Summary
Swiss franc more appealing in carry trades after yen blow-up
Investors hope for stability, aided by central bank
Yet safe-haven status can lead to big rallies
LONDON, Sept 2 (Reuters) – As investors turn to the Swiss franc as an alternative to Japan’s yen to fund carry trades, the risk of the currency staging one of its rapid rallies remains ever present.
Swiss franc carry trade comes fraught with safe-haven rally risk
EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – 1.1050 Sets the tone
On this chart 1.1030 is a key support, 1.1095 a key resistance.
Here is the EURUSD update in our Weekly FX Chart Outlook
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Assuming the high is in at 1,12, what is the risk on the downside?
Start out by using 1.10-1.12 as a range to the post summer market with 1.11 as the neutral mid-point and the ultimate bias setter for this currency.
Currently, 1.1050 will set the tone if trading between 1.10-1.11 but expect a limited upside unless 1.11+ is renewed
US ELECTION AS TRADING THEME
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When can one expect markets to start to trade on odds of next w/house inhabitant ?
Don’t Look Now, but Trump’s Back to Being the Favorite – NATHAN SILVER
THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)
The Bank of Canada on Wednesday is expected to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points for a third meeting in a row, this despite better-than-expected second-quarter growth of 2.1 percent. The US employment report on Friday is the other big event, expected to rebound 160,000 for nonfarm payroll growth following July’s disappointing 114,000 gain.
Other data will include Swiss consumer prices and GDP on Tuesday, both expected to remain unchanged at 1.3 percent year-over-year and 0.5 percent quarter-over-quarter, respectively. German manufacturing orders on Wednesday are expected to fall back in July after jumping higher in June with German industrial production on Friday likewise expected to fall back after rising in June.
Econoday
BTC DAILY CHART – GLASS HALF EMPTY OR HALF FILLED
i t may be a matter of looking at your glass half empty or half full after BTC held a test below 50K but failed to get back above 65K.
Personally, if I was a BTC bull (for the record I do not trade cryptos) I would be disappointed that it has not been a safe haven that followed gold to a record high
In any case, the current range is just outside 55K-65K with 60K clearly pivotal in setting its trading tone.
Summer is over – USD shorts got washed out – New ball game.
There was context recently in discussion about the value of the US Dollar Index x
Risk management is vital. When trading. The economics are ar reflection. When trading Yen I found as a Quant, it becomes math. I zlso found that perception is almost impossible to quantify.
Result? In Irony … go with what you see but not in a fierce fahion.
Goldilocks market?
Summary
Economic data supports expectation of 25 bps cut in September
Marvell jumps after forecast beats estimates
Ulta Beauty tumbles following annual forecast trim
S&P 500 +1.01%, Nasdaq +1.13%, Dow +0.55%
Aug 30 (Reuters) – Wall Street stocks rose and the Dow scored a second consecutive all-time closing high on Friday, with Tesla and Amazon climbing after fresh U.S. economic data raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates modestly in September.
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