UsdJpy 146.95 is a significant price magnet. As long as the market is trading under it one should favor the sell side on positions. Above it the strength is on the buy side. It will take a while to get there so for now it is 145.25 and 143.50 as key price levels.
gbp at 2x top at 1.3239
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YESSS unpopular decision !
Reuters
Starmer signals pain and ‘unpopular decisions’ to fix Britain
Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Tuesday he would have to take unpopular decisions, raising the possibility of “painful” taxes on the rich and … that … Britain’s problems would only get worse before getting better.
The safer approach would be to stay on the sell side of UsdJpy and wait for the European fix to conclude before loading up too hard on Euro. I see UsdJpy continuing to pull up temporarily but on limited horizons and the opposite for Euro. It can change but the volume of calls to puts in Euro is very strong at present. Markets are apprehensive and picking little bets in stocks which is dousing enthusiasm. Nvidia will add a spark. This is where we start seeing hedging build to rebalance portfolios pre-Fed and it will continue for weeks.
There is much more open interest in Eu calls vs puts. There is more extrinsic value in puts. Implied volatility is more median/stable in calls indicating structure. Gamma on puts is far greater a band and so puts are very unstable. By options contracts alone when compared to other metrics such as forwards Euro is not happy and so a pullup would be customary to 1.1180 where thy buying dies out.
My projection of Yen from NY session yesterday for 145.25 fell within 8 pips of accuracy but did not fill overnight. At times the main thing is the market is demonstrating mathematic cohesion.
UsdJpy just broke some average related (which I do not trade on but other participants do) parameters but it is not enough yet to warrant selling out on the downside and so there is still mathematical chance for the pair to hold just above 144.12.
with the FEDs having successfully fed (poison) players, current and for the next d=few days players are likely to geame month-end and , to unlikely solid comittement, game friday’s PCE
