unable to distance from 1.06)

[GVI Forex]

As I noted last night, nothing goes straight up forever so stocks seeing some profit-taking should not be a surprise.

No top yet in EURGBP, EURUSD soft but lagging aa GBPUSD slides in what is still a tug of war.

Otherwise, dollar is firmer, including USDJPY despite the risk off tone.

[GVI Forex]

Once EURGBP finds a top, EURUSD risks losing its cross bid keeping it above 1.06

[GVI Forex]

As I noited, watched EURGBP (firmer), creating a tug-of-war between EURUSDD and GBPUSD

[Mtl JP]

‘The market is right’: Former Fed policymaker Mester sees fewer rate cuts next year after Trump’s victory – cnbc
The U.S. Federal Reserve could carry out fewer rate cuts than previously expected next year should President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed global tariffs take hold, former Fed policymaker Loretta Mester said Tuesday.

Correction: Markets are now expecting 1 percentage point of cuts in the first half of 2025, according to median poll forecasts cited by Reuters. An earlier version misstated the figure.

[Mtl JP]

I am biased AND I am suspicious of the Dem’s

“Former Harris communications director Jamal Simmons said on CNN that Joe Biden could step down, allowing Kamala Harris to serve as the 47th president.”

and … lets say / what reaction from bonds could one expect, assuming joe does so willingly and obediently ?

[GVI Forex]

GBPUSD DAILY CHART – Below 1.28

Chart is pretty clear

1.2798 => 1.2564 => 1/2611

[GVI Forex]

GBPUSD 1.2798 is the key level, a firm break would open a void until 1.2611-64… makes 1.28 the pivotal level…GBPUSD selling pressure is also coming from a firmer EURGBP (8 15 min green candles in a row) will post a chart later

[GVI Forex]

US 10 YEAR BOND YIELD…. up around 9bp from Friday’s close…helping to support USDJPY

[GVI Forex]

GER30 1 HOUR CHART

I am not an expert on German stocks but there are headwinds, both political and economic… slow economy, political (German election), slow China, risk of US tariffs

On this CFD chart, 19139 and 19000 need to hold to contain the current retracement and keep it from turning into something more.

[GVI Forex]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – 1.06 DEFENSE3

Range si far 1.0606-1.0663

Failure to regain 1.0665 kept risk on the downside.

The bounce from above 1.06 suggests a possible options defense at this key chart support. Back above 1.0630, at a minimum, would be neede3d to slow the risk.

[Belgrade Bobby]

How to approach to coming news and events

We have a very special situation on our hands boys and girls – in previous period it was all about Interest Rates and FOMC / ECB decisions , but now the rules are about to change.

We can call these two coming months : Pre Trump Era

There are already gazillion speculations on how the incoming Gov in USA will influence the world, markets and our daily livelihood – but those are exactly that – Speculations.

And until Trump takes a Crown, we can expect some very wild stories and even wilder reactions of the markets.

Do not fall for any of it – not only that no one really knows what’s gonna happen next, but you can’t rely even on statements coming directly from The Man – he tends to talk a lot, but at the end results are at best mixed.

[GVI Forex]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN’

Equities on the backfoot; USD continues to advance &  Bunds are bid post-ZEW

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

Equities are on the backfoot; the RTY underperforms, paring some of the Trump-induced strength in the prior session.

Dollar continues to advance higher, GBP on the backfoot following mixed jobs data which saw an uptick in unemployment but wages remain sticky.

Bonds are mixed, USTs are flat ahead of several Fed speakers whilst Bunds are bid after poor German ZEW figures.

Crude holds an upward bias, XAU/base metals are pressured by the stronger Dollar; BTC pulls back from a USD 89k handle.

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