A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
“Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday:
* US Q2 GDP, weekly jobless claims, June durable goods orders, July Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey”
They should, I agree. Just that – imho – US Q2 GDP to be likely the least impactful on traders for direction.
But I have been wrong too, I am not perfect
XAUUSD DAILY CHART – XAUJPY?
If we assume that carry trade unwinds are driving the market, then a drop in XAUUSD makes more sense than a rise as this has been a perfect candidate for carry trades.
Key daily support 2349
Key moving averages are still out of range but the 200 4 hour mva is at 2360 currently,
2400 will remain pivotal.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
The worst day for the S&P500 (.SPX), opens new tab since 2022 and mounting central bank easing bets suggest markets’ serene ‘soft landing’ scenario is being questioned as China growth worries and U.S. election risks mount.
Morning Bid: Growth angst or air pocket? Stocks nurse losses
USDJPY DAILY CHART – 150?
SLIDE CONTINUES WITH THE PIVOTAL 152 LEVEL LOOMING – BELOW IT PUTS 150 ON THE RADAR
CARRY TRADE UNWINDS FUELING THE MOVE AFTER BOJ INTERVENTIONS FINALLY TIPPED THE SCALES
KEY LEVELS:
151.84
151.50 = 200 DAY MVA
RETRACEMENT LEVELS FROM OUR FIBONACCI CALCULATOR (LIGHT TYPE IS HOW IT APPEARS)
AUDUSD DAILY CHART – .6500 LOOMS
Current patterm (which I have been noting) 9 down days in a row
Key supports are a6 .6464 and .6361
.6500 may become important if it holds but depends on whether there is more selling in AUDJPY
Technical damage: It closed below the 100 day mva yesterday (blue) and has broken below the 200 day mva today.
To slow the risk, AUDJPY needs to find support and the 200 day mva, at a minimum would need to be recovered,
AUDJPY DAILY CHART UNWIND CONTINUES
Worth noting:
AUDJPY is currently down 1.9%
Currently below the 200 day mva (orange line)
Current pattern: 11 down days in a row
There is a key support zone from .8698-.9775
Given the divergence with USDJOY, one can assume that there have been major iquidtaions oif AUDJOY carry trades.
Watch the ckoise vs the 2090 day mva
USDJPY DAILY CHART – ANOTHER NEW LOW
153.00 JUST TRADED AND AS i HAVE BEEN NOTING, BIG FIGURES WILL LIKELY BE AS IMPORTANT AS TECHNICAL LEVELS.
AS YOU CAN SEE BY THIS CHART, THERE IS A VOID UNTILK 151,84, WITH THE KEY BIG FIGURE 152 STANDING INFRONT OF IT.
INTRA-DAY 153 IS NOW THE KEY LEVEL.
ONLY BACK ABOVE 154.05 WOULD PUT 155 BACK ON THE RADAR.
The wait is on for US GDP and PCE
THU: CBR Announcement, CBRT Announcement; EZ M3 (Jun), German Ifo (Jul), US Durable Goods (Jun), GDP Advance & PCE (Q2), IJC (20th Jul)
NAS100 DAILY CHART – TRENDLKINE BROKEN
A HIGHLIGHT WAS THE DAILY TRENDLINE BREAK SO WATCH HOW IT TRADES VS, IT TOMORROW
See below for retracement levels using our Fibonacci Calculator
Nasdaq 100 – NDX
Nasdaq hits one-month low as Tesla, Alphabet knock megacaps down
KEY POINTS:
S&P 500, Dow hit multi-week lows
Visa falls after missing revenue growth forecasts
AT&T rises after beating subscriber-addition estimates
Enphase Energy up after results
Indexes down: Dow 0.85%, S&P 1.61%, Nasdaq 2.55%
The Nasdaq plummeted to a one-month low on Wednesday after Tesla and Alphabet disappointed with lackluster earnings, prompting investors to question if the Big Tech and AI-fueled 2024 equity rally was sustainable in the long run.
I believe we should see Bitcoin futures at 6040 in coming weeks though there is decent potential to see 6800 or higher prior. Enjoyed the Ether ETF rolling out the other day. Any participation in crypto on my part at this stage is purely speculative due to them not yet being mature instruments. I realize that upsets the average GenZ and Millennial anarchist who wants them to replace to US Dollar so they can feel like they changed the world and are oh so smart, but those are just the facts. They should transform to being more viable financial instruments over time like moth larvae somewhat in around 2 years from now. Ultimately Stablecoin will dominate the pool of fringe crypto’s in various respects.
On another note I like the buy side of Gold stocks and if you don’t have much money then GROY (Gold Rty Group) from the 1.30’s or perhaps even 1.40’s is decent R/R you can live with even if it doesn’t go your way right away.
AMC Stock Alert: AMC Previews Revenue Drop, Pivot to Net Loss for Q2
Trading of AMC Entertainment AMC stock was briefly halted this morning following the release of its preliminary second-quarter earnings. It was resumed at 9:43 ET, and, as of this writing, AMC stock is currently about 7% down.
AMC posted revenue of $1.03 billion, down 23.54% from $1.347 billion a year ago. Preliminary revenue was in line with the consensus analyst estimate of $1.03 billion.
The movie theater chain also reverted back to being an unprofitable company with a net loss of $32.8 million compared to net earnings of $8.6 million year-over-year (YOY). Diluted loss per share fell to approximately 10 cents from a diluted earnings per share of 6 cents. Analysts were expecting a GAAP EPS loss of 47 cents.
Alphabet Inc.- GOOGL
Alphabet shares hit lowest level since June 4
** Shares of Google parent Alphabet GOOG fall 5% to $172.55 in day trading, hitting their lowest since June 4
** Alphabet’s Q2 capital expenditure rose more than expected, to $13.2 bln, due to support generative AI services
** Alphabet-owned Youtube’s Q2 ad sales grew 13% versus a 21% gain in Q1
** “Investors were quick to find fault and the spotlight immediately shone on a slowdown in Google’s advertising growth”
** Alphabet reported Q2 revenue of $84.74 bln, up 14% YoY, beating analysts’ estimate of $84.17 bln – LSEG data
Tesla Inc TSLA and Google parent Alphabet Inc’s GOOG GOOGL second-quarter earnings on Tuesday failed to impress the Street and are dragging the stocks lower.
Tesla, a key Nvidia customer, reported second-quarter revenue growth of 2% year-on-year to $25.5 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $24.7 billion. EPS of $0.52 lagged the consensus estimate of $0.62.
TSLA – Tesla
Chip Stocks Nvidia, AMD And Others See More Selloff On Wednesday – What’s Going On?
U.S. chip stocks led by Nvidia Corp NVDA, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMD, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co TSM, Broadcom Inc AVGO, Qualcomm Inc QCOM, Arm Holdings Plc ARM, Intel Corp INTC, Micron Technology, Inc MU are trading lower on Wednesday.
NVIDIA – NVDA
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