EURUSD 1h
Strategy that I posted yesterday worked more than well today.
Pair came exactly to the Support line at 1.10340
Resistances : 1.10450, 1.10600 & 1.10800
If Support is taken out, we can expect 1.09850 to be seen.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Wall Street gets September off to a late start with a holiday- shortened week that focusses squarely on the U.S. jobs market after last month’s unemployment rate scare sparked a mini panic.
Critical to that thinking will be the August payrolls report on Friday, with consensus forecasts for a pick-up in jobs growth to 160,000 last month and a retreat in the jobless rate to 4.2%.
Before then we get a whole heap of other labor market soundings – private sector surveys and layoffs data for August, July job opening numbers and another weekly jobless readout.
USDCAD 4 HOUR CHART – PRE-BOC JITTERS
As posted in our FX Weekly Chart Outlook
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‘Look for the focus to be on the BoC meeting on Wednesday where a rate cut is widely expected.
In the meantime, 1.35 is one of those pivotal levels that would need to be solidly renewed along with a break of 1.3515 to suggest the bottom is in for now.
Given the absence of nearby resistance after the straight line move down, use our FIBO calculator for retracements to find levels of potential resistance beyond 1.35..
US ISM MANUFACTURING CHART
(Click on any item in our Economic Calendar to see a chart for that item)
USDX DAILY CHART – SOME WAYS TO GO
Looking at a USDX chart shows it would have a ways to go before testing key resistance levels (103.20-55)
Using the index as a EURUSD proxy (57.6% of the index), you can see how its bounce coincided with the EURUSD retreat.
Scroll down this page to see key EURUSD levels.
For today, one focus is on how markets react to the US ISM data,
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – TYPICAL FALSE START?
As I noted in the Weekly FX Chart Outlook
Note the start of a new quarter and post-summer often sees false starts and whipsaws until market settle on a theme and recover full liquidity.
Well, there was one already in USDJPY after it failed to reach 147.34 (high 14t.20) as has since back off.
Catalyst: Weaker equities (risk off)
This ;leaves 145 as the ultimate bias setter in a market that will keep an eye as to whether this correlation continues.
TUE: Swiss CPI (Aug), Swiss GDP (Q2), Turkish CPI (Aug), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug), Final Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
How markets react to data this week will give a clue as to whether the dollar can regain its legs and/or stocks can extend the end of august rally.
How these markets end the week will be more important than how they start it.
Here are the key events and detailed previews:
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