[Belgrade Bobby]

Incoming Data

Check Economic Data Calendar

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Record stock market highs have lit up across the world once again – though not yet for the usual suspects in the S&P500 (.SPX), opens new tab and Nasdaq (.IXIC), opens new tab.

Despite a rare stumble for the artificial intelligence theme after Nvidia’s results underwhelmed this week, the rest of the stock market complex shrugged it off and has instead lapped up a tasty diet of brisk economic growth along with falling inflation and interest rates.

Morning Bid: Record highs abound, except in usual place

[GVI Forex]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Consolidating around 145

Current pattern: 4 days trading either side of 145

145 = midpoint of 143.50-146.50

Next move will be dictated by a break in the pattern and whether 145 becomes support or resistance.

145.50 again a pivotal level on the upside

[GVI Forex]

Key times today

12:30 GMT US PCE (Fed’s favored inflation indicator)

15:00 GMT London 4 PM (month end) fixing

In between is the Chicago PMI and U of M final consumer sentiment

Note US jobless data seems to be the greater focus over inflation now that the Fed ha signaled a shift to rate cuts.
See our Economic Calendar

Npte also, US market will be thin and likely thin further ahead of the long Labor Day weekend.

[GVI Forex]

What ate FX rebalancing flies?

FX rebalancing flows are large-scale institutional transactions that involve buying and selling assets in a portfolio to maintain a desired asset allocation. These flows are often seen at the end of the month, and their impact is usually most felt near the 4 PM London fix on the last trading day.

AI Overview

[SF Monedge]

To detail the trade I was long from 144.28 and was confident 145.25 would be seen with t a ceiling of EITHER 145.50 or 145.60 on over-reach.  Failed to take the money around 145.40 to be safe, endured the pullback, loaded up elsewhere in conjunction with the AudUsd positioning I mentioned coming into the NY session so was just fine but that is quite a trim on gains by being impatient and not reacting aggressively enough in the same opera.

If you are not swimming in money precision is important.  I hope this helps novices or anyone else for me to share my perspective as a former CEO of an investment firm.  None of us are perfect and all of us face the same market.

[SF Monedge]

I was reminded today to go with your instinct if it is based on experience as I almost blew a very strong gain in UsdJpy.  I am confident those of you who observe my posts recognize how precise I can be, this time fortunately it was not a loss but a sound trimming of the tree of a gain.  I remain long UsdJpy into Asia (from pre-US GDP-which was a bit aggressive) but see a horizon for that in the future, not necessarily tonight in the Asian session.

In short, a pullback on the longs was stickier than usual and went the distance.  Unless you are taking a position and if you are trading session to session you take the money when your parameters are met and incorporate patience for the market to settle for another shot of the basketball.

I hope commenting on trading acumen is helpful.

JP- your input helped once again as always.

[GVI Forex]

Power of 50 Day

USDJPY failed to hold above 145.50 (high 145.55)

US500 hit a wall at 5650

EURUSD paused above 1.1050 (low 1.1055)

[Mtl JP]

usdmxn 19.78

I think I am OK to prefer to buy the pair
Sup 19.43

if only its carry were not soooo expensive

[Mtl JP]

usdmxn 19.77
–
SF mexican economy looking like it wants to heave

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 101.23

biased uP in the s/term
Res 101.50
Sup 100.70

[Mtl JP]

some econ – related

12:00 SNB Jordan / done now
13:00 janet’s 44 Bln 7-yr paper / done
13:00 ECB’s nagel / done
15:30 bostic on econ outlook

bostic could be a doozey,
that 880k revision iteself now also rumored to be a joke

[GVI Forex]

This is a great bonus offer — US traders only (click below)

[SF Monedge]

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — Undocumented immigrants in California could be eligible for state assistance in buying a home under a bill the state Legislature sent to Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom Wednesday.

When Harris is made President I look forward to trading Peso more after the US adopts it as the national currency.

[GVI Forex]

Just for the forum archives:;

GBPUSD low was 1.3145 vs my earlier post

key support is the former 1.3144 2024 high/breakout level.

[GVI Forex]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – RECORD HIGH BACK ON THE RADAR?

Nvidia earnings inspired USS500 drop did not go far enough and bounce has the record 5673 high back on the radar.

To expose it, 5651 would need to become support.

Looking ahead, I read that sept is normally a seasonal weak month for stocks. Let;s see if the prospect of a Fed rate cut makes this a non-typical month?

[GVI Forex]

Now you see how a liquidating market works

EURUSD => Breaks 1.1071 (stops) => 1.1055 => 1.1073

By the way USDJPY 145.50 capped the upside again

[GVI Forex]

The last week of August is usually one where the big guys start setting up for the post-summer market.

This time it seems more a matter of squeezing USD shorts and liquidating rathen than new positioning.

[michael Calif]

Sunday repost  ….  that same law of vibration projects lower Euro and Yen futures prices starting anytime this week.    :gtwo3

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Resistances : 1.10900, 1.11200 & 1.11500

Supports : 1.10500, 1.10300 & 1.09900

Bullish as long as above 1.09100

Weekly Close above 1.10300 would call for another leg up.

I just want to keep things in perspective,,,

[Author]

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