GBPUSD testing 1.3087 again … Here are retracement levels for 1.2664-1.3266 using our Fibonacci Calculator
US500 4 HOUR CHART – Stocks set the risk tone
Here are retracement levels using our Fibonacci Calculator
GBPUSD DAILY CHART – Support tested
Today’s low 1.3087
As posted in out Weekly FX Chart Outlook
The failure to hold above it and retest the high suggests a lack of power but only a break of 1.3087 would suggest more to the downside. Above 1.3087 it is still in a consolidation mode.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Hidden hand?
As noted in our Weekly FX Chart Outlook, USDJPY remains the most sensitive currency to the risk on or risk off mood, especially the latter
USDJPY came close (today’s low at 141.76_) vs the low for the move (141.68) and then rebounded as it followed higher US stocks to start the week.
For me this suggests a hidden hand (BoJ?) protecting the low but in any case there is a higher low.
BUT to end this current episode down and shift the focus to 145, 144.22 would need t be taken out.
Look for 143.59 to be a pivotal level today.
EYE ON YELLEN
She believes
• Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that she believes the U.S. economy is healthy and that recent months of cooler jobs data is a signal of a soft landing, not a recession.
• Yellen said the U.S. is not seeing meaningful layoffs and the economy is “deep into a recovery.”
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sought to reassure the public on Saturday that the U.S. economy remains strong, despite a string of weak job reports that have rattled investors and weighed on the stock market.
“We’re seeing less frenzy in terms of hiring and job openings, but we’re not seeing meaningful layoffs,” “I’m attentive to downside risk now on the employment side, but what I think we’re seeing, and hope we will continue to see, is a good, solid economy.” – Yellen said at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin
And all clowns at the festival laughed so hard they rolled on the floor and some in the mud outside
There’s no doubt among forecasters that the European Central Bank will cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points at its Thursday announcement, a move that could take second billing in the week’s events should Wednesday’s US CPI report miss expectations. August’s CPI is expected to cool to 2.6 from 2.9 percent though the core rate is seen holding steady at 3.2 percent. Cooler-than-expected results could heat up talk of a 50-basis-point cut at the Federal Reserve’s September 18 announcement while higher-than-expected results would likely settle expectations at 25 points.
Chinese merchandise trade will open the week on Saturday local time with only a modest narrowing in the country’s surplus expected. Monthly UK GDP on Wednesday is expected to show marginal growth while US consumer sentiment on Friday, in what will be the first indication for September, is expected to remain flat.
Econoday
Weekly FX Chart Outlook – Run for the exits!
After whipsaw trading following a weaker US jobs report, the market has to pick up the pieces after a tough end to the week where it ended in a risk off mood led by the sell-off in stocks..
In the week ahead, the focus will be on equity markets to set the risk mood….
Newsquawk.com Week Ahead: 9th-13th September
Highlights include China CPI, US CPI/PPI, ECB rate decision; UK GDP & employment/wages
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