then there is the odd-ball chance that jerome will somehow be less than forthcoming about an imminent rate cut.
seeing how the market is wound up in its expectation for jerome going from yellow to green light about a cut, anything wobbly , hesistant or “prudent” could result in player – awww – disappointment
and be a dandy profit-juicing opportunity
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
By any standards of an already busy year, markets are digesting an awful lot of information in a very short space of time – with a Bank of Japan interest rate rise and Microsoft earnings disappointment the latest servings on the final day of July.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
By any standards of an already busy year, markets are digesting an awful lot of information in a very short space of time – with a Bank of Japan interest rate rise and Microsoft earnings disappointment the latest servings on the final day of July.
Officials were burned earlier this year by hotter inflation, but new risks to the labor market have helped rebuild the groundwork for cuts.
Nick Timiraos
July 30, 2024
The Outlook
Inflation and labor-market developments should allow Federal Reserve officials this week to signal that a cut is very possible at their next meeting, in September.
here is jeff with his nickle’s worth:
Here’s everything you need to know about the Fed decision coming Wednesday
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Ps / Jerome holds a press conf after FOMC’s deed
One model used at the Fed was written in 2006. Titled “the yield curve and predicting recessions,” the paper calculates recession probabilities over the next 12 months using just three variables: the 10-year yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y, the 3 month yield BX:TMUBMUSD03Mand the current federal funds rate. Right now, that indicator points to a 70% probability of a recession.
EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – 1.08 HOLDS
Headline inflation in the euro zone unexpectedly rose to 2.6% in July, the European Union’s statistics agency said Wednesday.
Core inflation, which excludes more volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, hit 2.9% in July, which was higher than expected.
The widely watched services inflation print came in at 4% for July, easing slightly from June’s 4.1% reading.(source: CNBC)
Chart shows the bounce from just below 1.08 would need to take out 1.0835-44 to puit the neutral 1.0850 level in play again.
Logic says to expect support while above 1.08 but beware of month end erratics.
US500 4 HOUR CHART – STOCKS UP AHEAD OF FOMC
Using a CFD feed so levels may differ from other synbols (e.g. SPX500) or even a the same symbol with a different broker.
So look at 5500 as a pivoital level with a void of almost 100 pts above it.
Expect support below the market ahead of the FOMC.
Key event is FOMC, also month end flows.
USDJPY WEEKLY CHART – BOJ SURPRISES
BOJ raises short-term policy rate to 0.25% from 0-0.1%
BOJ to halve monthly bond buying to Y3 trln in Q1 2026
Broadening wage hikes, rising services prices behind move
BOJ will keep raising rates as needed – statement (Source Reuters)
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Stays offered while below 151.84 former double bottom
150.25 is next key support but 150 is the obvious target
Trendline is in the 148s, break would coinfirm what we already know.
145.89 is the key target if 150 is broken,
140.19 is a major target
Above 151.84-152.00 would be needed to slow the threat,
BoJ likely lurking to slow the downside, not reverse it,
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