GAP DLRx 100.5x
on the grander scale of charts, still looks weak.
But in the s/term, I am interested the GAP”s closing
yeah ! …”As anyone trading also knows, markets move when there is a surprise in a news event vs. the consensus forecast.”
IF you look at the Swaps pricing for wednesday u d see that playrs are leaning towards a bigger cut. but u would also notices that it is a wishi-washi conviction.
Bottom line is that
– some will get smashed on wednesday which will likely manifest itself by displays of volatility.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Time for a pause?
What caught my attention in USDJPY has been
1) The bounce from sub-140 and then staying above it… deck wiped of sell stops on the break below 140.00-20
2) Typically USDJPY is most sensitive to US interest rates but it has not reacted to the fall in bond yields.
Price action suggests a pause for now but would need to get above 141.40-50, then 142+ to put 143.04 in play and make a case that the low is in for now.
Posted here earlier… NOTE the post-data low was dead on at 1.1115 (This is another reason we call it The Amazing Trader)-
Posted earlier
On the downside, it keeps a bid as long as it stays above 1.11 with a stronger bid as long as 1.1115 holds as support
As any trader knows, it is the reaction to news (e.g. economic reports, monetary policy decisions0 that counts. This is where the saying Buy the rumor, sell the fact comes from. It also reminds me of the old trading adage, It is the reaction to news, more than the news itself that matters.
As anyone trading also knows, markets move when there is a surprise in a news event vs. the consensus forecast. In the current week, there is a full calendar where the focus will be on central bank monetary decisions from the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan.
So, let’s take a look at what might produce a surprise.
(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
With Federal Reserve easing within touching distance, U.S. stocks are not hanging about, underlining an uncomfortable aspect of the central bank’s decision this week.
Amid a fresh rotation of sectors from megacaps to small fry, the equal-weighted S&P500, which adjusts the main index to strip away the overwhelming influence of a handful of outsize stocks, hit a record high…
Morning Bid: New highs, rotation as Fed meets with retail healthcheck
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – TAKING A BREATHER
XAUUSD has taken a pause below 2600 after setting a new record high at 2589, which now becomes key resistance.
Given the sharp move up, let’s take a look at retracement levels as potential levels of support (see our Fibonacci Calculator)
EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – BACK ABOVE 1.11
The shift in money market pricing in favor of a 50bpS Fed rate cut tomorrow is giving EURUSD support although it faces resistance at 1.1155 and 1.1190 ahead of the key recent 1,1201 high.
On the downside, it keeps a bid as long as it stays above 1.11 with a stronger bid as long as 1.1115 holds as support
Next event risk: US Retail Sales at 12:30 GMT.
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